T 206 PSA 8 commons

[Archive]

Posted By: Powell

I just say on Ebay some psa 8 T-206 commons going for approximately, $2,500 with many different biddders getting it up to that point. Is this crazy or are high quality T -206's white hot and the true market value is now through the roof? I would also appreciate thoughts on the value of a T -206 Cobb green at PSA 6. A prospective seller told me the estimator is way too low and the market value for this card is 10k? Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated.

[Archive]

Posted By: David Vargha

PSA 8 T206's are a sure money-loser. I read about it in a thread on this very board.

DavidVargha@hotmail.com

[Archive]

Posted By: DJ

$10K for a Green Cobb PSA6? Yeah, a tad high. The estimator is a decent gauge and go from there. There really is no such thing as a Price Guide anymore and basically something is worth what someone is willing to pay at that time. I saw a Bresnahan Portrait SGC50 sell for $179 on one day and that same card sold for $210 the next. Estimator has it at $160.

DJ

[Archive]

Posted By: bruce

II have been a type set collector for 30 years and own many of the Hobby;s
rares type cards in the highest known grade...

Whilst I can appreciate a "common Delong" bringing $2000 in PSA 8
I find it remarkable that a set where there are still at least 200,000 cards
(most of which are yet to be graded) floating around can bring $1500-$2500
a card in an 8 holder/

I was actually able to determine the two winners of last night's E Bay war limit
on all five commons--it was an astounding $2700 per card although two cards
were sold for$1600-1800.

The problem with understanding pricing in this hobby is that the market
for many individual cards is paper thin.

For example, I had a complete run of PSA 8 Federal League 1915 Cracker Jacks
and when I sold it there were only 3 people actively bidding...when the eventual
winner of this collection sold off the duplicates cards, he actually lost money
on 70% of the indvidual lots.

My guess is the two lucky gentlemen from Los Angeles who spent over $11,000
to acquire 5 common T 206's last night would lose 25% of their investment if he
sold the cards on E Bay or through Mastro or Lifson within the next six months.

And when sweet Texas Crude oil hits $120 and the economy radically contracts , there will be
a great deal of old cardboard available even in PSA 8

Welcome your response.

Bruce

[Archive]

Posted By: John

Bravo, Bruce well said!

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

Bruce is right on the money. Oil is going to crack $100 per barrel by the end of the year and it is going to bring on stagflation like we had in the 1970s after the last oil shock. As far as I am concerned, high grade commons are going to take the first hits. I know there will always be a ready market for a $200 HOFer; not so for a $2,000 Joe Shlabotnik.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

"PSA 8 T206's are a sure money-loser. I read about it in a thread on this very board."

I am assuming for purposes of this post that this quote is dripping with sarcasm. That being said, nobody is suggesting that PSA 8 T206 cards aren't selling now for a lot of money. The debate is over whether these are rational investments over some period of time. The overwhelming evidence is to the contrary. Bruce's post above should give high grade common collectors some pause.

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

For the sake of the folks buying those high dollar commons I want to be devils advocate for a minute. I do agree this high grade phenomenon could be a house of cards and these commons have far more volatility than HOF'ers. However, again for the sake of argument, even when/if gas reaches $5 a gallon is it really going to matter to the 2-3 guys paying 3k for a PSA 8 common T206? As long as you have at least 2 buyers (my assumption is they don't personally get hurt at the gas pump) then the prices will remain high. Just my 1/2 cent...and no I am not playing the registry game and don't necessarily collect high grade cards. regards

[Archive]

Posted By: Bill Kasel

Right on Bruce...very well said. I must admit I'm not at a point in my life where I'd even consider a $1500+ card (two young kids are sucking my account dry - God Bless 'em) So short term my Poor to VG/EX cards are within my spending limits. Long term, I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Adam, Joe Shlabotnik!!??? That is awesome! It's always good to wake up with a laugh. Sometimes I feel like the Charlie Brown of collecting when that darned Halla and E95 Cobb just elude me.

Bill

"The beer I had for breakfast wasn't bad, so I had one more for dessert"

[Archive]

Posted By: John

Leon, you make a very valid point I agree. The folks who drop thousands of dollars say for arguments sake on Joe Shlabotnik (Adam too funny!) wont care if gas is $1 or $10 a gallon. That wont put this high-grade high dollar card craze in check.

However with that said, these guys seem to flip cards a lot more than say the old school guys, to either make money or obtain new items. All it will take is a couple of handfuls of these big spenders to get boned a few 10k here and there. When they slowly find out they were the victims of (Auction Hype, Bidding Wars, Meaningless Pop Reports etc.) and thier super rare super high-grade card is only worth a fraction of the purchase price come time to sell. Most of these guys will bolt from the hobby pretty quick that’s just my gut feeling.

We always say what a bad thing reprints are for the hobby and how it can turn off new blood by having a bad experience. I often wonder how this is any different when a guy falls victim to hype and un-necessary prices. Seems losing thousands of dollars even if you have it to lose is a bad feeling any way you dice it.

[Archive]

Posted By: Tom Boblitt

a GAI 8 T206 on ebay for a friend. The price variances on those are HUGE.....$800 to $3000 and everything in between. I know the pop reports are driving it, but it's just ridiculous.

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

the folks who pay big bucks for cards by and large earn big bucks from their businesses and passive investments. when a recession hits, it hits broadly, as it did in the 70s and kills real estate, stocks, bonds and business activity in general. if the rich folks' portfolios take a hit at the same time their businesses slow to a crawl the first thing their wives will insist on is no more of those silly cards (and yes, no matter how rich and powerful you think you are, you will knuckle under for the sake of peace in your home, so don't give me that "I wear the pants" stuff ). that's where the real threat is in these cards.

[thescooper]

oil is $110 now so how are those PSA 8 commons going for?

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Archive

Posted By: bruce

And when sweet Texas Crude oil hits $120 and the economy radically contracts, there will be
a great deal of old cardboard available even in PSA 8

Welcome your response.

Bruce

How prophetic for a post from 2005. Not so much the price of oil, although that is fairly impressive. Prognosticating on crude futures after Hurricane Katrina was in vogue back then, if I remember correctly. More so, the macroeconomic prediction about the recession experienced somewhat shortly after Bruce wrote this is what I am talking about.

Originally Posted by thescooper

Oil is $110 now so how are those PSA 8 commons going for?

I, too, wonder if the is a correlation between the two.

There are many lawyers on this board who discuss the legality of certain matters. Are there any economists, whether by profession or happenstance, on Net54? If so, I would welcome a discussion on this topic.

Best regards,

Eric