Do VCP and CardTarget show a better picture than POP reports?

[bn2cardz]

Recently there have been a couple threads where it has been mentioned that Population reports don't give a full picture of what is out there. I was curious if it was posted that there have only been so many reported having been sold by VCP and Cardtarget along with posting pop reports would this be a more acceptable way of displaying known market quantities?

I know there is still a hole because some cards may be sold in lots so neither past sales sites have the data for that. Also those past sale sites don't catch sales at shows and between two collectors outside an auction site. I would think it helps get a better picture.

For instance I have a t206 card with a tougher back (since I may be selling it soon I don't want to say which card so it doesn't look like I am advertising it here). This card is in a psa holder, but was graded before backs were looked at by psa so looking at the PSA pop report there are none graded. Looking at the SGC pop report there are two. VCP and Cardtarget do not show any past sales of any raw or graded. I have found pictures online of one of the SGC cards but it is the only picture I can find of one online, from what I can tell it is in a private collection of someone doing a back set.

So in this case if I just looked at pop reports it would show that there were only two graded. When in reality there are at least three including the one I am holding. Yet looking at VCP or Cardtarget you would say there are none known from past auctions. Which is also not true, because the one I own came in a lot of cards in an auction within the past year. So though it isn't fail proof would it be safe to say that combining the pop reports with past known sales sites could give a fuller picture and thus would be a better way of advertising the card instead of only counting on POP reports?

[AMBST95]

As far as advertising, i know some auction houses just add a disclaimer saying PSA only recently included the back info. I would list it as 1 of 3 known to be graded when doing the listing because there really is no way to know otherwise. Even if you saw a photo of another card graded similarly to yours by PSA, how do you know it wasn't a crossover from what you see on the SGC report? You don't know. Hell, the 2 SGCs could be a crack and resubmit, you don't know. As far as VCP or Cardtarget, I think they do miss a lot of transactions, but they can give you a rough idea on pricing if recent. If it's a rare back, like yours, and it hasn't been sold in the past six months, the values that you see are meaningless since the prices have exploded. I don't think you can gain too much else from their data or lack thereof in the example you've given.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by AMBST95

As far as VCP or Cardtarget, I think they do miss a lot of transactions, but they can give you a rough idea on pricing if recent. If it's a rare back, like yours, and it hasn't been sold in the past six months, the values that you see are meaningless since the prices have exploded. I don't think you can gain too much else from their data or lack thereof in the example you've given.

My thinking it is that since there are absolutely none sold in the past it is possible that it does show they seldom come up for sale and may indicate that in this case it backs up the population reports to some extent.

I will say that since I found one of the SGC cards online there is no way it was a crack and resubmit for the other card. The one I find is a 1 with a rip, the other one is higher than a one.

I was only using this one card as an example. The other reason I brought it up is because I have seen auctions lately saying "1 of 3" known from population reports, but you can go to VCP and/or cardtarget and see that several raw ones have sold, or maybe even PSA ones prior to the back tracking. Since Cardtarget even keeps a database of photos wouldn't it make sense if a company is going to list pop reports that they should also look at the info given by VCP and Cardtarget to give a more full picture of the market for any given card?

[AMBST95]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

I was only using this one card as an example. The other reason I brought it up is because I have seen auctions lately saying "1 of 3" known from population reports, but you can go to VCP and/or cardtarget and see that several raw ones have sold, or maybe even PSA ones prior to the back tracking. Since Cardtarget even keeps a database of photos wouldn't it make sense if a company is going to list pop reports that they should also look at the info given by VCP and Cardtarget to give a more full picture of the market for any given card?

Why would it be in an auction's or seller's best interest to make a rare collectible appear to be less rare? Could they use these sources for more accurate descriptions, sure. Is there an incentive to not do it, sure. Is the seller being inaccurate by using the population reports to make an item sound more appealing, no.

