t206 vs 1988 topps... yeah you read that right!

[bn2cardz]

I was recently thinking about production numbers. I was wondering if 1988 topps could have the same fate as t206 in 2088 (or beyond).

According to the book "The Card: Collectors, Con Men and the True History of History's Most Desired Baseball Card" There were 370 Million t206 cards produced.

In 1909 America's population was at 90,490,000 people. That would make there be 4 t206 cards per person.

In 1988 the American population was 244,498,982 That is 270% more people in a America. If t206 would have been made in correlating numbers there would have been nearly 1 billion of them made (999,719,564).

There are 524 accepted t206 fronts. 360mil = aprox 687k sets (obviously this isn't exact as some were DP and some are SP)

There are 792 cards in a 1988 topps set.

To hit the same quantities of the t206 at 687k per front and increased for population (270%) there would have to have been 1,469,129,771 1988 topps cards produced. That is nearly 1.5 BILLION 1988 topps cards. I couldn't find actual production numbers for 1988 topps, but even if it is higher I believe with 1.5 Billion cards from a set floating around. This would feel overwhelming and certainly have no value just as regular 88 topps cards have.

So were t206 the 1988 topps of the day? Were there so many that people that did collect them still felt there were more than enough and so a lot of them got thrown out and destroyed just as 88 topps cards are looked at today. According to the same book they state they believe only 1.6 million are still around. If there would have only been that amount made that would have been 1 per 57 people (instead of 4 for every person). That is a lot destroyed. So those whom think that there are too many cards that would have to be destroyed or trashed to make 1988 topps a worth while collectible really only need to look at the evolution of t206s.

I think about when I die my family will be left with all the 80s cards still taking up room. They will try to get make money off them, but will soon find it isn't worth their time to get someone to buy. So they will be tossed. Some people are already tossing them.

So in 2080 is it possible that the 80s cards will finally hit their once believed potential for income...