Is there a pre-war set likely to decrease in value?

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Posted By: Dave F

While sitting here in the office and thinking about the present (Cobb Red?) that my wife will be handing over tonight for my birthday....I thought about a question.

Is there any pre-war set that is likely to DECREASE in value over the next five or ten years? Will T206's drop back down some? T205's? E90-1s? Maybe the N172's will drop in value and become a little more affordable?

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Posted By: Jason L

and kinda got shot down, with most people responding that cards don't go down in value, they just plateau (or take a breather) for a while until they are back in fashion...

I have seen and heard to the contrary however, so I think the most reasonable way to approach it is to assume that cards can behave much like any other collectable for which there is a market...they will rise and fall...and it may be reasonable to assume that those which have climbed the highest the fastest, would be most vulnerable to a stock market-like correction (e.g. T206s over the past 24 months)

However, to this, I will add one caveat that may limit the downside: Baseball card collectors are much like buy-and-hold stock investors...folks who don't have any inclination to return their collection to market...I am one of them (for the most part), and there is probably some value in the thinking that we may be seeing a buying binge that will fill the closets for the next 50 years...

great topic...no real answer, other than I think it wise to think of the cards with a view towards cyclicality.

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

In what I see the only cards that decrease in value are the high grade low pops that first hit the market and the registry guys fight for it. Then a second and third come up and sell for a fraction of the price.

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Posted By: Jimmy

there was a decrease in T201s for a few years, but now they are starting to gain better prices, I would not be surprised if it happens again in the future

Jimmy

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Posted By: Dave F

Well....I have seen other issues besides pre-war cards go down in value...I'm not quite sure I could be certain the same won't happen with one or two pre-war sets.

For all the people that are "certain" that the issues will rise in value....why aren't you plucking $10,000 down on a pre-war card and holding it for 10-20 years like you would any other investment you put thousands of dollars in? If things are so certain to rise....would only make sense that cards would be much safer than a "stock market"?

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Posted By: Dave F

As far as my own concerns, I only collect T206's..obviously I would hate to see them go down in value over the next ten years. I also only collect low grade...so a common PSA 3 right now that I'm paying $35 for wouldn't be that far reaching to see it hit $25 again would it?

For all I know a T206 Cy Young portrait in a PSA 1 that I pay $350 for may go for $100 ten years for now?

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Posted By: Brian

In the short term, I would be concerned with issues that are thinly traded.

In the long term, I would be concerned with the rate of new collectors joining the hobby versus the expansion of supply (natural or unnatural).

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Posted By: T206Collector

Since we often purchase pre-ward cards based on recent auction selling prices, people will often bid a little bit more than the last sale in order to try to ensure a win. This leads to the gradual increasing of prices over time, assuming there are new entrants into the market for that card. As long as demand is there, prices will continue to rise.

I personally think that the more people putting T206 sets together get to 521, they are going to get hungrier for Plank, Magie, Doyle and Wagner. Wagner and Doyle are obviously out of sight already, but I think that we will be seeing strong movement on Plank and Magie. A lot of people who thought, well I'll just get one of those eventually for a few thousand dollars are not going to be able to find a market for them. Take a look at how many people have been seeking low grade Magie's on the BST as well as on ebay. $7,400 for a PSA 1 Magie last week...

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ih=006&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWA%3AIT&viewitem=&item=160118217634&rd=1&rd=1

...when one in April went for $5,300 in April.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ih=011&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWA%3AIT&viewitem=&item=320101202822&rd=1&rd=1

Granted the most recent PSA 1 was a beauty with a large spot of paper loss on the back, but still -- these are PSA 1's we're talking about. The next time someone wants a PSA 1 Magie, it will be at least mid-$5K, I would imagine, if not meaningfully higher.

I think scarce T206 cards, including O'Hara, Demmitt and Elberfeld, is the way to go now.

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Posted By: Jason L

said the guy with the new Plank!

You make a very good, and I think, correct, point.
Unfortunately, that kind of phenomenon that we are seeing, means that I have approached my T206 collecting from the wrong direction (commons first, HOFers to follow)...but we press on!

edited to add: I am trying to correct my ways with the recent purchase of the Lundgren (Chi) variant...happily got that puppy out of the way!

