Just How Tuff T206 Rare Backs Are...

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Posted By: MVSNYC

There have been many questions raised about just how tuff T206 Rare Backs really are...well, i hope Doug & Art don't mind me listing this information...

In a VCBC article from 2001, Doug Allen & Art Martineau had conducted a rare back survey for a book they had written, "T206, The First Century"...

They surveyed many collectors & dealers (45 to be exact) from 1997 thru 1999...

437,553 T206 cards were studied, here were their findings:


Broad Leaf 460...8 cards...1 in every 54,694 cards.
Drum...29 cards...1 in every 15,088 cards.
UZIT...63 cards...1 in every 6,945 cards.
Lenox...112 cards...1 in every 3,907 cards.
Broad Leaf 350...160 cards...1 in every 2,735 cards.
Carolina Brights...368 cards...1 in every 1,189 cards.

This should help answer a lot of questions that many people have been asking...

Doug/Art- i would love to hear more about the survey and if you feel the numbers are still in this ballpark today, or not?

Regards,
Michael Sarno

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Posted By: JimB

Great thread to start Michael. I have always thought that singling out BL 460 and comparing it with other brands as a whole is a bit misleading. For the completist who wants a copy of every possible back including every series and possibly every factory #, it is useful, but comparing it to Drum or Uzit is a bit strange to me. If all other things were equal, I would take a Drum over a BL460 any day. For me it is simple, I have about a half dozen Broadleafs (albeit all 350s), but only one Drum. This is just one person's personal preference. I respect that other people enjoy going further than the brand names.
JimB

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

JIM

It might surprise you; but, I totally agree with you. I have about 8 - Broad Leaf 350 cards....
but only one DRUM. I acquired this DRUM approx. 22 years ago (thanks to Barry Sloate).

I would like to find a Broad Leaf 460 at a reasonable price....as it is the last remaining back I
need for the 40 (or so) different backs for this T206 subset.

If we refer to Bill Brown's current Super Set....DRUM's outnumber BL 460's by a factor of 2 to 1.
And, that stat is consistent with the fact that approx. 200 cards in the 350 Series are possible
with the DRUM back.
While, approx. 60 cards in the 350/460 Series are possible with a BL 460 back. And, if you include
the 48 Subjectss in the 460-only Series....you have a possible total of 108 - BL 460. However,
the 460-only cards are seldom seen with the BL 460 back. I don't know of any.


Anyhow, for my money....I'll buy DRUM's all day long before I buy BL 460's.

TED Z

"What a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away"....Doobie Brothers, 1979

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

The thing about the article that always struck me was that 45 dealer/collectors had a total of 438,000 T206 cards! Maybe that is why I have always stayed away from the set.
-Rhett

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Posted By: JimB

Ted,
I thought we always agreed.
JimB

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Posted By: barry arnold

JimB and TRex,
You've helped me relax my quest for a Drum.
I'm going to be happy with the Broadleafs i have.
By the way, JimB, I was talking about you a wee bit to one of my
academic colleagues as we celebrated the Dalai Lama becoming a Professor
at our alma mater, Emory. I said only good things about your translating
work---didn't get to talk Vintage Cards.

all the best,

Barry

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Posted By: Marc S.

I have two drums, one uzit and two lenox cards. I have less than 150 total T-206 cards. By the odds you stated above, you would essentially need to find something like 45,000 T-206 cards to find the five I mentioned above.

Although I find that pretty darn cool and compelling in some ways, the logical part of me suggests that it seems equally unlikely that you could find one hundred sets of T-206 cards and not come up with more drums, uzits and lenoxes...

m

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Posted By: Dylan

Obviously almost any t206 set sold as a whole will not have any of the toughest backs included as they are worth too much as a single. Ans like you pointed out you only own a couple hundred T206's but several of the rarest backs. What would be interesting to know is if anyone tracked the T206's on ebay what the different percentages of backs would be? Overtime that could cover hundreds of thousands of T206's. Even if some cards would be counted multiple times it would be interesting to know! Actually it would be even more interesting to know how many cards out of each prewar set are sold on ebay every year.

