Old Judge Error Card? and their Premiums

[shernan30]

Since I recently joined the ranks of the Old Judge collectors, I'm always learning or trying to learn something new about the cards. Scouring the auctions and talking with the collectors I've been able to grow my Ohio subset to 10 in a pretty short period of time. Every once in a while I come across a card I question if its really worth the asking price or is it real. That occurred today on a Wild Bill Weidner listed on eBay. The BIN price seemed steep so I took to VCP to get some information. This is where I came across a Wild Bill with his name listed as "Eidner." Looking back at the auction I realized this is a known error card (and I read the description that told me the same. I was on my phone and only looking at the images and title.) There was no value for the "Eidner," but Weidner examples of the same grade are approximately 1/3rd the BIN price.

Thinking about this card and the McGreachery being auctioned by REA what decides the premiums on error cards like this? I understand the market has a big role in setting prices, but on cards that rarely come to market how do you decide what is a good investment price? Would a 3x increase of the non-error be reasonable?