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Posted By: Dave F

Paul,
Would you then say that commons and low grade HOF'ers, be it from T206, T205 or one of the more common E sets could very well decrease in price?

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Posted By: T206Collector

...are my speciality, whether it's pumping up SGC or sharing countless pics of my Plank and Magie cards.

But, I never would have sold 80% of my set to get the Plank if I wasn't putting my cards where my mouth is, so to speak.

I do think that some T206 cards have a higher propensity for losing value -- As an example, I am surprised that yellow background Chances (which were super printed) sell for as much as they have been lately. They used to get put in the same price slot as, say, Joss pitching or even a Beckley or Kelley.

I would prefer to collect the rare HOFers and SL'ers first, this time around, but I can't resist a good price on an SGC 50 common -- I was able to pick up the rare Donlin fielding in an SGC 50 on ebay last night for $75! That card has regularly sold for well over $100.

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Posted By: Steve Murray

"In the short term, I would be concerned with issues that are thinly traded."

Brian has hit the nail square on the head! Until new blood enters the hobby with an interest in some thinly traded issues prices will stagnate and in most cases fall.

A prime example is the 1911 Zeenut set. Overlooked only a year ago a few collectors started actively working on the set. The result was a price escalation that peaked when most of these collectors reached a certain point in the set. Most of those active collectors are within ten cards or so of completion and there is a lot of duplication on the wantlists. If one of those cards comes on the market it will be katie bar the door but if any of the other 112 cards comes on the market little interest will be shown and the offerings will go wanting or close at seriously lower prices.

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Posted By: Ken W.

I have been wondering, if and when Fidel Castro finally kicks the buckett, will there be a more open trading market with Cuba, and how might that affect the Cuban baseball card pops and prices? Personally, I would love for there to be an influx of cards coming over, so that maybe I could afford a few more HOFers! But perhaps the Cuban people have long ago disposed of their collectables or sold them for food. Priorities and all! Any thoughts?

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Posted By: Jason L

I guess it depends on how these cards were originally distributed?
(as to finding out about the supply)...

perhaps our resident experts (Chad, et al) could chime in here...

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Posted By: leon

IMO it's easy economics barring some world wide/US market disaster. I have always bought scarcity, as I enjoy it, and it has done very well for me.....HOWEVER, there are glitches to these thinly traded issues. I was underbidder on 2 of the Alpha Engraving (commons if you can call them that) cards at low five figures....I guess everyone that wanted one, for the time being, got one....as each one in REA went for about 4k plus juice....so there can definitely be "gotcha's" in the scarcity/value proposition. Really though if we look at it the supply/demand equation worked perfectly in this scenario. The demand had somewhat dried up and there were 2 on the market at the same time. I agree that the high end market (SGC88/PSA8) and above could take a hit depending on registry folks....it still all goes back to supply vs demand....I would also mention I believe there are more people coming into our field than totally getting out so, over time, that should generally drive the market up somewhat....regards

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Posted By: Leslie Westbrook

It seems to me that once the T-206's hit that 100-year-old mark, there will be no significant price drops for the cards. That 100 mark means more media attention to the set an thus collector interest and hopefully NEW collector interest.

Perhaps if my assumption proves true, other later tobacco sets and singles will decrease in price--if only briefly--at that time a couple of years from now. We'll see.

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Posted By: Andrew

I don't think that any pre-war sets are going to decrease. Frankly, as a buyer I am frustrated by the prices that prewar cards are going for on eBay. There is a seller who offers free shipping auctioning some of the cards I need to fill holes in my collection and it seems that no matter how high I bid, someone always outbids me in the last two seconds. People are bidding higher on one seller's raw cards than on the same conditon cards other sellers' cards are offering already in PSA slabs!? It's frustrating and just doesn't make any sense to me. I suppose I'd feel better if I was selling instead of buying.

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Posted By: barrysloate

It's all supply and demand. The demand is strong but there are always market glitches. Sometimes a set gets hot and you will see people on ebay putting crazy snipes on certain cards. Once they finish up, the pricing comes back down to normal. But in the long term vintage material is likely to remain strong.

