T206 backs will continue to go up?

[Leon]

It seems one of the few areas of pre-war collecting that has really gone up meteorically is the collecting of rare T206 backs. Even some that haven't been considered rare are rising with the other ones. Do you think they will continue to go up? Come down?

[Gradedcardman]

I have been doing my own research for about 6 months and have continued to see the collectors beating down the doors and records for backs other than the common 4 (OM, SC, PB and Piedmont). The common 4, of course, is NOT inclusive of the Factory 42 Piedmont. With the rarest being so hard to get a hold of and pricey, it seems the next 10 in some form of order are rising. Fun times to be trying to collect Player backs !!

Looking for Schlei Portrait Backs !!

[barrysloate]

Anything that rises too much too quickly is highly likely to fall at some point.

[ChiefBenderForever]

What do they say, 'What goes up.....

It wouldn't take very much for a slide to take place, then a surgence of backs flooding the market going for much less than current values. As always, only takes two people to drive up a card, but have noticed some good deals lately and just means that others already have that card.
I do think they will hold great value and not drop like the E series but again doesn't take much to sway movement one way or the other. When it's hot it's hot, when it's not.............

[barrysloate]

T206 rare backs have been in demand for as long as I've been in the hobby. There was never a time that collectors didn't go after them. Despite that, I've seen them rise and fall over the years. It will probably happen again. That's just the way the "Cycle" works.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Anything that rises too much too quickly is highly likely to fall at some point.

I think Barry said it best so far although I'd replace the words "Highly Likely" to "Will" fall at some point.

[barrysloate]

This is an interesting poll because each time I check the results are split nearly right down the middle.

[sportscardpete]

I probably have the least amount of experience on this board, but to my understanding are Broadleaf 350's even that rare? Brown Hindus?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

This is an interesting poll because each time I check the results are split nearly right down the middle.

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

I should add that I do think it's human nature and ok to be protective of what we collect. I am protective of things I collect.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Leon

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

[barrysloate]

To answer Pete's question, brown Hindus and BL350 are not rare and are currently selling for obscene prices. That doesn't mean they won't get more expensive, but they seem to be grossly overpriced. But I don't make the market.

[ChiefBenderForever]

Sellers- Yes
Back collectors with a huge stash- Yes
Buyers- NO

Reality- Buy what you like and can afford and it won't matter

[barrysloate]

Does anyone remember the mania a few years back for D304's? Remember when Goodwin broke up a set and cards like Matty and Cy Young in PSA 5 or 6 were going for about 40K each? What are they worth today?

[marcdelpercio]

The most remarkable to me have been the brown Hindus. I posted a few lower grade commons about a year ago, looking for around $100 each (cash or trade) and had no takers. Now I'm seeing similar cards go for 3-4x that amount. I have always thought that some of the middle-tier backs (EPDG, Tolstoi, Cycle, AB) were a bit undervalued so I thought a slight price adjustment was due for those. However I do think that the outrageous prices on some of the others will come back down to earth, probably just as rapidly as they rose.

[ChiefBenderForever]

And even though it's just one person who is working on the master set, prices immediatley started to go up when he started buying anything he didn't have. With several people looking for cards for him how many were bidding against each other trying to get the cards he needed ? Again just one person but one person can make a huge difference in price and create an inflated situation where everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon driving up demand/price.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by ChiefBenderForever

Sellers- Yes
Back collectors with a huge stash- Yes
Buyers- NO

Reality- Buy what you like and can afford and it won't matter

I voted yes and don't really fit into any of those categories. I have a lot of t206s but only have 1-3 examples of most backs that aren't common and havent collected them for years. I think the prices will go up on most but not all of the backs and people say, well I can't afford a drum but I can get a bunch of other backs for that same price, and eventually it trickles down to people who can't afford Hindu's so they go after cycle, EPDG, etc.

Basically my long answer would be the rare stuff stays high, mid stuff might go up a little but the slightly tough ones will see a big increase

[Vegas-guy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

I don't collect the backs and I voted "yes" There will always be people looking for the "rare" things. And as more and more people start to collect they will only go up because of demand. Just my .02 cents

[Gradedcardman]

I agree with Barry that at some point the prices on the rarer backs will come down. The mid level backs I think will level off and continue to carry a premium but not more than a 2x-4x depending on player. Supply and demand ultimately decide the value of everything, in time it will all sort itself out.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

T206 rare backs have been in demand for as long as I've been in the hobby. There was never a time that collectors didn't go after them. Despite that, I've seen them rise and fall over the years. It will probably happen again. That's just the way the "Cycle" works.