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Posted By: Hec

Has anyone ever done an actual count on how many BL460 cards collectors here have? I know there was one on BL350's but I didn't see any for the BL460's. Also, why would anyone say they would rather have a Drum back instead of a BL460 when Drum's are more common? Just asking, thanks.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

Rhett- i think i remember (but i could be wrong), that the people surveyed were able to count cards that they owned, as well as used to own, as part of their number...IF that is actually how it was done, then the real numbers might be actually LOWER, because there could have been the same card counted a few times?

Calling out to Doug Allen? can you clarify, please?


Hec- i'm with you bud, i'll take a BL 460 anyday over a Drum...simply much scarcer.

for the record, i do have a BL 460...so that's one.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Many back collectors are satisfied with a Broadleaf 350, which is only a modest challenge; therefore, to them a Drum would be much more desirable.

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Posted By: JK

I think the reason some would prefer a Drum over a BL460 is that the BL460 is essentially the same as a 350, just a different factory. If the two BL backs are counted together, they are not as rare as a drum. In some ways, its like a piedmont w/ a factory 42 back. Some want them b/c they are rare and some collectors simply look at them as a piedmont b/c they dont care about which factory produced the card.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

guys- i'm sorry, i just don't agree with this thinking...obviously, yes the BL 350 & 460 LOOK almost the same, BUT it is 2 different series, the latter being way tuffer to find (a legitimate variation)...the die-hard back collectors will (or should) agree with me, as they chase the brown Lenox, brown Old Mill, red hindu (they look the same, exept for color), double print Old Mill, etc, etc...

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Posted By: JimB

Barry,
Not to get off topic, but that was a nice honor by your alma mater. They are developing a great doctoral program in Buddhist Studies and run a semester abroad program in Dharamsala, the seat of the Tibetan Govt.-In-Exile. I believe HHDL has agreed to give an annual talk at Emory.
JimB

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Posted By: Dave F

I would love to have a Drum someday. Of course it would have to be so beat up it would be harly recognizable.

***And as far as Emory...great school, I live down the road from it. Although ahem....there is that "other school" in Atlanta that I hope my kids go to...Georgia Tech

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Posted By: barrysloate

Since both Barrys responded to this thread, I assume Jim is referring to Barry Arnold. I did my graduate work at NYU- do they have a department of Buddhist studies there?

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Posted By: Jim Dale

I love the discussion on the back debate; I have to fall on the side of preferring the BL460 to the drum but understand why those who like the drum better do so. Since even an "ugly" BL460 seems to fetch 2k these days or there abouts I would prefer a nicer grade BL350 myself some times for much less.

I've only been reading here for about a year and try not to post much because I don't know much....but what about the "other 4" backs that are considered rarer then the BL460? I never see them mentioned much? One old thread had a brief comment on them in that some collectors view them as error cards and not part of the set - or is that simply because they are that rare?

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Posted By: JimB

Barry,
NYU does not, but Columbia has a very good program. Among others, Robert Thurman (Uma's dad) holds and endowed chair. I was referring to the other Barry and Emory in my previous post.
JimB

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Posted By: Dave F

I also had a lenox back that I ended up selling to a fellow board member (through ebay) a couple months ago. I did that to fund the purchase of a Matty portrait PSA 2....I love the Matty, but still find myself regretting letting go of the Lenox back. Even though I must say..the Lenox back by far IMO is the plainest, most dull back of all the T206's.

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Posted By: barrysloate

The Lenox back is lacking a decorative border, but it still looks so much different than a common Piedmont or Sweet Cap. I don't know if backs are collected for their beauty; I think it is more for their rarity!

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Posted By: JimB

Dave,
How about Uzit for a dull, plain back?
JimB

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Posted By: barrysloate

It's a pretty shade of blue!

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Posted By: Marc S.

<<but what about the "other 4" backs that are considered rarer then the BL460? I never see them mentioned much? One old thread had a brief comment on them in that some collectors view them as error cards and not part of the set - or is that simply because they are that rare? >>

I think most of us consider the Ty Cobb back to be a seperate set rather than a distinct back of T-206. I think many consider the Old Mill Souther League Overprint(s) to be error cards rather than distinct, widely-distributed backs.

And I think many do not often regard the Brown backs (whether Old Mill or Lenox) as truly distinct. Even though many here will attest that they are truly different, I think the relatively closeness between black and brown in the grand scheme of things probably deters many from placing a significant premium on the brown backs, despite the scarcity. Brown vs. black is fairly uninteresting, unlike the color differential you see on the Hindus.