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Posted By: Dave F

I'm not sure how not a single set could decrease. As far as T206's, just the amount they have jumped up alone in the past 10 years is crazy. Just seems there are too many of them to go up much further..maybe I should just hope they retain their current value.

Some of the other issues, E107's and the likes...I can't imagine them going up much more either. They are expensive as all heck now....which takes out 95% of the collectors who go after pre-war cards that are out of the running on basically any E107. If E107's continued up in value..and basically doubled over the next 10 years, how many people could at that point go after them? I understand scarcity as an issue..but still..things can only be worth so much before the collecting population is priced out.

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Posted By: bryan

i think i know the seller he is referring to and the reason for the outrageous bidding is because that collection originates from one of the old-time collectors and the seller consistently undergrades. i won two cards from them that came back from psa a full grade higher than was stated in the description. the price on that T3 being sold right now does seem insane though.

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

In a roundabout way, we've discussed this issue before, it is indeed supply and demand. However, what makes pre-war vintage special is that there is a group of hardcore collectors that will step in if a set price drops too much thus triggering a turnaround. So if you want to find the set that will decrease the most, look for the set that has few if any hardcore collectors.

Peter

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Posted By: Dylan

Paul is that really a fair comparison though? Your comparing two cards graded a PSA 1 but one presents vg-ex from the front while the other looks like a psa 1 no matter how you look at it. This is why i dont like comparing auction prices with cards at the lower end of the grading spectrum, too much disparity in condition and presentation. Compare two Magie's that look nearly identical, with the same grade, and then you have a much more solid arguement.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...that's why I said, "Granted the most recent PSA 1 was a beauty with a large spot of paper loss on the back, but still -- these are PSA 1's we're talking about. The next time someone wants a PSA 1 Magie, it will be at least mid-$5K, I would imagine, if not meaningfully higher."

If they were equal in quality, and the more recent one sold for $7,400, the next one I would expect to sell close to $8K.

The fact is, if you are going to bid on a PSA 1 Magie next week, you'd like to know what those two went for and bid accordingly. And no matter what the new PSA 1 Magie looked like, the $7,400 Magie would only positively influece your bidding decision.

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Posted By: Brett

I think if alot of big time collectors decide to sell off their entire collections, there will be more of the cards on the market for everyone to buy.. so maybe some prices will go down ?? I can't beleive the prices for t206s in the past year.... wayyyyy too much

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Posted By: peter chao

Paul,

I agree with you the T-206 set is not likely to go down any time soon, however, which set will.

Peter

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Posted By: T206Collector

...so I am only comfortable saying that some T206 cards, like Chance Yellow, have a propensity to go down.

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Posted By: Adam

I for one think the second PSA 1 Magie that Paul provided the link to is a gem.

I also note that in PSA's July 2007 magazine, Joe Orlando gives his "top 5" picks for the "most underrated pre-war baseball cards." Number one on the list is the T206 Plank.

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Posted By: peter chao

Adam,

What were the other cards.

Peter

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Posted By: Bob

There is a really good rule of thumb to follow regarding the prices and values for pre-war cards, and this is guaranteed: check whatever I am currently pursuing and the prices will be going full tilt boogie, any set which I have completed or am close and not actively pursuing the bulk of the cards(like the 1911 Zeenuts) and the prices will slide.

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Posted By: Adam

Rounding out the top 5 were:

2. 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth;
3. 1934 Goudey Lou Gehrig;
4. 1938 Goudey Joe DiMaggio; and
5. 1941 Play Ball Ted Williams.

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Posted By: peter chao

Adam,

This is only a layperson's opinion but the Playball Sets have gone up a lot within the last five years. The 1940 R335 set looks like it's ready to drop, there are few major stars in the set and it's not a pretty black and white set. Could be ready for a major drop in set price.

Peter

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

Old Judges have tailed off somewhat. There are a scant few people collecting poses, so certain poses will go nutso but the 'common' ones in average condition have seen somewhat of a decrease.

