How many of us are there?

[rdixon1208]

Threads come up from time to time regarding the future of our hobby, and it's got me wondering...how many of us are there? I know of five pre-war collectors in the Houston area, one in San Antonio, and about five in the Dallas area. I've only been in the hobby for about three years, so I'm sure to meet more people in time, but that's not many people for one of the biggest (and best ) states in the Union.

So if you had to put a number on it, how many active pre-war baseball card collectors do you think there are?

[Jewish-collector]

My question is HOW MANY are not members or lurkers of this message board ?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

so if you had to put a number on it, how many active pre-war baseball card collectors do you think there are?

3143

[triwak]

My guess: 3144
Thanks for the contest, Leon!!

[Matthew H]

If I had to guess I'd say there's more then 12 in Texas.

[sbfinley]

United States estimated population on June 22 2011 - 311,603,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._by_population

Of that 311,603,000, around 75.7% are over the age of 18. That gives us around 235,883,471 "adults".
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

A PEW Research Center poll show that 46% of Americans follow sports. 28% percent only "somewhat" follow sports, so that leaves up 18% who follow sports "very close." I figure that you have to at least follow sports very closely to invest a fortune in century old cardboard. 18% of 235,883,471 equals 42,459,024 .
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/?ChartID=135

Taking into account that Baseball is likely your favorite sport if you are a pre-war baseball collector- According to the Sports Business Journal, 17% of American sports fans selected Baseball as their favorite sport. 17% of 42,459,024 is 7,218,034. So upwards of 7 million Americans love baseball more than any other sport.
http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/66/un...ns-call-soccer

Although kids aged 7-11 were the focus of this poll, it was the most relevant I could find and the ESPN/TNS Intersearch poll showed that 37% of children aged 7-11 collected sports cards. 49.8% of that 37% collected baseball. I believe it plausible that if 37% of all children age 7-11 collect sports cards then we can ascertain that of the 7 million Americans who "love" baseball at least 37% will dabble in sports cards during adulthood. 37% of 7,218,034 is 2,670,672. If 49.8% collect baseball that gives us 1,305,959 adult baseball card collectors.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/D...tandclose=true

For the sake of argument, because google is running dry, let's say that one-third of adult baseball collectors "actively collect". 33.3% of 1,305,959 is 434,884 "Adult Americans actively collecting baseball cards".

On ebay there are 2,206,747 results for baseball cards, 34,380 of which were listed under the "Pre-WW2" era. Considering one can now argue ebay is the ultimate market for sports collectibles, 1.5% of the baseball card market is pre-war.
http://sports-cards.shop.ebay.com/Ba...=p3286.c0.m282

If the market is a reflection of the population, a fair argument, then 1.5%, or 19,589, of the adult baseball collector population actively collects pre-war.


That being said, I am feeling a little verklempt. Rhode Island is neither a road nor is it an island. Discuss.

[scooter729]

Kudos to you for all of that math, esp. considering it was posted at 4AM your local time!

[T206Collector]

20,000, plus or minus, sounds right to me.

[4815162342]

Steven, what kind of coffee do you drink?!

[Ladder7]

... and how much?

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by scooter729

Kudos to you for all of that math, esp. considering it was posted at 4AM your local time!

I'm a bartender so my 4 a.m. is about like your 7 p.m.

[atx840]

Its lonely up here in Canada.

[almostdone]

Originally Posted by Leon

3143

This is the first I've seen Leon so far off.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by almostdone

This is the first I've seen Leon so far off.

I want a recount!!! I can't believe there are 10,000+ pre-war baseball card collectors....take out the dealers and count just collectors....I think my number is closer than the other SWAG number that was deduced using the US population.....nothing against that guess, I just politely disagree with it. (not the population numbers, the collector numbers) ...regards

[judsonhamlin]

I think Leon's number is probably not too far off. From what I have seen, at the Nationals and the bigger regional shows, even when they were better (EPSCC, Strongsville, Robert Morris) and there are/were never more than a few hundred people focusing on pre-war cards (as opposed to the 50's/60's crowd). And, presuming that the committed collectors would go out of their way for a big show, I would think that a show like that might attract 5-10% of all collectors, then maybe 3000-5000 is a reasonable number.
Maybe Ted/Bill Z/Mike W or another pre-war dealer can confirm the numbers of customers they see at a typical show.

[deadballera]

how many are registered on this forum ?


I would guess total collectors to be closer to the 3,000 than the 5,000 range. Might even be in the low 2,000 range


Todd

[alanu]

I'll say closer to 10,000... using my scientific method... try to follow me..... 50 states times 200 per state sounds reasonable

[Leon]

Originally Posted by alanu

I'll say closer to 10,000... using my scientific method... try to follow me..... 50 states times 200 per state sounds reasonable

I still politely disagree...though there might be a few more in some states, I think there would be far fewer in many states. I think the 3k-5k is a good number as a guess.

