Is it just me...or are pretty much all card sales falling off?

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Posted By: Dave F

I'm not sure if its just the stuff I'm looking at...or maybe it has to do with Christmas coming up...but seems there are quite a bit of fall off in auction prices of late. Even with the E cards that were up before....

I watched a E94 Cobb PSA 1 go for $880 or something last night....even though PSA screwed up and had labeled it a E98...I would have thought the card would have went for $1200-1300. Kicking myself for forgetting to set a snipe.

And I know it was a board member's here as well..but I do see more and more going for under what they have been..

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Posted By: Jason L

the downturn and upcoming recession is taking a toll on general spending.

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Posted By: Brian E.

I won the E94 Cobb and was happily surprised by the price. I was far from confident in my snipe and only had another $30 more of cushion.

I do agree the economy in general is keeping prices from continuing to skyrocket.

Brian E.

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Posted By: barrysloate

No question there are soft spots in the market, but overall my ebay sales are very strong. However, the economy is likely to get worse in 2008 and it will certainly take a toll.

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Posted By: Mark L

Prices have gone down every November and December. What was notable was the softness in September and October. It is hard to say how the overall macroeconomic situation affects current prices. I would be surprised if card prices moved along with the GDP or interest rates or the employment rate.

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Posted By: leon

I said it before and a few disagreed. It's certainly everyone's prerogative to disagree with me. It's a fact though that card prices, on medium to low scarcity stuff, are down. E-cards as well as T-cards are off about 25%-30%, from my gut feel (more on some T issues). Now, if you have something that is not seen everyday then the price could still be up, up, and away. The holidays and economy definitely account for some of it but I do think there is a general softness. I am glad I am a collector 98% and a flipper 2%.....I haven't really worried about anything going down in value in my collection though some of my for sale stuff isn't worth what I paid for it ......such is life...best regards

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Posted By: JimCrandell

The few cards I am buying these days I am buying at lower than expected prices. I don't think its the economy--consumer confidence up sharply last month and the Holiday season is off with a bang. I think the concern over graded cards and alterations is having an effect. There has been a buzz recently on private e-mails on who is altering cards or what auction houses may or may not be selling them.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- while I agree that there is more awareness about altered cards today than ever before, there are collectors who will be hurt in the pocketbook if we head in some kind of recession (perhaps too strong a word). I think it's a combination of factors. When the economy weakens there are always a group of buyers who decide to take things a little slower.

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Posted By: steve

In the past week I sold 12 cards for total $3,700.
A few were grade 8 Aaron's from the 1960's.
A few were grade 9 Walter Payton's.
A 1933 Sport Kings grade 7.
A 1948 Leaf grade 7.
Happy with the strong sales price results overall.

I also had for sale BIN a very desireable and reasonably priced high grade 1939 PB $5,000.ish card with no bites. Thought it would sell.

And I picked up a 1941 PB Foxx grade 8 and a 1969 Ryan grade 9 - paid lower than expected.

You gotta cherry pick the market, Steve.

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Posted By: Bob Pomilla

Just heard a report that Thanksgiving holiday spending was down this year and it was attributed to people's fears regarding the strength of the economy. So, in general it would seem, people are being more cautious in their spending habits.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Funny Bob--I heard exactly the opposite.

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Posted By: T206Collector

If consumer confidence is up -- and not just up, but "sharply" up -- last month, it is only because it had nowhere else to go.

Anybody that is interested in any number of measures can just google "consumer confidence" and see what I did -- i.e., that housing (down) and oil (up) prices have hurt tremendously.

Here's a random article; and the Consumer Confidence Index issues its next report tomorrow.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21707442/

It is one thing to suggest that altered card concerns may impact people's spending habits without any evidence supporting the claim; it is another thing entirely to suggest that the economy is booming in light of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Economy booming? Who said that?

However overall growth continues at an impressive rate, inflation is low and there are personnel shortages in many areas of the country. On the other hand, concern about card alteration is real.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...watching Fox News, and start reading the New York Times.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

This past quarter it was 3.9%--the quarter before it was 3.8%--both are sonsidered strong numbers--read the WSJ and stay away from the Village Voice

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Posted By: robert a

I'm pretty sure no one was concerned about my PSA 1 E94 Cobb being altered.

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Posted By: Bob Pomilla

Jim,
Not that the media hasn't been known to talk out of both sides of their mouths, but apparently, while more customers visited stores this year, individual shoppers spent less per person. So, I guess, results are mixed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab.HYma7x48w&refer=home

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Posted By: scgaynor

Do people still read the New York Times? Talk about declining sales!

Scott

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Posted By: Jay

Jim--I'll take the under in 3% growth for the 4th Qtr. Do you want the other side of the bet?

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Posted By: Dave F

Well with that Ty Cobb E94 going for so low...and then a E93 Wagner I was watching the other day going for $400 and something...its just crazy. Maybe this is the time to just be buying and hope things come back in the spring.

Jim, I hardly think the "altered card" debate has much to do with the prices...I haven't even looked at high grade cards....I have no idea where they are at...the ones I'm looking at a low grade.

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Posted By: Dave F

Robert,

I wasnt concerned about the Cobb being altered...lol, with Jim...who knows.

I do think it was a really presentable 1 though to go for that price...

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Dave,,

You're right --I forgot to take into account when I said that you were a lower grade buyer. I was thinking of all the e-mails I get every day expressing concerns or citing evidence that xyz dealer or auction house is selling altered cards.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- there are certainly negative factors affecting the economy today. Try selling a home in an area where there aren't too many jobs available. You might have to pay someone to take it off your hands.