I think as a buyer, scanning multiple auction listings and comparing photos on VCP and Cardtarget makes sense if trying to compile the most accurate sales history for a specific card, but if selling, that's a lot of legwork to make your item less desirable. The number of raw cards basically throw most of it out the window though as you never know for sure how many are out there. If you found 2 raw cards and the 3 graded, now you have 5 that you know of. There are still going to be others you have no clue about. Look at the new T206 discoveries still happening 104 years after production. We will never know for sure.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by AMBST95

Why would it be in an auction's or seller's best interest to make a rare collectible appear to be less rare? Could they use these sources for more accurate descriptions, sure. Is there an incentive to not do it, sure. Is the seller being inaccurate by using the population reports to make an item sound more appealing, no.

I think as a buyer, scanning multiple auction listings and comparing photos on VCP and Cardtarget makes sense if trying to compile the most accurate sales history for a specific card, but if selling, that's a lot of legwork to make your item less desirable. The number of raw cards basically throw most of it out the window though as you never know for sure how many are out there. If you found 2 raw cards and the 3 graded, now you have 5 that you know of. There are still going to be others you have no clue about. Look at the new T206 discoveries still happening 104 years after production. We will never know for sure.

You may be missing the point. I never said you would get a full picture. I actually said quite the opposite:

"I know there is still a hole because some cards may be sold in lots so neither past sales sites have the data for that. Also those past sale sites don't catch sales at shows and between two collectors outside an auction site. I would think it helps get a better picture."

My point is that if you are going to try and get a full picture why wouldn't you use all the data out there? Why do people (Sellers and Buyers alike) stop at the POP reports? If looking for a full picture of the scarcity of a card wouldn't it behoove you to look at at these extra two sites?

You say it makes the card sound less desirable, but you are just making yourself seem less honest if you are going to say 1 of 1 card when a quick look from a diligent buyer would show that there have been many other sales (maybe even by your own company). Also you are wrong about making it look less desirable, in the case of my card it would make it more desirable (if it is sought after at all) because I can now say it is "1 of 3 known graded cards AND with no single card sales history since VCP and Card Targets inceptions in the hobby".

[AMBST95]

I agree with you that looking at the sites makes sense as a buyer, which is what I said, so I understand your point of looking at them. Your original question was do they show a better picture than POP reports. In the case of your card, there is no sales data, so using just these could create a false impression just as much as using the pop reports alone. The truth is they are both tools that are not entirely accurate and the use of both is better than either individually.

As a seller, the lack of sales on these sites could be favorable if used appropriately in the listing, as you've suggested. Neither are all inclusive of sales activity but a statement worded "no card sales history registered in VCP or Cardtarget" may be helpful as you've implied. It could also hurt. A buyer may be less willing to make a strong bid, not wanting to set a benchmark with no previous history to base their bid on, in fear of taking a loss down the road.

If I were consigning, I'd want my card listed in the most favorable light. Any sales data could cause a buyer to put a cap on what they'd consider bidding. Thats the last thing i want as a seller. The population data is generally only included with cards that have lower pops. It suggests rarity while not putting a number or lack of one in a buyer's mind to ponder like VCP data might do.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by AMBST95

I agree with you that looking at the sites makes sense as a buyer, which is what I said, so I understand your point of looking at them. Your original question was do they show a better picture than POP reports. In the case of your card, there is no sales data, so using just these could create a false impression just as much as using the pop reports alone. The truth is they are both tools that are not entirely accurate and the use of both is better than either individually.

As a seller, the lack of sales on these sites could be favorable if used appropriately in the listing, as you've suggested. Neither are all inclusive of sales activity but a statement worded "no card sales history registered in VCP or Cardtarget" may be helpful as you've implied. It could also hurt. A buyer may be less willing to make a strong bid, not wanting to set a benchmark with no previous history to base their bid on, in fear of taking a loss down the road.

If I were consigning, I'd want my card listed in the most favorable light. Any sales data could cause a buyer to put a cap on what they'd consider bidding. Thats the last thing i want as a seller. The population data i s generally only included with cards that have lower pops. It suggests rarity while not putting a number or lack of one in a buyer's mind to ponder like VCP data might do.

Without seeing a card, a price and condition comparison, is almost irrelevant. And as a devils advocate, strong price history can help a cards final price too.