In terms of rare backs of common players, I think Barry hit the nail right on the head. Thanks to the writings of Q. David Bowers in the coin field, the phenomena of cycles became well known. When the item in question is at least in the scarce to very scarce realm, however, even at the end of the cycle, when the value has drifted back downward, it usually ends up higher than when the up cycle started. This will likely be the case with even the rare backs of common T206'ers, in light of the very large number of people who collect T206.

On the other hand, if we're talking very rare backs of upper echelon HOF'ers like Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson, etc., these may well be less subject to the cycling phenomena, at least in terms of the magnitude of the up and down swings. Demand will remain very, very high, and nearly constant, with little lull in the action. Much of the demand will derive from true collectors, who will give such cards very good homes for many, many years, thereby reducing the available supply drastically, while, for the truly rare ones, doing little to satisfy still overwhelming demand. I believe these cards are still emerging in our hobby, and will continue to appreciate as highly valued collectibles do, at a compound rate of interest that will make their values seem truly amazing several decades from now.

I watched a new episode of "Chasing Classic Cars" last night (that I had previously recorded) which featured a 1967 Ferrari Luzzo that a then 41-year-old man had purchased new in Italy in that year for $4,500. Tack on another $1,000 for shipping it to the U.S., and his initial investment was $5500. The show's host/star, Wayne Carini, indicated that there were only 300-some made, and that the car's current value, after undergoing only a moderate restoration (the car was in very nice original shape) would be in the $700,000 to $800,000 range. That reflects a compound interest rate of appreciation of around 11%. The mega-stars of the T206's are the "Ferrari's" of card collecting, and I would expect the best of the best players, coupled with the rarest backs available, to do quite well over time, with perhaps little of the cycling effect (see the M-101 Ruth rookie for an analogous example, which has been on a nearly constant rise since at least the very early '90's).

Great post and best regards Leon,

Larry

[Leon]

Larry, that was a nice, well thought out post. I have to agree with you on it. Case in point. I am not really a T206 back collector more than any other backs, as I do collect backs in general. I always wanted one of the classic poses of Cy Young, his green portrait in T206. People will always know Young as the holder of the most wins record as well as the yearly Cy Young award for most wins. So, when a board member put this one on the BST I figured it was a nice one with great centering and focus, with a scarce back to boot, so bought it for about 2k. I don't know if it will go up much but I wouldn't expect it to go down in value, for all of the reasons mentioned.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Vegas-guy

I don't collect the backs and I voted "yes" There will always be people looking for the "rare" things. And as more and more people start to collect they will only go up because of demand. Just my .02 cents

Reg- I agree rare things do tend to go up in value, but some of the backs showing a huge increase aren't rare. Drums and Uzits are very difficult backs indeed; brown Hindu, EPDG, American Beauty are not. They are less common than Piedmont and Sweet Cap, but they aren't rare.

Edited to add that with regard to Leon's Young portrait with Brown Hindu back, that's kind of special and I would say there's a good chance it will hold its value. Seems to me there will always be a strong market for a card like that.

[Ronnie73]

I voted yes, and I am a T206 back collector. I think they will continue to rise in price but then fall back a bit. There has been alot of interest during the past few years in the T206 set with it now being 100 years old and Topps putting out their newer version of the T206's with original inserts. I just feel that there are alot of newer T206 collectors that didn't pay much attention to them before and that their extra bids and interest may be driving up the prices.

[smtjoy]

IMO the rapid rise in value is most likely a collector with deep pockets has decided to work on a T-206 Master Set, when this person is bidding all out for every tough back, they all start to go up crazy but in time as they have more and more of the mid backs they will go down but if they are going all out for every drum and uzit that hits the market, prices on the hardest ones might not go down for a long, long time, or really till the day the collection sells or they stop buying.