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Posted By: JimB

I have been looking for a Brown Old Mill and brown Lenox for a long time (Hint, Hint anybody ). I am more interested in color differences than factory numbers personally. Some board members have shared scans of theirs and they are not just faded blacks in my opinion.
JimB

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Posted By: MVSNYC

great question Jim, and glad to see you post...

my guess is that the few that own, let's say an old mill double overprint, brown old mill, brown lenox, etc...will of course fully endorse and defend their prized rarity (i probbably would to, if i owned them)...and the majority of us who do not own these super rare/almost freak variations, are more likely to dismiss and not accept these cards as true variations. just simple human nature.

with all that said...i originally thought that the brown Lenox/Old Mill backs were just faded black, but after seeing one in person and comparing scans side-by-side, i am starting to believe (not 100% yet) that it is legit.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

MIKE S

In the bigger picture of T206 collecting....the DRUM wins out....it basically boils down to the law of....
"supply vs demand".
There are many more T206 collectors who are content to collect a "sub-set" of just the 15 basic T-brands.
And, whether they acquire a Broad Leaf 350 (or if lucky, a 460) is immaterial to them. The DRUM is, invariably,
at the top of their wantlist.

This has been my experience for over 26 years at Shows, I get 10 times more of the 15 basic T-brand col-
lectors than the advanced ones, who are looking for all the 40 (or so) permutations of the 15 basic backs.

TED Z

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Posted By: JimB

I wonder if there are others besides me who are collecting the 16 basic brands PLUS the color variations (like red Hindu), but are not worried about series and factory numbers.
JimB

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

For many years, I was happy to have the 15 basic T-brands and the Red HINDU, Piedmont 460/42,
Cycle 460, and American Beauty's (Frame & 460).

Then, about a 1 1/2 years ago I acquired a large collection of T206's which included 35 of all the
possibe back variations. So, now I only need a Brown Old Mill and a Broad Leaf 460.

TED Z

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Posted By: Jim Rivera

mvsnyc email me

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Does anyone know if SGC will slab a card "backwards" so the rare back will show with the label? Has anyone tried?

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Posted By: Mike

SGC will encase them backward for you... at least they did for these:

http://www.cardtarget.com/cgi-bin/t206.cgi

They were in a Huggins and Scott auction last year as a set of 36 backs (missing the "big 4"... Cobb/Cobb and the three Old Mill overprints). I've scanned them to our website... and for those doubters the Lenox brown is clearly brown. =)

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Posted By: MVSNYC

Jim R- email sent.

Jim B- i "kinda" collect the T206 backs the same as you...

the 15 different backs, PLUS Red Hindu, Piedmont 42, Blank Back and Broad Leaf 460...

years back i had about 36 out of the 40 possible backs...i have since sold a lot of them, and just focus on the above mentioned backs in the best grades i can find, all PSA graded.

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Posted By: JimB

I should ammend that I also have a blank back and frame and no frame AB. I am sure I have all the series for Piedmont, SC, and others, but that has not been a focus. The 16 brands are most important to me.
JimB

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Posted By: MVSNYC

just thought i would share this...i recently held a Cobb/Cobb PSA 2 in my hands...i will respect the owner's privacy and not mention his name, as he posts here...i think he prefers to remain under the radar...

it definitely has some sort of gloss on it...it is pretty cool to see one up close.

Best-
MS

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Posted By: Cat

I really have very litle appreciation for T206s. I know it's not a very good board to make that statement, but I do have 14 backs with HOFer fronts. I just sold my Speaker Cycle back because I acquired a Speaker Drum and didn't want the duplicate front. I'll get a Cycle soon.

I do not consider a blank back a "back" so I have never attempted to acquire one. I would love to have a Cobb/Cobb but wouldn't everyone?

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Posted By: Cat

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Posted By: Cat

In the end, the backs make T206 collecting far more interesting.

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Posted By: Dylan

Ive been putting together the t206 back set as a part of my type set endeavor and only need the most expensive ones now (broadleaf,drum,uzit. Now odds are that I will only be able to afford a BL350 and will have to forget about the 460 series, but only due to cost. I do think the series designation is a lot more important then the factory designation, and obviously most agree as many people dont pay much attention to facotory #. But for 2 grand theres so many other type cards i need, and having a BL350 is, in one viewpoint, enough. Plus I dont really need 3 different sovereign backs to be happy either

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Posted By: Dave F

To answer Jim B's earlier question (sorry was out driving all day)...I'd be just fine with the "plainess" Uzit back. After all, blue is my favorite color.

