T206 Softening?

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Posted By: T206Collector

Anybody think that T206 cards have softened in the last 12 months? I was just reviewing VintageCardPrices.com and just about every card I looked at had higher selling examples 8-10 months ago. A one off example -- I am surprised that this SGC 60 sold as low as it did:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-T-206-Larry-Doyle-With-Bat-SGC-60-Sovereign_W0QQitemZ200057590567QQihZ010QQcategoryZ 57993QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

The market is still higher than it was three or four years ago, to be sure, but not quite as high as it was in early 2006 or even in 2005.

Thoughts? Comments?

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Posted By: MVSNYC

well, 12 months ago to the day...common PSA 7's were in the $650-700 range, as of late they usually sell $900-1100 (some for even over $1400 depending on pops, or who needs them)...obviously there are going to be some flukes that slip by for 700-800, but on average they hover around $1000 ($300 more than last year this time)...

4's & 5's seem to be very strong. common 5's routinely sell in the $110-125 range, often more...last year this time, 5's could be found around $80-100.

i just bought 2 PSA 4's on eBay- one was an old mill for $80 and a sweet caporal for $65...those prices seem pretty strong to me for PSA 4's...

rare backs have been on fire (a PSA 3 carolina brights just ended tonight on eBay for around $450!...i bought PSA 3, 2 months ago for $250)...

higher grade pieces (8's & 9's) can be a little more eratic, just because the bidding always depends on who needs what & pops...but that type of material is always in demand.

T206 market might be volitle at times, but is still very strong IMO.

P.S. T206 collector- i have usually found that PSA commands a premium over SGC as far as T206 cards go...not surprised about the Doyle SGC 5.

last week there were 2 SGC 7 commons with buy it now's for 695 & 795, they just sat there for awhile...meantime PSA 7's were selling for well over $1000...

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Posted By: Lee

I too have noticed a price slump lately in some T206's. I think that plentiful T206's such as low to mid grade commons (graded up to a 5) and plentiful HOF's are going down a bit in selling prices.....This may be a good time to pick up these cards. I think that Cobb and other notible players such as Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, and other continue to sell for "the going rate."

I have also noticed a price slump in Lajoie T206's, with PSA 2 portraits sometimes selling for around $125, much lower than the usual $175-$200.

I've started to only buy T206's that I can get very cheap for what they are when the T206 market fluctuates. I don't think T206's are going down overall in value, it is just somethings in the set get hot and others get cold because it is such a big set. The whole set can't be completely (and equally) popular at one time. After all, I have found many appealing ways to pursue T206's.

You know, that is a great price for a SGC 60 Doyle T206! I wish I would have seen it!

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Posted By: MVSNYC

oh, and Southern Leaguers? they are simply on fire...

5's for $400-500
6's for $800-1000
7's for $2000-2500
8's...good luck

they are at an all time high...

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Posted By: Lee

I too have noticed the increased SL Prices; some 4's are going for over $200 right now. This really surprises me because they are outselling some HOF's in the same grade.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i am not surprised at all, SLer's are scarcer than HOFers...HOFers are plentiful...just do a little exercise and look at the PSA pop reports...

most SLers have been graded 60, 70 times...maybe

HOFers? try 200, 300, etc...

bottom line is...supply & demand, both are always in high demand, but there are less SLers out there...

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Posted By: Brett

The prices of t206s are way too high considering the number of them out there compared to other 1910-ish sets...

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Posted By: Scot Reader

I think sixes have softened a bit recently since three collectors who were buying this grade have recently neared completion of their sets. I have seen little evidence of softening in other grades.

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Posted By: Dan Koteles

A Tinker port in a 4 went for over 300.00, but it was a nice one.
Evers portraits went for 875- 1000-1250-1377 all in 5 holders.So does this make the 5 I have that is better then all the above worth more? I won a Tinker port today in a 4 for a little over 260.00.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Guys,
Christmas is always hit or miss on EBAY, but for card collectors it's usually full of baragins. People overextend themselves on gifts and need cash, so there is usually a glut of merchandise, and less bidders. I always stock up on inventory during the holidays, as it will sell for 15-20% higher as the Baseball season comes around.

Be well Brian

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Posted By: JimCrandell

PSA 8s not going down.

Just represents a continued widening of the differential between psa 8s and grades lower.

jim

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Posted By: T206Collector

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-Card-JIMMY-DYGERT-Phila-Amer-PSA-8-NM-MT_W0QQitemZ300061236517QQihZ020QQcategoryZ31718QQ ssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

A PSA 8 with just 3 bids finishing for under $2,000 is a softening, no?

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Posted By: Peter Thomas

I think an 8 went for under $1000 with juice in an auction in the last 2 weeks. Heritage?

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Posted By: T206Collector

Here's 5 PSA 7's that sold for under $800 (and one under $700) in past week. So please don't tell me that PSA 7 commons "routinely" sell for over $1,000....

