REA Catalog Just Arrived

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Posted By: barrysloate

I just this morning received my REA catalog and had a chance to give it a once over. Of the two major auctions running simultaneously, it is unquestionably much richer in 19th century historical artifacts. Both auctions, of course, have enough material to keep bidders busy.

But "enough material" is by far an understatement. To cite just a single example, both REA and Mastro have not one but two T206 Eddie Planks. So in the course of 24 hours, FOUR T206 Planks will hit the auction block.

Do those kind of numbers concern anyone? I could probably find fifty more examples where multiples of scarce or desirable pieces are closing that weekend. Does anybody else feel we are seeing a market dump?

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I guess time will tell once these auctions are completed. I too was surprised at the seeming high inventory of purportedly 'rare' cards. It will be interesting as the auctions will test the long-mentioned 'rule' that the market will determine the value of an item no matter how exorbitant the sales price is. I, for one, have always doubted that because the high end card market is very thin. Often two heavy hitters will drive up a price of a card that, without the existence of the other bidder, would have resulted in a much lower price. What happens when both of those bidders are selling those cards instead of bidding in an auction?

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Posted By: Joe D.

I must say:

WOW!, wow!, and wOw!

What an incredible book to look through. It is probably going to take me a couple of weeks!

As far as a market dump - I say heck no. But even if a little of that is going on... it should not be a concern. Just like in the stock market... any dump helps create a new base and is a healthy and necessary part of any future growth.


Did I remember to say 'WOW' about the catalog?



edit to say:
I think what we are really seeing is this. Increasingly, the only good place to find stuff is in the auctions. Its getting harder and harder to find anything interesting at shows or on eBay. The auction houses are doing a great job at winning the battle of being 'the' sales venue for good stuff. So, maybe the great numbers you are seeing is more reflective of stuff that just doesn't show up at card shows, eBay, private sales any more.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- if you had consigned one of the Planks and now saw that it was competing with three others, would you be equally enthusiastic?

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Posted By: Joe D.

I would prefer consigning an item that was the only one in an auction... no doubt.


But my enthusiasm, or lack there of, would come from the check I receive from the auction house, and the final price received.

So - we are going to have to wait and see whether or not this is going to hurt the consignor.

It is possible that this may help each of the Plank consignors... as whoever is truly going to look to grab a Plank will probably bid on all of them up until a certain point. So, maybe the number of initial bids will be greater than usual. (I don't know)

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- again, you are the consignor. Are you looking at all the early qualifying bids, or the final bid? I think you are skirting the issue.

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Posted By: Joe D.

I stated that
"my enthusiasm, or lack there of, would come from the check I receive from the auction house, and the final price received."

and that "I would prefer consigning an item that was the only one in an auction... no doubt."


The other portion of my post that mentions the early bids was just conjecture that although at first glance you may think 4 Planks is a bad thing for a consignor... it is possible that it will lead to an increase in bidding early on. More early bids is good for the consignor.

They all may feed on each other and pull each other up. Any bid on one may result in bids for others.

Similar to a 'food court' in a mall. More of the same product sometimes attracts more action.


I don't know if it will or will not work to the consignor's advantage. If we were talking about 50 Planks I would say it would be bad. But if there are more than 4 legitimate potential Plank Buyers (say 6 real buyers)... this may very well help each one of them.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- in 2004 I auctioned a T206 Plank graded SGC 50 for $68,532. To this day it is still a record not only for a VG-EX example but for an EX as well. Do you know why I got such an extraordinary price? I'd like to think it is because I have the greatest auction house in the land, but the real reason is two bidders went back and forth all night.

However, if I were fortunate enough to have had two VG-EX Planks in that auction, my guess is each bidder would have gotten one for about 25-30K.

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Posted By: Steve M.

You see it over and over again, in auction houses, on ebay, you get two bidders who go head to head and drive the price to unrealistic levels. Barry, you are right on. Two Planks, half the price, at best. Four Planks? I might consider withdrawing my consignment.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

If those two who battled it out for Barry's Plank had a little patience they could have saved themselves about 20-30 grand. The Plank may be scarce, but it is a card that comes up more than once a year almost every year.

PS Steve, you may want to check out a thread below titled "Photo ID Help Please" from Chris as it has what I believe to be a team photo of the Springfield Ponies.

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Posted By: Dave Hornish

I just got mine.....a hefty tome indeed.

I had parked this elsewhere but think it was missed-Rob's advertising has gotten more sophisticated over the years.. Love these old SCD ads.....

