How many T206 sets?

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Posted By: JimB

Just curious what people think is a rough # of T206 sets or near sets (500+ different) out there in the hobby. Ted or Barry might have good educated guesses. I would guess over 100. What do others think?
JimB

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Posted By: brian

100 near sets sounds feasible and I know of one collector in the midwest who has at least one dozen near sets all graded with the focus on different conditions and different backs.

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Posted By: cmoking

I'd guess the number is closer to 300. There seems to be a 500+ T206 lot or near-complete sets in every major auction. If those big lots are getting sold 5 to 10 times a year, there should be many more not being sold. Just a guess though. Looking forward to what others think.

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Posted By: Richard Masson

even at 300, I would take the over.

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Posted By: barry arnold

I love this question. It reminds me of when you and I indicated here that we're members of the 500 plus club. King does some great statistical work and has a decent handle on the numbers methinks.
I think this board has fewer than 25 folks in the 500 plus club but know full well that there are many more, thanks to Bill Brown's Super Set work.
Prof. Ted will know.

best,
barry

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Posted By: T206Collector

I can't give you round figures, but I got to 520 in about 8 years on a relatively limited budget.

The cards are all available on ebay, if condition isn't an issue for you. It's just a matter of cash flow.

One of the reasons T206 is so attractive is because it is so attainable (or at least, the perception is that it is attainable).

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Posted By: Matt

Interesting question. I guess that would also infer that a huge chunk of T206 cards are still not graded then.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

To start with, the last time I looked at the PSA and SGC registries there were about 50 sets
with 250-524 cards.
By extrapolating that number of sets by a factor of 10 x....I would say there are at least 500
sets (Worldwide).

A better gauge of measuring this, is how many Demmitt's and O'Hara's (St Louis vars.) exist.
As, I think any really serious T206 collector would have these two in his (or her's) set. After
collecting T206's for 26 years, I have concluded there are about 500 (each) of these two
Subjects out there. And, 75 to 90% of them are in near complete sets.

But, I'm no expert at this game....just giving you my educated (or experienced) guess. I know
long time collectors, who have fully completed T206 sets that have been working on them as
far back as 1970. A significant number of those sets are in high quality mylar plastic sheets.
Some, of these collectors have had their "Big 4, 5, or 6" T206's graded; but, their remaining
cards are ungraded.

Anyhow, that's my opinion, for whatever it is worth.....my guess is 500+

TED Z

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Posted By: T206Collector

...using Demmitt and O'Hara populations as a benchmark is a very good idea.

But, I think that much more than 10% of all Demmitt and/or O'Hara owners do not have 500+. My guess is there are a lot of folks that recognize the relative scarcity of Demmitt and O'Hara, knocked those ones off early, and now are climbing up the Monster Mountain.

I only have 35 unsigned (and 26 signed) T206 cards left from my halcyon days in the top 4 of the SGC set registry, but I am holding tight to my Plank, Magie, Demmitt and O'Hara for when I exhaust my autographed T206 avenues and begin the long slow trudge up the Monster Mountain again.

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Posted By: JimB

I just checked on the PSA and SGC registries. My gauge for 500+ card sets or partial sets was if they were 95% complete or better. The PSA registry lists 16 current sets of 500+ and SGC lists 4 for a total of 19 registered sets of 500+. Like others here, I would guess these account for a small percentage of the actual T206 sets out there. In my set, I have about 60 HOFs and rarities graded, but most of my set is raw and not on either registry. But 500 sets sound a bit high to me. I would guess 300, give or take a few, is in the ballbark. Ted makes a good point about the numbers of the tougher cards like O'Hara and Demmit, but of course, one does not need those to climb over the 500 mountain. If we were to take the number of sets at 520+, it would obviously be a lot fewer.
JimB

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Posted By: leon

If we always say "the big 4" don't you think there would be a precipitous drop going from 520 to 521? I don't know a lot about t206 but this would seem to make sense? best regards

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Posted By: peter chao

This is getting interesting. In a way we had a similiar discussion not too far back about the no. of high grade T-206s that have been graded to date. Some people thought there were approximately 75% of the cards in PSA 8 and up have been graded.

If that figure is accurate, then people that have ungraded T-206 near sets have very few T-206s in near mint condition.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Fascinating, guys.

Can someone post how many Demmit and O'Hara cards of the St. Louis teams are graded by GAI, PSA, SGC, and Beckett ( and other graders ) ???