And the NY Times is hurting for sure. It's starting to look like SCD. It's getting smaller.

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Posted By: David Goff

I am sure this is a problem that several collectors face, and that's a roller coaster affect. It not only happens in card market, but just about any collector's area. Prices peak and fall, but I am positive the price will go up 2Q '08.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

There are always weak sectors--even in a strong economy--look at the oil business--it suffered for 20 years but finally it has improved over the last 5 years. No doubt though housing is weak--except in Sag Harbor

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Posted By: barrysloate

Sag Harbor is not as strong as you might think. Houses in the 750K- $1 million range have fallen. The $3-5 million and above still are strong. Unfortunately, we're in the first group.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

Same with Westhampton Beach--and I'm with you on values.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Do you have a place in Westhampton?

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Posted By: JK

Fascinating topic - can we all discuss where our houses are located

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Posted By: barrysloate

I know Josh- it's an out and out hijack job. I will cease and desist.

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

I think the economy is soft and it doesn't surprise me to hear reports of soft card prices. The very highest end, though, I suspect will escape (mostly) unscathed.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

Yes--I own a house in Westhampton that I am thinking either of selling or upgrading with a nicer place.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- by using the term "upgrading" you've managed to get us back on topic.

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Posted By: Matt

Jim - you may want to have Kevin come over and check out your new place in case they painted over any cracks in the ceilings or rebuilt any walls that are not structurally sound. Although, since you haven't asked Kevin to look over the house you're currently in, some might say you're not really interested in cleaning up the cheap housing repairs market.

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Posted By: nbrazil

there are a couple of big online auctions ending this week and next week (goodwin, mastro, leland, memory lane). I did notice a decline in ebay prices for a few items in the past several weeks. I just attributed that to people saving for both these larger auctions and for the holidays in general.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

For whatever the reason, prices are down. Period.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

I remember our last thread on this. And the one before that.

I don't know from macro-economic issues but here's what I see on the ground, so to speak:

People are tight right now. They are always tight when the gifting season is upon us and what the kids want this year costs more than it did last year. I may not be able to get the G.I. Joe with the kung fu grip and my wife may not want to...wait, that was Trading Places...But among my clients and colleagues, receivables are way up. I am filing more collections cases than earlier this year. I ams also being stretched on my receivables and clients are opting not to file smaller cases that would be filed without hesitation a year ago. People are definitely feeling house-poor here in LA, even if they haven't purchased or refinanced and aren't affected except on paper. The real estate crash was front and center in conversations over the weekend at various get-togethers. I also heard a lot of pissing and moaning over the stock market. The local high-end mall near my house was busy but nowhere near as jammed as it was over the last few years--I was able to turn right onto my street without hitting overflow traffic. All that tells me it will be a disappointing season and a slow new year, at least around here.

Looks like a good time to buy quality cards...

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Posted By: paulstratton

I guess the stuff I'm bidding on must be recession proof. T207's seem strong to me, especially anything that is at least semi-tough. Red Cycle's are on fire!

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Posted By: Joe D.

the stuff I bid on seems to be strong as ever.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Prices are very high on all the stuff I'm buying.

I have noticed pricing is very low on the items I'm selling, however.

I attribute this to economics.

-Al

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Posted By: JK

Al,

What you are describing is not economics. Its the effect of being routinely shilled when you buy and being ethical when you sell.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

What Josh said.

Al, perhaps I can sell my stuff to you and you to me. We'd make out like bandits!

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Posted By: Jim VB

Al, Paul, Joe D., et al,

I have studied this economic phenomena for years. It is a condition that occurs in the stock market, housing, major electronic purchases, and sports cards.

The term I use to describe it is "The Jerk Factor". Anytime I make a major purchase, the market starts down (In Electronics, a new model comes out with better features and a lower price.) Within six months, if not sooner, I feel like a "jerk".

Causation is still in question, but I suspect it's tied to my checking account.

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Posted By: Jason

Al,
I suffer from the same affliction that you are battling. It took me selling a few more cards than I expected to be able to fund a recent purchase

Josh,
Getting back to the previous hijack: for the record, my house is located in the US. On the mainland, to be more specific.

Edited to add:
JimVB, I do believe that several of those spending phenomena that you list are actually attributable to the same group of small elven creatures that turn off your fridge light when you close the door.

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Posted By: peter chao

Adam,

You are pretty accurate on the economy. I've noticed it too, people are filing lawsuits instead of trying to resolve real estate partnership disputes.

Peter C.

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Posted By: JK

Jason,

Small world - my house is located on the US mainland as well - imagine that.

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Posted By: Jason

That's why I just can't see why we just can't all learn to get along?!


Howdy neighbor!

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Posted By: barrysloate

If global warming continues, in about ten years my house will no longer be on the US mainland.

It will be in Peconic Bay.

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Posted By: DJ

..and not to mention paying $3.40 a gallon for Gas. I'm paying an extra $150 a month for Gas.

I as well see lowering prices in Cards (watching carefully a sector or two)and have talked to retailers who expect lower earnings from the years before.

My friend, Comic book guy, says it's the same on his end for the Golden and Silver age comics in high grade. You also have to look at horror in real estate. When there is questioning in the economy, the hoi polloi prefers the essentials over collectibles.

We'll see next week when five giant catalogs end at roughly the same time.

It's not just the NY Times, look at every periodical at your Borders or super market. My local newspaper is combining sections now and dedicate about six pages to Sports and Business, half of what it was a few years ago.

DJ

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

Global warming will be fixed by end of week since Al Gore met with George Bush today.........and..........GDP will come in below 2.0 for 4Q07.........