Hobby through 2014 so far

[kamikidEFFL]

Hey guys now I know we had a thread up not to long ago and well I wanted to ask what have people seen so far this year happening with the hobby. What's hot what's not. Are people shying away from stuff now or are people all about this particular set at this moment. Also, any predictions for the remaining of the year.

I myself have just basically watched my two sets the 1934 & 1938 Goudey sets. As always in the 34 the Gehrig stays hot but some of the higher end and higher grades seem to become a little bit easier to get for reasonable prices which is great for me. I haven't been watching the 38 set as much and haven't done much research. But from what I have seen is the stuff is staying pretty steady.

Anyway guys let's hear what you have seen so far into 2014 we are almost at the half way point.

[Bicem]

Seems like the price gap between the really good and rare stuff and the "on ebay everyday" stuff keeps widening.

I think overall the hobby is off to a strong year in terms of prices being realized.

[shernan30]

With some of the prices at the auction houses, it's a sellers market. Buyers seem to be paying a premium for most cards recently.


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[Leon]

Originally Posted by Bicem

Seems like the price gap between the really good and rare stuff and the "on ebay everyday" stuff keeps widening.

I think overall the hobby is off to a strong year in terms of prices being realized.

Agreed. The nicest cards stay put and the other "everyday" ones keep recirculating. The best ones are going up in price/value and the others are stagnant or down just a little. I do see a ton of buyers, sellers and collectors (some new ones too) in the hobby, which is a good thing too..

[Exhibitman]

Nearly all of the dealers at our most recent show reported strong sales. A few said it was their best day ever.

I think it is stuff in the middle--decent but not spectacular--that is getting killed right now. I think it is guys like me--who can't afford the best but who can afford and traditionally purchased in the upper middle end of cards--who are sitting on their wallets or downshifting to lower grade cards to minimize risk and cost. I've seen an increase in low-end sales and lots of competition for the bottom [two of the 'best day ever' guys from our show specialize in low end]. There are lots of people collecting on modest budgets, which is nice to see again. I was very surprised at what I've sold lately. Some things I hadn't even thought were worth packing sold at our show, and other items I consigned with my fingers crossed are selling too.

[jbsports33]

We had a really good solid March and April, but as we get closer to summer I am starting to see prices come down and less interest. Online seems to be okay, but with many of the outdoor shows and auctions around, the indoor shows which we do most of the time have faded off a bit. We have seen a good selection of items and collections to buy this spring and have some good inventory, but it always needs to be the right items that need to be included. Like early pre-war issues!

Jimmy

[arc2q]

I am so new to serious vintage collecting so it is hard for me to say but I wonder if prices / sales tend to peak every year around the beginning of the baseball season. Does excitement about baseball get more people thinking and buying? Or is there historically no perceived link between vintage cardboard and the real world of baseball?

[6-4-3memorabilia]

There is something too that, Baseball is in the air in the Spring and Summer and I know I tend to buy more then than in the winter. I also notice the prices jump a bit in November and December for gifts I am assuming that's the reason anyway.

Originally Posted by arc2q

I am so new to serious vintage collecting so it is hard for me to say but I wonder if prices / sales tend to peak every year around the beginning of the baseball season. Does excitement about baseball get more people thinking and buying? Or is there historically no perceived link between vintage cardboard and the real world of baseball?

[Bosox Blair]

Pretty much 5 months into the year and I have been unable to win a single pre-war card via auction on eBay. This is unprecedented for me - I've been buying since 1998 on eBay. There is a lot less inventory than in prior years...and when I put in a fair or even aggressive bid, I get smoked.

On the other hand I have won a fair few lots from the auction houses. Some at better prices than I was expecting. Though overall I think auction houses are getting strong prices too.

It is still early, but I think 2014 is showing the strongest pre-war prices of any year since the late 2008 crash.

Cheers,
Blair

[T205 GB]

I unfortunately only dabble with 205's. BIN prices are way to high but great deals can be had via auctions. I have seen a huge price spike in the Pied 42 205's, while the Cycle ballon had popped as expected. AB's have risen a bit for mid to high end and BL have soared. Drum and Hindu have stayed high due to command and scarcity. SP's with Cycle backs have greatly increased over their Pied 25 and Hassan backs.

I am sure some of the new finds like Collins yellow elephant, PB White no/partial quotes, Miller backs, and the HLC Lathams will start to command way more as more recognition is given. I do think the Matty Cycle will continue to decline though. Only hyped up due to the player IMO.

Overall I think the 205 set will drastically grow this yr with a bunch of new collectors out there now.

[kamikidEFFL]

I really like reading everyone's thoughts

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by kamikidEFFL

I really like reading everyone's thoughts

Dammit my tin foil hat must be on the fritz!