As a back collector in M101-4/5's if one whale collector decided to buy every Gimbels, HtH, Everybodys, etc and work on a master set of all backs of all players, because these sets only have like 0-2 copies of each card the prices would rise fast and stay there. In effect all the type, team and player collectors would be locked out and would drive the market up pretty fast. If I can't get a Mall Theater for $500 then next time ill bid $600, that doesn't work then the next time $650 and so on until a dupe shows up if never they just keep going up.

[toppcat]

I think this board has contributed in a major ways to the awareness and growing popularity of T206 backs. I also think more people are collecting these backs than many of you might realize, either for a back run or acquiring certain players with all backs. I suspect this trend will continue.

At one point I was going for a back run but decided not to complete it and sold off a few of the tougher backs I had. My T206 focus is now on Brooklyn only but I can always do a run of backs in the team set if I get the urge again, plus some folks like Teddy Z. have collected a set in one back type or another so there are at least four different ways to collect the backs, which will keep them in play for quite a while. There are not too many other sets like T206 as we all know and the backs are one reason the Monster remains the king of sets.

[philliesphan]

I collect T206 backs, but I put most of my rare backs together 5-10 years ago.

Frankly, a 520 card T206 "set" is fairly easy to do. If you have the money, you could probably put together that sort of set in a week or two. The backs provide a differentiating factor that brings rarity to the equation in a way that the fronts do not.

Unless one of the uber back collectors decides to sell off, I don't see any reason that valuations will decline. Even the finds of Uzit and Drums over the past three or four years have done nothing to diminish the rise in prices. If anything, you can argue that greater accessibility helped foster greater demand.

[mrvster]

Leon,


Great thread, and all the other posts were well thought out and brought up great points, WE NEED JIM R AND TIM TO CHIME IN.....brown hindus and broadleafs are off the charts the last year, i see them leveling off a bit , but not going down just slowly appreciating but not at the rate of the last year....

btw i voted yes.....

as you know i love the scrap/freaks, but my supply has dried up, so i am focusing on some of the tougher backs to fill my addiction...hence another competitor me also driving up prices

simple economics=supply and demand...

the supply will change as collector focus changes,(some collectors will move some and start selling) the actual supply will, of course, remain constantly the same since no more can be printed and unless huge discoveries deflate some of the rarer backs, they will continue to rise!! unless everyone decided to flood the market all at once and start selling all there rarities as long as demand increases, or remains consistent..as long as the collectors desire the t206 rarities(which i only see the rising interest as pointed out in previous posts)..

Popularity of the set just increases every year, so more competition for the supply will continue to "push" prices up....i see the cards (rarer), appreciating at a greater rate than inflation % wise....this also might make for a good investment(yes, unfortunately they are "tiny" stocks), but unless your buying low and selling high, you might be just a humble collector not looking to make cash in the short run.....some would stronly disagree as investment potential, but the proof is in the pudding....it would be coins or gold/silver for me if i wasn't addicted


We would need actual data to trend the back increases, i can almost guarentee if you plotted the rarer back over the last ten year period, all of the trends lines would be a solid increase year to year, with very few staying the same(common backs because less of a demand, more of a supply)...


summation:
yes...they will continue to increase, but different rarities at different rates, but the trends will remain just like they have, given the continued interest and focus of the set , and increased collectors....as some collectors start dabbling in the commons, they "get bitten by the monster" and feel the need for rarer and better cards, also pushing up demand on the rarities...

look at all the rarities in the set...dem, magie, plank, just to mention a few....these could be good indicators on the rare back trends, HAS ANY OF THESE RARITIES DECREASED OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS?? you can expect the rarities to follow similiar trends of the big cards in the set...


phew! my business degree was talking here sorry

hope it wasn't too much babble....



btw....if anyone interested in bailing, i'll take your freaks/scraps or rarer backs

get out while the goings goodLOL!!!just email me



Peace

Johnny V


(the original Johnny V), anyone else is just an imposter...

[Bicem]

reminds me of the e-card craze a few years ago, prices will come back down.

[bcbgcbrcb]

My guess is wishful thinking on the part of those who collect them.

If a poll was taken about the future value of HOF RC's, I would say that they would go up because that is what I collect. I'm sure that others who have no interest in those cards (or actually despise them as I know some collectors do) would anticipate a decline just as I would for the rare back T206's, which I have no interest in.

[Bicem]

HOF rookies is so diverse though, some issues will go up and some will go down.