Also....T210's in certain series. Again, a few players working on complete sets and they've tailed off quite a bit over time.

Wonder about Contentneas and T211's into the future. They are all so scarce that it may not happen.

Great question.......

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Posted By: Mark Lutz

I am impressed with the fact that a couple of eager buyers can spend tons of money on cards from a set and yet there is no subsequent flood of supply on ebay. Look at some recent prices for some E120's and E121's. If a handful of buyers can dramatically affect the price of a whole set, then I don't think that we are likely to see a fall in demand any time soon.

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Posted By: Dylan

What has amazed me is the price southern leaguers are selling for. Ive been tracking ex-mt sales, and southern leaguers are outselling by far all but the most prized HOF'ers. I always felt HOF'ers were a solid investment because while pop reports can change, being in the HOF doesnt, but its looked like southern leaguers have been one of the best investments of them all. Some of the prices have gotten ridiculous. Some will sell for twice as much as others for little rhyme or reason, tough to know whats going on these days

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Posted By: Dave S

Dylan..I agree 100% that the SL'er's have become a hot, hot commodity..but think if you are limiting the tracking to only "EX-MT" examples, you're gonna find the same (or at least similar) patterns with most any card. Upper grades are always in demand...always outweigh the supply..

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Posted By: Jeff Sherman

I think its been pretty well documented that PSA 8 1933 Goudey commons have dropped since the big boys have finished out there PSA 8 buying sprees... same for 1939 Play Balls... somewhere up there ahead of me, someone made the point that, once the big Registry builders are finished with their acquisitions, prices will "normalize," which I take to mean drop, which is what has happened already to a couple of sets being built like crazy by people with too much money....

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Posted By: peter chao

Jeff,

Your (accurate usage, explained to me by Barry and Jeff L.) comment reflects a real world example of my theory. The registry guys are investors in a sense, they are trying to complete their sets for resale down the road. When the prices start dropping the question becomes whether there is a sufficient group of hardcore collectors to pick up the slack.

For the '33 Goudey cards there's a heck of a large collector base, however, they are collectors and may not care to pay significant premiums for PSA 8, unless it's Benny Bengough perhaps.

So it's quite possible for there to be significant drop for high-end Goudey commons because the collector base to stop the fall may not be there.

Peter

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Posted By: Mark Lutz

OK. Some high end set registry guys drove the price of psa 8 Goudeys. But how many buyers are you talking about? 8? 10? If a small number of people can have such a big impact on the market, then even a small increase in the number of high end buyers could send prices up again. Are some of these speculators? Maybe. Is the set registry a fad? Yes. But in general interest seems strong and supply seems short.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

As far as I can tell there have been more people selling off high grade 1933 Goudey cards over the past year or two, than there have been new collectors entering that market. (I happen to be one of the latter.) Perhaps because of this, the prices for 1933 Goudeys do seem to have softened a bit. Going forward, my guess is that these cards will continue to hold their book value (about $400 for a PSA 8 common, or $1000+ if from the low number series). After all, 1933 Goudey is widely considered to be one of the classic all-time baseball card sets, and I expect there will always be a significant level of demand for the cards, stars and commons alike. But you may see less of the bidding wars that have driven prices for high grade low population commons through the roof on many occasions.

I do have my Goudey set listed on the PSA set registry, with images posted for each of the cards, so other collectors who are interested in the set can see what the cards look like. I am not playing the numbers game of trying to have the 'best' set in the world. I consider myself a collector, not an investor (except for tax reporting purposes ), as I have no intention to re-sell them in the foreseeable future, and I am certainly not 'speculating' on them. My 18 year old son is a baseball history whiz and he is delighted to see the original cards of Red Ruffing and other players that he has a keen interest in. That is more important to me than what the card might sell for at some future time.

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Posted By: JimB

Eric,
I just looked at your set on the Registry. That is a beautiful set!
JimB

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Eric, I agree with your position and your set is fantastic. Thanks for making the effort to post the scans of your cards.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Thanks JimB and Jeff, it was indeed a lot of work to scan all those cards. But now the cards themselves are in a safety deposit box, so when I want to see what a card looks like, I pull up the scan on the computer. Not quite like the real thing, but close enough.