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Posted By: Scott B.

What happened to those Uzit back lot that sold at REA last yr? There were like 30+ of them. I was hoping the buyer would break them up and sell them on eBay then I can get one or two.

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Posted By: Dave F

Scott-
He must be holding unto them for the next 10 years...per Peter's advice...ha ha

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Posted By: mr. moses

that as a result of reading threads on this forum that I am going to have to chase a "back" type set (excluding blank back-no interest) from the T206 series. I will have to have a plan obviously to maneuver my way around the rarity and expense issues. So far I have decided that I will be looking for low grades. Since I anticipate that the brand is now and would continue to be most important to me - I suppose that the visual presentation of the back is primary although I don't think I could deal with a heavy crease thru the players face. I need to figure out if I want graded cards only but I think I will opt for whatever comes along in that regard. Color variations are less important to me and could still be the proverbial dangling carrot for future collecting as would factory and other anomalies. I have no real resale considerations (certainly not in the foreseeable future) but unsure still about whether to focus on things like rare combinations of fronts and backs - Hall of Fame players - things like that. 17 backs of which I imagine 16 I will eventually get. Seems like a good beginning and only 16 cards to think about and ferret out. I thought I might try and make rare combinations and the like for the more common backs, and be more satisfied to make the more difficult backs with a more common player - but with such a small set I think I want to make it an exotic undertaking. I am no threat to any collector here - what with my desire to get 16 cards from a possible population of 1,500,000(?) Does anyone have any thoughts about my undertaking and direction? I am patient and comfortable. Assuming I was looking for examples in the good to very good range, semi-stars/HOF/tough combination cards - what would be a casually rendered guesstimation of the cost of such an undertaking? Some of you might have started this way and some may have taken the other route - down sizing to types - as the prices escalated. Any help greatly appreciated....

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Posted By: JimB

I would guess you could do it for 4-7k depending on the level of HOF and the grade. A vg Drum Speaker is going to cost you, but gd Drum Willis would probably be a third of that price. There are really only 5-8 backs that demand a premium and of those only 2-5 (Drum, Uzit, Lenox, Carolina Brights, and Broadleaf) demand a significant premium. A few of the others get a minor premium. EPDG may be closer to the previously mentioned category. But Drum and Uzit are in a class by themselves. And of course the Ty Cobb brand is really in a class by itself, but it sounds like you are going to skip that one. I may be a little low on the overall price here. I'm sure others will chime in.
JimB

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Posted By: Dave F

Henry...
Considering you said lower grade...lets take PSA 1's for example...here is a really rough price estimate for each...per common

Piedmont $25
Sweet Caporal $25
Soveriegn $25
Polar Bear $25
Old Mill $25-30
Tolstoi $30-35
EPDG $30-35
Cycle $35
American Beauty $35
Hindu $80
Carolina Bright $100-125
Lenox $200-250
Broadleaf $200-250
Uzit $500-700
Drum $1000+
Ty Cobb Forget about it.

Again...this is only my thoughts on PSA 1's...could greatly vary...and the prices are for the basics, such as brown hindu, broadleaf 350 and such.

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Posted By: Dave F

Also...this was based on commons only...not HoF'ers

Maybe for lower tier Hof'ers....double each number or close to it?

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Posted By: Jimmy

there just seems to be so many Sweet Caporal and Piedmont backs that all others seem to be less available than in the past - I had a lot of rare backs in the past and now it is hard to buy them - maybe a good sign for investing in T206 rare T206 backs

Take Care

Jimmy

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Posted By: Dave F

Like I said..the only one I've aquired in the year I've been after T206's has been one Lenox...and after getting rid of it I've decided that any of the big ones I come across in the future...Lenox, Broadleaf, Red Hindu, Uzit..or hell...a Drum..I won't be selling again (at least not for a while or for something spectacular).

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Guys,
Just worry about the fronts and leave the backs to me.... Please..

Be well Brian

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Posted By: Dave F

Ha ha Brian. Isn't there more joy in sharing?

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Posted By: Trae R.

You too can have all 16 T206 backs for the low-low price of $18!
<shameless plug> http://www.t206.org/products.php </shameless plug>