As far as users on the board....very close to 2500 total....but that counts dealers, memorabilia (only) guys, and some handfuls of folks that only came here for finds and other specific questions, and are not collectors otherwise. Then we have to count all of the Brucii....I forgot about them....that number could be in the......1s.......

Also, a pat on our own back ...a little bit. I do think this board helps the hobby grow in getting folks more involved with pre-war cards. I think that number is quite a bit too...maybe several hundred or so...

[uffda51]

3129

[almostdone]

I think part of it would also have to be how active a collector is. I collect both pre and post war cards. I prefer post-war, mainly because of budget and personal family history, but still have and love pre-war cards.

I probably add 2 to 10 pre war cards a year while adding more like 20 - 30 post war a year. I would consider myself only a casual pre war collector but still a collector none the less.

I also have never attended a show for pre war purchases. Maily because there just aren't that many around this part of the country. But every time I'm in an antique store or auction I am always on the look out for the next "find" in my collection.

If you consider casual collectors then wouldn't the total number increase?

Just my opinion,
Drew

[Leon]

Originally Posted by almostdone

If you consider casual collectors then wouldn't the total number increase?

Just my opinion,
Drew

Depends on if you were counting them to start with . Assuming you weren't then yes, of course. Also, I was just guessing at the number just like others and that was my guess, no more and no less. Heck, if it was 20,000, I wouldn't fall off my rocker....I dunno....just havin' fun talking about it...

[wonkaticket]

Depends on what you call a vintage collector, if you're counting card collectors who also enjoy the occasional T206 or 1933 Goudey amongst his or her 50's 60's shiny stuff I would agree on the 20k number.

If you are talking folks who really on have his or her wheel house in pre-war I would tend to agree with Leon you're talking way less than 20k...

John

[hunterdutchess]

I guess 90% resellers and 10% collectors. Most of the items I sell are listed a week later for a higher bin price. Makes me wonder if only collectors were bidding, I bet we would see a 50%+ price dip.

[carrigansghost]

I know of only 3 prewar collectors residing in Maine.

Rawn

[sportscardpete]

I think New York has a pretty nice population of collectors. Haven't met them personallty but there are soo many people here there's bound to be a few!

[Matthew H]

Leon, if you're not going to count dealer/collectors then the number may be less then ten.

[BleedinBlue]

This thread from late 2009 estimated the number of "complete" T206 sets at around 1k.

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...ight=t206+sets

I doubt that 1 in every 3 pre-war collector has a complete T206 set. I think the number of collectors is higher and the 20k number wouldn't surprise me a bit. I also think the number of "complete" T206 sets is lower but that's for another thread.

[e107collector]

I would say around 10-12k. REA usually sends out around 10K catalogs each year. I would have to say a high % of those bidders are vintage card collectors.

Just my guess.

Tony

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Depends on what you call a vintage collector, if you're counting card collectors who also enjoy the occasional T206 or 1933 Goudey amongst his or her 50's 60's shiny stuff I would agree on the 20k number.

If you are talking folks who really on have his or her wheel house in pre-war I would tend to agree with Leon you're talking way less than 20k...

John

+1

[joeadcock]

I think I'm alone out here. Cant find a one.

Asked at Flea Markets about Prewar cards and the usual answer is "NO" or "wish I did".

One guy who works in my field, I asked him and he said "you gotta have money for those", says he collects only mantle era cards.

[tbob]

What's always been amazing to me is not that there aren't more prewar card collectors in my home state of Arkansas- (3 to my knowledge in the whole state, Mike in Hot Springs, Jerry in Van Buren and myself in Fort Smith) but that there is such a scarcity of prewar collectors in neighboring states, like Oklahoma with cities like Tulsa and Oklahoma City. I know of Kenny Cole and I apologize if I am missing someone else, but you would think there would be some card shops with prewar and a lot more collectors in the area.
(I know there are a couple of ebay sellers who sell prewar cards but are not prewar collectors per se).

[triwak]

Bob, I live in Springfield, MO, and there are ZERO vintage card shops up here. Once, a postwar shop tried to start dabbling in prewar, but it didn't work out. He is now closed. Perhaps, because he was asking ~ $700 for T206 commons???

[Kenny Cole]

There are still a few shops in the OKC and Norman area that claim to have pre-war. It's pretty sparse though. I haven't talked to him in a while, but as far as I know, Roger Neufeldt is still in Norman, although he had closed his shop and was mainly doing mail order, eBay and shows. I used to stop by his warehouse every once in a while when he was in town (which wasn't often). He always had some pretty nice pre-war stuff. I imagine he still does. That's about it around here though.

Kenny Cole

[deadballera]

no pre-war shops in Sacramento.

I know of a few collectors in the area...and some just Sacramento PCL items only.

[alanu]

If you include "vintage" to include pre-war, which would include the goudey's, I think the number is on the higher end.

Another way to look at it would be to look at all the mutually exclusive sets on the registries.... 300 total t206 between SGC and PSA... I suppose most collectors don't have sets on the registry so then come up with a mutliplier, maybe 10, 20, 100, who knows.. just another way to look at it.