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Posted By: barrysloate

I might add that the main reason the card did well is that it was undergraded, and should have properly been graded a 60. The winning bidder came over with his loupe and examined it for half an hour and also realized it was undergraded. The underbidder lived out of town and didn't have that advantage.

The main point is this is an example of supply and demand. I agree if I were in the market for a Plank I would qualify on all four and bounce back and forth as necessary. But in the end I bet I walk away with one of them for a more than fair price. Not suggesting a steal, but certainly no records will be set here. Each of the four winners will be very happy with his respective cost.

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Posted By: Phil Garry

Wow!!

I was hoping to see a couple of Joe Jackson E90-1 RC's to choose from but I only spotted one being sold as an individual lot.

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Posted By: Steve M.

Thought I saw 2.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I think I saw three Jacksons between the two auctions!

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Posted By: Joe D.

I definitely yield to your experience in the matter.

maybe I am overly optomistic with the possibility of it not hurting the consignor.

you would know better than me (and most).


and for the record - certain cards I have, I don't want to see another example aywhere (unless it is being sold to me) - so if I ever decided to put it them in an auction - it would be a bummer to see another one being auctioned at the same time.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- there is an item I still have left in my collection that I have long thought to be unique in private hands. Well, a second one has just shown up in one of these two auctions (sorry, I won't reveal which one it is). I now have a dilemma. Do I buy a second one, to at least preserve the integrity of my piece? I probably have to, or at least make sure it sells to someone else for a high price.

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Posted By: George Dreher

I still haven't received my REA catalog, but have already pinpointed over 100 lots I'm going to bid on in the Mastro Sports and a couple dozen in the Mastro Americana.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i agree guys...several duplicate lots in both auctions...i think about 5 Jax CJ's between both auctions!

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Posted By: Jason L

looks like a market peak here...if only temporary, but certainly seems like the market has become alot more liquid in the last year...things being pulled out of the closets all across America.

and yes, multiple lots of key rarities could mean soft prices resulting from this month's clearance sales!

That REA book came today...pretty amazing to browse thru

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Posted By: Joe D.

I say bid, bid, and bid some more.

you can't let that rarity go elesewhere.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- I think you're right.

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Posted By: Dave Stinsman

When was the last time you say 37 E125's in a single auction? REA has some real treasures. Add mastro's Auction to that and it's just an overload. I wish all the E125's were broken down to single items but some are in larger lots. Of course the one card I want is in a larger group of A's players.

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Posted By: Alan

I've been saying these 2 statements for many years now:

1) There is no shortage of quality material in these high end auctions.
2) There is no shortage of collectors who want & can afford this material.

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Posted By: Julie Vognar

(1869 Peck and Snyder, cartoon back, number 22). About one and a half yaars ago, Barry said that normally, the Old Judges followed a pattern. SHORTAGE; they come out of the closet; slight glut; prices should fall, but they don't because OJs are in such demand from everyone. But this time, he said,there really are a LOT of them out there, so maybe the prices will fall some. Sure enough, with 78 lots i last year's REA, everything exceeded my wildest expectations...except the Old Judges.

So Barry is probably right again.

Hello, Barry!

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Posted By: Brian

Barry,
That was the first thing I noticed upon perusing the two catalogs. All those incredible Ruth cards, too....

Don't you think this is more just a confluence of unusual circumstances? The sale of the T206 Wagner (check out all those great Wagners on the block), the very strong prices in the market, and some very notable collections being sold off?

I doubt it is a "market peak" or is signaling any decline. I would not be unhappy if it were, because I am a collector first and foremost and could use some bargains. All told, I sincerely doubt that there will be an "steals," even for cards that are represented multiple times, which is unfortunate because there are a multitude of cards I have been fantasizing about for the past few years!


Brian

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Posted By: barrysloate

I think what we are seeing is a slight market shift. A few major collectors have left the hobby, and many others have decided it's a good time to sell. When you take a few key players out, and mix that with perhaps a little too much more material than is healthy (always great to have a T206 Plank on the block; four at the same time is not) you will begin to see a slight shift in the market.

I think we are entering a phase where some, but not all prices, will begin to soften a little. There are still great lots and rare cards that will set records. But not all material falls into that category.

Let's see how things fall after this auction season and see if any new patterns emerge.

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Posted By: Dan Koteles

Barry I do believe it is a dump ,but only due to the market still being good. Who would have thought that there would be 4 of them, I doubt that Bill and Rob call each other and say, "lets put 2 Planks in each auction. Just the way the ball fell.