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Posted By: leon

Eric that is a great set of cards you have there. As one who has done a fair amount of scanning of cards for a website I can reaffirm the enormous amount of time it takes. Thanks for sharing..As for a set decreasing in value I am unsure...It's been seen that after a few hobbyists get their sets complete there can be swings in price, as you mentioned, but overall I don't see too many, if any, pre-war sets devaluing too much very soon.....regards

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

There simply cannot be that many fools trying to complete a registry set. Like who would want to complete a 1968 Topps set in PSA 9. Beats me, so after the registry people get their cards look for a big drop-off in prices.

There might be a few guys looking for PSA 8 T206 commons, but I'm not one of them. So my prediction is the T206 will be the first to experience a major drop in price. Actually I'm kidding. Considering all the T206 collectors on this board it is the last thing I would like to see happen.

Peter

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Thanks Leon, it's been a pleasure for me to be able to assemble a high quality 1933 Goudey set, and displaying these cards on the PSA set registry so other collectors can appreciate them adds to the enjoyment.

I have always felt that I am not so much the 'owner' of my classic vintage baseball cards, as I am their 'custodian'. These cards are part of card collecting history, indeed part of baseball history itself, and in a sense they belong to everybody. Someday, someone else will own the cards that I have now, and I hope they view them the same way.

I think people who refer to anyone who lists sets on the registry as 'fools' and 'freaks' (this would include Marshall Fogel, Josh Wolf, Scott Ireland, John Branca, etc.) are severely misguided.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Eric, I find that much of the criticism -- not all -- comes from jealous collectors who wish they could afford to spend the money to complete high grade Registry sets. The most laughable criticism is that these high end collectors are simply idiots. The obvious question that is never asked by those that would criticize is: how do you think the fools got the money to spend on these cards -- by being idiots or by being smarter than you?

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Jeff, I think you are right. It comes across to me as a 'sour grapes' type mentality. Thinking like: I can't do what they do, so what they do must be bad or stupid. Or: They must be blindly buying the holder, not the card, so they can run up their registry ratings to impress their friends. There may be some people on the registry who do that, but to lump them all together that way is absurd.

Anyhow, I don't want to start one of those awful 'investor vs. collector' or 'armpit vs. backbone' type discussions here. There have been more than enough of those already, and they seldom reach a happy conclusion for anyone.

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Posted By: peter chao

Okay, I'll stop bitching and moaning about the registry people. However, I will say this, people are going to buy T206's in a grade that is similar to what they already have. Let's put it this way I have T206's in PSA 3 and 4. I'm certainly not going to waste my money on a Walter Johnson portrait in PSA 7 or 8.

The reverse is also probably true. Somebody that collects PSA 7 or better isn't going to be buying PSA 3 or 4.

Once the set registry people have bought their PSA 7 or 8's, whose going to be the next person to buy at that level. A new collector probably won't start out at that level. Somebody who wants to compete with the registry people will see that somebody else has a T206 set in PSA 7 already. Their unlikely to want to compete from scratch. So the question becomes who is going to be person that picks up the slack.

My answer is there will be nobody there to pick up the slack. Thus the price will continue dropping until somebody decides they will pick up the slack. It might be the guy that's collecting T206 in PSA 6 who wouldn't mind having a few PSA 8s in his collection. But the guy probably won't step in until the price drops.

Peter

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Peter, I'm not sure what's worse: your spelling or your predictions.

I have about 50 T206s in PSA 7 and 8 (or SGC equivalent). I have zero interest in completing the set in any level. I just like PSA 7 and 8s if I can get them. I have some 6s and 5s. I never thought about not buying the 7s and 8s because other people had more of them.

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Posted By: Frank Evanov

Peter, I think you should stick to the Ron Santo threads. Your predictions don't make much sense. As one of the "fools", along with Jeff et al, I collect HOF T206 cards in several grades ranging from 4 to 7. I always have an eye out for a nice card to upgrade my set whether it be a 6 or an 8. So your logic is very flawed.


PS: "Jeff et al" is not a person's name; it means Jeff and others.

Frank