[25801wv]

I think the prices on 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth's & 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle's must be approaching record highs (in any condition). The lowest condition Ruth's are going for $600+, when just a year or two ago I could get the same one for $400-$450. Don't even get me started on the Mantle. I think it is on everyone's wish list right now (including mine) and it will cost close to $4,000 to get one that has been run over by a tank.

[Orioles1954]

Outside of Ruth, 1930s material is still very, very soft. For example, prices on the 1933 Tattoo Orbit set are down nearly 50% below their high mark of 2010.

[Jantz]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Pretty much 5 months into the year and I have been unable to win a single pre-war card via auction on eBay. This is unprecedented for me - I've been buying since 1998 on eBay. There is a lot less inventory than in prior years...and when I put in a fair or even aggressive bid, I get smoked.
Cheers,
Blair

+1

You're not the only one Blair.

Same situation with me.


Jantz

[Hankphenom]

I think it's been long enough now (a year or so) for me to say that eBay is a shadow of its former self when it comes to old stuff. I've never done much with cards, but for memorabilia, it seems to have pretty much died. There used to be a steady stream of nice stuff, and even just bottom feeding could get you some great deals on old and fairly rare pieces. Now I see them occasionally, but it's a trickle, nothing like it was. Anybody else see it that way, and if so, what's the explanation? Is "America's Yard Sale" running dry?

[jbsports33]

I have seen the same thing on eBay and at shows that memorabilia has been falling off the cliff - I tend to just buy what I like and focus on cards for now, but when I see a nice baseball, bat or glove and maybe colorful paper items I tend to still buy it. There is no question I am not focused on memorabilia like I was a few years back when items got strong prices. Rare items still can, but that type of stuff is hard to replace and there is much more cards to buy and sell. I am sure at some point memorabilia will get back on track, which is why I still keep looking.

Jimmy

[glynparson]

I would've been able to find low grade goudey ruths for $400-$450 a year to two years ago. i would've bought everyone I saw.

[bbcard1]

In late 2013 I finished piecing together a lower grade DeLong set for much less than I would have thought possible. Buys have seemed few and far in between since. I have putzed around with a couple of 50s and 60s Topps sets, of which there seems to be a virtually unlimited number of cards, it just takes patience to get them at the right price.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I think it's been long enough now (a year or so) for me to say that eBay is a shadow of its former self when it comes to old stuff. I've never done much with cards, but for memorabilia, it seems to have pretty much died. There used to be a steady stream of nice stuff, and even just bottom feeding could get you some great deals on old and fairly rare pieces. Now I see them occasionally, but it's a trickle, nothing like it was. Anybody else see it that way, and if so, what's the explanation? Is "America's Yard Sale" running dry?

Every time those idiots change their focus and alter what non-store sellers can do it drives away more weekend warrior type sellers. Why should I bother with eBay's latest whim and caprice--and pay 13% of the total including on the shipping--when I can consign to an auctioneer who will do all the work for as low as 15% BP and no commission, with no cost to list? I used to sell 95% on eBay 5% on auction houses; the ratio is now around 75% auctioneer 25% eBay and will get even more lopsided now that eBay is mandating auctions only for non-store sellers if a listing fee is to be avoided.

[kamikidEFFL]

Originally Posted by jbsports33

I have seen the same thing on eBay and at shows that memorabilia has been falling off the cliff - I tend to just buy what I like and focus on cards for now, but when I see a nice baseball, bat or glove and maybe colorful paper items I tend to still buy it. There is no question I am not focused on memorabilia like I was a few years back when items got strong prices. Rare items still can, but that type of stuff is hard to replace and there is much more cards to buy and sell. I am sure at some point memorabilia will get back on track, which is why I still keep looking.

Jimmy

I agree even at auction houses it seems like the memorabilia stuff is not bringing nearly what it should. Is it because there is a ton of autograph stuff out there now. The new hobby is all auto/jerseys/helmets etc rookie cards. If you have a base rookie card it isn't worth the paper it was printed on. Anyway, I am just glad my goudey stuff is going for crazy stupid money.

[jerrys]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Every time those idiots change their focus and alter what non-store sellers can do it drives away more weekend warrior type sellers. Why should I bother with eBay's latest whim and caprice--and pay 13% of the total including on the shipping--when I can consign to an auctioneer who will do all the work for as low as 15% BP and no commission, with no cost to list? I used to sell 95% on eBay 5% on auction houses; the ratio is now around 75% auctioneer 25% eBay and will get even more lopsided now that eBay is mandating auctions only for non-store sellers if a listing fee is to be avoided.

Adam - your evaluation of the difference between consigning and ebay is valid but the fact ebay likely has the greater number of potential bidders perhaps should be considered.

[Exhibitman]

I have considered it, Jerry. For mainstream baseball items it doesn't matter. A good AH reaches enough baseball collectors to make it worthwhile. eBay has a ton of bidders but also has a ton of bidders who are bottom feeders. My experience has been that you either start with a very high opening bid or you take a hit unless you shill your own items, which I won't do.