There probably is more then enough rich guys to battle for these , but I do guess they would go for a little less. These auctions are more geared with those w/more money and with the Planks being quite desirable, I think that all will be pleased. My belief would be that one would more steadily pursue a Plank , then a really tough caramel card. I would like a Plank, just cannot afford one.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Dan- you are exactly right that it is a coincidence that four Planks are going off at once. And there are at least four or more people out there who want one.

I predict that each of the four go for a respectable price commensurate with its condition. But there won't be any fireworks.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

...i'll be the first to say, that i will definitely be going after one of the planks.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Michael- you'll have about as good an opportunity as you could possibly hope for (but you should keep it under your hat).

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i just won't say which one...there are 17 to choose from...

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Posted By: barrysloate

Good one!

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Posted By: Dylan

Incredible auction.. loaded with 19nth century cards, and a complete set of Ramly T204, how often do you see that? Its true that with multiples of the same rare cards prices could be softer but there wont be any crazy deals to be had. Its not the first time that a very sought after card has been listed several times at once. With the market as strong as its been, its no surprise that people are selling so much. It seems that high priced items purchased only a year or two ago are already back at the auction block. That tells you how much appreciation weve seen.

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Posted By: barrysloate

You won't get a bargain on a complete set of Ramlys, but I still say if you do your homework you will find some good values. There's just too much to choose from, something has to slip.

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Posted By: Rob Dewolf

I'm interested to hear opinions about how much -- if any -- responsibility falls on an auction house to tell a would-be consignor (or a consignor already on board) that there's already a similar item (i.e. a T206 Plank) in the auction. This isn't to imply that either REA or Mastro didn't make the sellers of the Planks aware that theirs wouldn't be the only one in the respective auctions. I have no idea. But I know that if I was consigning an item like a Plank and the catalog arrived and there was another offered in addition to mine, I wouldn't be happy had I not been notified before I signed the papers.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

The altered Plank in the Mastro auction was sold out of the holder just 4 months ago in the prior Mastro auction. It was bought, slapped into a PSA holder and here it is again. Anyone know what it went for in the last auction? It was lot 1176.

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Posted By: Zach Rice

http://www.mastronet.com/index.cfm?action=DisplayContent&ContentName=Lot%20Information&LotIndex=65946&CurrentRow=1

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Zach, thanks -- where on the Mastro site can you find prior auctions?

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Posted By: Robert Lifson

Just a quick follow up on this thread suggesting that four T206 Planks up for auction at the same time (2 at REA and 2 at Mastro) might put a damper on prices. I can certainly understand the thinking but after the fact it does not appear to have had any impact at all. The two T206 Planks in REA each sold for record prices for their grades:

Lot 138) The PSA 1 PR-FR sold for $18,000 hammer price ($21,150 with the buyers premium).
http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/site/bidplace.aspx?itemid=8300

Lot 146) The PSA 2 Good sold for $30,000 hammer price ($35,250 with the buyers premium).

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/site/bidplace.aspx?itemid=8308

The laws of supply and demand apply to all cards, even T206 Eddie Planks, but it is interesting to note that the prices were extremely strong on these cards. I’m sure there are other cases that can be found with different cards where excess supply impacts prices negatively – and that’s the way it’s supposed to be! – but I think it’s hard to argue that these consignors did not do great even with four Planks available at the same time.

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Posted By: T206Collector

I won the Carter Plank in Mastro on Friday night. And I have a few, albeit self-serving, thoughts about the whole process.

Notwithstanding the fact that I paid through the nose for Carter's substantially beat up SGC 10 Plank (Friday Night Mastro), I believe I was helped by REA's auction for the PSA 1 Plank the next night (Saturday Night REA). First of all, there were half a dozen people who e-mailed me along the way and after that told me they were interested in a beater Plank for about $8,000-$10,000. But it was obvious to me all along -- given the trimmed colorless issue that went for $13K last year -- that it would take meaningfully over $15,000 to acquire one, regardless of condition. And, a lot of people said they were more interested in REA's PSA 1 since it was in better condition than Mastro's SGC 10. So, I believe a number of bidders said, "well, if I'm going to spend over $15K on a 1, then I'll just bid on the cleaner REA PSA 1 the next night." And, I thought about doing just that myself, but when two people opt not to bid on one thing in order to save their bid for the next thing, that will lower the price on the first and raise the price on the second. There just had to be that mindset among at least two bidders, since, again, I was really super close to joining that fray, too. So I concentrated on the earlier auction, knowing that whatever the SGC 10 sold for on Friday, the PSA 1 would sell for more on Saturday. Indeed, prices in later auctions are almost always driven by prices in earlier auctions, so long as there are more than 2 interested bidders in both.