Thanks.

Frank.

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Posted By: JimB

Leon,
Yes, I think if the "big four" or any one of them were required, the numbers would definately drop quite a bit. But sets with all but the big four are not that tough.

Frank,
The PSA pop report lists 62 Demmitt/St. Louis and 55 O'Hara/St. Louis. I could not figure out how to negotiate the SGC pop report. Maybe someone else could report those numbers.
JimB

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Scot Reader did a tremendous analysis on the T206 set; so, let us take his figures for the "Big Six" and
extrapolate from there.

Scot notes a dozen Joe Doyle error cards, others say less. In any event, we can discard it for this study.

Demmitt.....200-300
O'Hara.......200-300
Magie........100-200
Plank..........75-100
Wagner.......60 - 80

Now, while I think that there are more Demmitt and O'Hara cards than 300, it's a conservative estimate.
A good starting point to project from; therefore, I'd say that 75% of these two St Louis variations are in
collectors sets. And, I base this on my experience selling T206's all these years.
When I have sold these two Subjects to collectors, they invariably have been to set collectors, who need
them to "complete" their 520-card set.

So, let's assume this is valid, then we have just accounted for 225 sets consisting of 520 cards (or more).
Now, how many 518-card sets are out there ? What's your guess ? My conservative estimate at least 100
to 200 such sets.
Finally, how many sets are range from 500-517 cards ? Perhaps, another 100 to 200 such sets. Do you think
these estimates are too far off ? If not, then my original estimate of approx. 500 sets may be actually valid.

But, if you don't agree....then, I would be interested in hearing details of some other estimates ?

TED Z


Edited to correct number of Joe Doyle error cards.

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Posted By: T206Collector

....these estimates are well reasoned.

I happen to think there are a TON of partial sets of 500-518. There are just too many cards for sale -- and too many partial sets routinely auctioned -- to be only a few hundred partials out there. I think the partials is closer to 500-1,000.

T206 cards just aren't scarce.

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Posted By: JimB

Ted,
The only issue I would question is that 75% of the O'Haras and Demmitts are in sets of 520+. I agree that it is set collectors who are primarily interested in these cards, but if others are like me, they had these cards long before they hit 520. I think I got my O'Hara when I had about 100 T206s and picked up the Demmitt when I was about halfway there (approx. 250). My point is that I think many O'Haras and Demmitts are in collections of far less than 520. And if I am correct in this presumption, then the other numbers do not necessariy follow. Of course we are all speculating. I appreciate your analysis and attempt at extrapolating the number of sets in somewhat systematic manner. I don't think our guesses are too far apart. Maybe somewhere in between - say, approximately 400 - is closer to the real #.
JimB

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Posted By: peter chao

JimB,

I agree with you. In addition to individuals like yourself, there are also people that collect the key cards in the T206 set alone. A wealthy collector may not be interested in collecting the entire T206 set, but they will recognize the uniqueness of the Demmitt or a Plank...and just buy the key cards alone.

Peter C.

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Posted By: barry arnold

Fascinating,T206 scholars!
400 plus makes good sense to me utilizing the data of Ted/Reader with
JimB's qualifiers.
Although individual 206s(save the Big 6) are usually not very scarce,collections of 500 plus,particularly 518-524, are scarce.
As i indicated earlier, I've been amazed that there are relatively few
represented on this board. Admittedly, I'm talking about those who have them
in hand now. I guess a key factor is the singlemindedness(among a plethora of other factors) that is necessary in completing the monstrous MONSTER.
It is an amazingly shrewd adversary,yet a most intriguing friend.
Forgive my anthropomorphism.

all the best,
barry

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

PAUL

I'm fully in agreement with your "tons" statement. I think I've underestimated the number of sets
out there in the 500-518 card category. And, especially nowadays....since, Demmitt and O'Hara
have become really "big ticket" items.

JIM B

Taking off from my response to Paul's comments, you and I and others (back in the good ole days)
picked up Demmitt and O'Hara, and even Magie, prior to reaching 500+ T206's simply because these
"biggies" were affordable. In the 1980's I acquired a decent Demmitt for only $200. Same goes for
my 1st O'Hara. And, my Magie (Vg) was only $600. I was about half the way thru my 1st set when
I acquired these cards.
This is not the case nowadays.