So, again, I thank those that punted the Mastro SGC Plank in favor of bidding on the REA PSA 1 Plank. I think you kept the Mastro SGC Plank at a reasonable price (all things considered), while the next day driving up the value of Plank 1's generally. I understand my SGC 10 is in much worse shape than the REA PSA 1, but when people talk about prices for PSA 1 Planks, that number will now start a $20,000. It will be interesting to see the next sales price of another Plank in comparable condition. I happen to think, given Wagner's escalation, that Plank and Magie have begun to and will continue to follow suit. In the 1980's, Lipset said that Plank was valued at about 25% of Wagner. While that number has certainly gotten smaller, there are just way too many people putting together T206 sets today not to drive up the prices of the ultra scarcities. People balked at beater Wagners selling for $20,000 years ago, too.

In short, I don't think the REA consignors got hurt by the Planks that sold the previous night. I think they benefited. I'm not sure the consignors of the Planks from the previous night could say the same thing. But I do agree that Planks (and Magies) will be breaking price records for the foreseeable future.

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Posted By: barrysloate

If there were only one Plank for sale between the two auction houses, interested bidders would have had no option except to bid as high as they possibly could. As Paul noted, with four available simultaneously, bidders were able to strategize, and for that matter interact with each other before the lots closed. It's reasonable to think some agreed not to bid on one if someone else agreed not to bid on another.

I never expected that the four Planks would be sold for bargains, just that there would clearly be some level of collusion, and that it would create a perception that maybe the card is not quite as rare as advertised. As Rob pointed out, the interest in acquiring one is great, so the supply and demand curve remained in balance.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...I very much doubt that the bidders that went over $17K (incl. juice) for the PSA 1 Plank in REA on Saturday night would have just sat on their hands on Friday night if Lionel Carter's SGC 10 Plank were the only one up for auction that weekend. I would have expected more competition.

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Posted By: Joe D.

with 4 Planks... as long as their were more than 4 legitimate Plank buyers out there bidding -
the supply may have actually helped the end result (each feeding on each other).... and may not have hurt it at all.

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Posted By: Frank Evanov

Sorry, but IMO I think this is a classic case of buying the holder and not the card. The REA was much nicer and brought a better price and will continue to do so in the future. The REA winner got the better of the deal here.

This for $16.4K



vs this for $21.3 is no contest.



Frank

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Posted By: Wesley

I agree with Frank that the REA copy seems the better buy even though it was more expensive.

Now comparing apples to oranges, I would much rather have the SGC 30 E107 Plank sold in Mastro over either of those T206 Planks regardless of price.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...that condition is no contest. But I was most certainly not purchasing the holder or the grade. I was purchasing the cheapest Plank available at that time -- and I do not think they will be getting any cheaper.

And, now that a PSA 1 has sold for over $20K, I also believe that the entry point for low grade Planks, even beaters, will be $20K. Who knows when another one will become available?

The same phenomena is occuring with Magies. The last couple of beaters on ebay have each gone over $5K, and are on their way up. Last year they were in the low $4K's.

Just my opinion, and again, it is self-serving.

edited to add that if I had gotten involved in the REA PSA 1, then the bidding would have been over $20K, and I was not interested in spending over $20K on a Plank, even if it was a "better deal." Heck, I think the SGC 30 that sold for over $30K is a great deal, too!

ALSO.... I believe SGC 50/PSA 4 cards are better deals at $40-$60 than beaters at $20. But if you're trying to buy the cheapest T206 cards, then you will not be purchasing many SGC 50/PSA 4's...

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Posted By: barrysloate

Sometimes buying the cheapest one possible turns out to be the best deal, especially if the price keeps escalating, which is certainly likely.

And I agree with Joe D. to a point that with four Planks there will be several bidders who qualify on all four and bounce from one card to another. But while I think it will keep all four cards very busy during the middle part of the auction, I'm not sure it helps them attain a higher level at the end. And it's really the last bid that is the one that counts.

Nevertheless, they all performed well and my initial concerns seemed not to be relevant.

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Posted By: Todd Schultz

I don't see this as a classic case of buying the holder. Both cards are graded poor--really can't be downgraded any further--and both cards are in poor condition. At that point, eye appeal rules, as is the case with many lower graded cards. The REA Plank is nicer--that is conceded, but I'm not sure I would have paid another 33%, i.e. $5K for that "upgrade". I'd take either card though, and the observations about the bidding patterns is very interesting.