Now, I am not a big time dealer; but, the past several years I have sold 2-Demmitt's and 2-O'Hara's
at the Philly Show. And, in all 4 instances the buyers (four different) needed them to complete their
520 or 521 card sets. Actually, the last one had a Plank so it was a 522 card set.

I know you (or someone else) will say this is just anecdotal; but, I have compared notes with other
dealers and they said that 9 out of 10 times this is true. And, usually what reinforces this, is that
the buyer doesn't even haggle on the price. People are willing to pay whatever it takes to get that
last card for their T206 set that they have been searching for.

Therefore Jim, my 75% figure on these two "St Louis toughies" might actually be on the low side. I
leave you to consider this....at the current prices for Ex (or better) examples of these two Subjects,
are they a good investment ?
I don't think so, there are not too many Demmitt and O'Hara's that are "standing alone" in investor's
portfolios.

TED Z

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Posted By: T206Collector

"It is an amazingly shrewd adversary, yet a most intriguing friend.
Forgive my anthropomorphism."

I am just happy you come up with something other than: the Monster wants you to quit, don't listen.

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Posted By: barry arnold

The Monster wants you to quit!
Don't listen to it.

Please place this at the end of my last post!

best,

barry

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Posted By: peter chao

See, you guys do miss Joe P.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Bob

My own experience was that I had almost the complete big 4-less set before I got the O'Hara, Demmitt, Cobb green and Cobb bat on shoulder. I don't think everyone gets them early and then builds from there, I think a lot of us got the Monster almost completed and then started picking off the more expensive cards.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Of the 500+ card t206 sets which exist, what percentage is in vg or less average condition?

I miss Joe P., and I miss the rest of 'em.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Guys,
I think 400-500 T206 sets are probably a good guess. I have over 2200 T206's, but I only have one set (minus the big 4) at the moment. I used to have a nice VG/EX Plank and several Magie's, but have never owned the big 2. I actually broke up my original set to spend more time going after the rare backs.

Be well Brian


PS The Monster is always calling..... And Joe P is always reading and listening..

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Thank you, Jim B, for the PSA numbers on the St. Louis Demmits and O'Haras.


62 and 55. That is about 60 of each. If there are that many in all of the other graders combined, that would be about 120 of each graded. So if there are 300 of each, 40% are graded. If there are 500 of each, then 12% are graded.

I'd think that a disproportionate number of the St. Louis Demmits and O'Haras would be graded, I'd think they are slightly more likely to be graded than a common card. If that is true, then maybe our estimates of how many of these guys are out there is a bit high.

My approach is much like T Bob's, I'm at 512, lacking O'Hara, 2 Cobbs, 2 Youngs, 2 Lajoies, and a Mathewson. What Ted says about a guy finally getting to where he is after one of the St. Louis toughies, at that point he'll just buy it, being glad to have found one... not much haggling.

So I think there are about 150 to 200 sets of 520. And then maybe 400 to 500 collections of 500+ different. eBay has certainly made it easier for folks to get to 500. I think a generation ago it was an ordeal. Some of the serious collectors would bog down in the mid to high 400s.

I'd still like to know how many St. Louis toughies have been graded by SGC, GAI, and Beckett... are there other graders out there??

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

When this hobby gets organized this common crap will be available off the shelf in 500 card sets on a : "pick your grade, how many do you want" basis. Options for the more desireable cards.

One man's opinion.



You want a set of Indian Head Pennies, Walking Liberty Halfs, Franklins, Buffalos, etc? What grade, and how many do you want?

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Posted By: peter chao

Gil,

If the hobby part of collecting disappears, what you say may come true. However, there are lots of serious collectors out there like Joe P., that have doubles and triples of certain T-206s and are not letting go.

Peter C.

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Posted By: dan mckee

I know of 15 without blinking that none of you will know of from old time collectors that are not internet savy.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Dan,
Is that just in Baltimore alone...... Be well Brian


PS Nice to see you posting more... especially the UNC cards... Not

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Posted By: DaveW

Interesting set, and I love the collector models.

I must admit that I have a near set, but minus the big 6, Demmitt and O'Hara part of those. Still over 500, but not within the prediciton used here.

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Posted By: peter chao

Let's face it, not everybody can finish their T206 set. What do people do when they realize that they can't finish their set? Do they sell on E-bay? Stop where they are and collect something else?

Peter C.

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Posted By: JimB

They go to grandpa's attic and pray.
JimB

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

There is no such "creature".....once you seriously start assembling together a T206 set (with certain goals in
mind......i.e., a 500, 520 or even a 524 card set) you stick with it. Once "the Monster" has you in its grips, it
will not let go....and you cannot abort the mission.

It's just like the lyrics in that Eagles song, in the mid-70's...."once you check-in, you cannot check-out".

T-Rex TED

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Posted By: CN

Well said Ted. I am just over 400 different and every time I say I will stop I go at tops a month and then I go at it again. My goal is to finish in 2009 as I have most of the key cards.I am looking forward to the challenge as I hit come close to 500. CN

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Posted By: Mike Ernst

Adding a perspective to the most interesting thread---I'm not the norm, but I'm guessing that there are a few like me. I reached 520 in 1974, when I was in my mid-20's. Not a single one of them is slabbed. Turned down a Wagner for $600 because my salary was $550 a month--my wife told me to borrow the money and buy it, and I ignored her. I don't know how many there are like me who fly under the radar, but there is at least one of us!

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Posted By: cmoking

"my wife told me to borrow the money and buy it, and I ignored her"

Wow, that's an interesting twist. How many other guys can say that their wife told them to buy a card with borrowed money? Lucky guy.

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Posted By: Jack Cryder

Mike, you're not the only one flying below radar. It pays to collect in the shadows. I bought my first T206 set in 1966 at the age of 23 when I was a 2nd Lt. in the Air Force. Got it from an old time collector named Jim Holst for $1000, including Wagner, Plank & Doyle.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I'm still hoping someone computer and SGC savvy can tell me how many Demmits and O'Haras there are graded... Same for Beckett and GAI.

If we add that to the PSA totals above, then we have a clue about the quantity of St. Louis toughies out there.

Thanks.

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Posted By: David Smith

Peter, the old time collector, who I call my Mentor, started with the Wagner as one of his first cards.

My Mentor lived in Pennsylvania and started collecting cards in 1948 using his paper route money. He bought the Bowman baseball cards and then went to football and boxing. Same thing in 1949. When Topps came on the scene in 1951, he started collecting those also.

In late 1952, the druggist at the Drug Store where he bought his cards brought out two unopened boxes of Topps High Number baseball cards and offered them to him for what his cost was. This was because the kids were buying the football cards and NOT the baseball cards. My Mentor bought the boxes and went home and opened them. My Mentor says the 1952 Mantle is TRIPLE printed, based on what he found in those boxes.

At the start of the 1953 baseball season, when the new Topps cards came out, my Mentor says the druggist again brought out two (the lsst two) unopened boxes of 1952 High Numbers and offered them to him at cost. My Mentor again bought the two boxes and went home and opened them.

BAD NEWS!!!! Some time between the early 1950's and 1958 or 1959, my Mentor's Father threw out his card collection. Based on the fact that he had at least 15 1952 Topps Mantles, my Mentor KNOWS there were at least $1 million dollars worth of cards that were trashed.

When my Mentor started collecting cards again, his Grand Father heard about it and gave him the cards he had collected as a youth. The cards were mostly T206's and Honus Wagner was one of the cards in the group. My Mentor said his Grand Father told him that he had a second Wagner at one time but gave it away to somebody else who was a Wagner fan. That started my Mentor's love affair with "The Monster".

To this day, my Mentor does NOT have a complete set because he never went after the Plank and decided the Doyle variation was NOT something special. To make things tough, he started going after EVERY Southern League player and EVERY back variation, as far as the differnt companies was concerned. He said he got to within 11 cards and quit because it took him five years to find one card and go from 12 to 11. I do not know what 11 cards he needs or what companies he is missing.

I do know that Bill Mastro is a friend of my Mentor's because he introduced me to Mastro about 1997. I also know that my Mentor is selling off most of his collection. He is piecing it out to different auction houses (the two Caramel felts of Mathewson and Lajoie in the current Lipset auction are his) but he is keeping the T206's so he can give them to his Son.

My one wish (that never came true) was that I could have won the lottery about five years ago so I could have bought EVERYTHING my Mentor owned. Ah well....

David

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Posted By: barry arnold

"Once you check-in, you can't check out"
Well put,TREX.
Very well put!
********
With a supportive wife like that Mike Ernst, I see why you've done so well in the parish!

best,

barry