Under $800

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-11-T206-Frank-LaPorte-N-Y-Amer-PSA-7_W0QQitemZ160063437880QQihZ006QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-11-T206-Hal-Chase-Throwing-Dark-Cap-PSA-7_W0QQitemZ160063437999QQihZ006QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T206-RED-KLEINOW-NY-WITH-BAT-PSA-NM-7_W0QQitemZ230064363157QQihZ013QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T206-JIMMY-SCHECKARD-NO-GLOVE-SHOWING-PSA-NM-7_W0QQitemZ230064363099QQihZ013QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Under $700:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-11-T206-Bob-Unglaub-Washington-PSA-7_W0QQitemZ160063437553QQihZ006QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

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Posted By: leon

I was at the Heritage auction about a month or so ago, bidding live. There was a group of PSA 8 common T206's. A lot of them went for $1000-$1300 after juice. I wanted to bid on the one that went for about $900 and juice but the auctioneer dude messed up and went onto the next lot, closing it prematurely. I saw around 6-8 8's go for about $1300....after juice. I was there for something else and had a number/paddle so raised it a few times...and came away with a T206 common in an 8 holder...for about $1300 after juice. I sold it a few weeks later on ebay for $2200.....I love the registry people....regards

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Posted By: Scot Reader

Paul,

Most of the PSA 8s have sold for $1800-2500 recently. There is a PSA 8 Philippe on eBay right now selling for $2650 with 9 bids and plenty of time left (see below link). Hardly a softening at the high-end if you ask me.

The softening is at PSA 6, but I think it is temporary. The PSA 6 market was briefly distorted by a few set registrants who were competing for commons and willing to pay $600-$1000 per to get them. Near completion of their sets has left a temporary void and prices have returned to $200-400 per. Still, I think we will soon see some "new blood" at PSA 6 that will move prices back up to $400+.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-T-206-Deacon-Phillippe-PSA-8-1-of-2-PSA-8s_W0QQitemZ200059311656QQihZ010QQcategoryZ31718QQ ssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Scot

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Posted By: T206Collector

These are two SGC 88 Auction Prices (the equivalent of PSA 8). In the June Goodwin auction, a Killian portrait SGC 88 sold for $4,200.73. In the same auction (Goodwin) in October, an SGC 88 Dineen sold for $1,485.20. Now that is some difference, notwithstanding that the Killian portrait is a nicer card visually.

If someone with VIP membership to VintageCardPrices.com wouldn't mind posting the history of PSA 8 sales for 2006, that would be interesting to read -- and much more persuasive than the standard Jim Crandall PSA 8 promotion.

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Posted By: T206Collector

A couple of words about that Deacon auction...

First, Phillipe is a sought after player -- having pitched for the Pirates in the first World Series game ever against Cy Young; and

Second, you can never put stock into a price caused by the bidder named rosie7495 -- I met him at a card show once, and he told me that he will often just put bids of $4,000 on cards that should sell for half of that just because he can -- he puts a premium on winning ebay auctions. If you follow his bidding practices, they are basically always above market.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I think paying above market is the mindset of the PSA 8 collector. That is part of the reason why those prices keep skyrocketing. But the whole market seems to be about pop report. The history of a player or the desirability of the pose is irrelevant.

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Posted By: Anonymous

Once in a while a high pop common(6 or so) in psa 8 will go for under $2,000 but the average recently has been about $2,250 for the high pop commons. Pop 1 commons $5,500-$6,000; pop 2s $4,500-$5,500,; pop 3s $3,500-$4,500 and pop 4s $2,800-$3,500 although one just went for $4,500.

Jim

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Posted By: Anonymous

Barry,

You are correct. Aside from stars(hofs) its all about the pops and will be so in the future.

Jim

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Posted By: T206Collector

...if we could get some real analysis of the T206 market with actual examples. That's my only point.

Jim, feel free to chime in with your expert knowledge. But I'd prefer a copy/paste from VintageCardPrices.com -- choose PSA 8 in the T206 field and then copy the text and paste it in here.

About a year ago PSA 5 Lajoie cards were going for $1,000. They don't do that anymore. My question is why, and is that a potential problem for the remainder of the grades.

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

I thought you did not deem the VCP service needed for you to pay the additional money for full access out side of the SGC scope. I read the board every day and the members know not to post the data you are requesting. I usually post this information but not going to this time...there are records at VCP for 231 PSA 8's that you can use to search your theory.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-Card-GEORGE-STOVALL-Batting-PSA-8-NM-MT_W0QQitemZ300061234234QQihZ020QQcategoryZ31718QQ ssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-Card-CHIEF-MEYERS-NY-Natl-Portrait-PSA-8-NM-MT_W0QQitemZ300061235272QQihZ020QQcategoryZ31718QQ ssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-T206-Patsy-Dougherty-Arm-in-Air-PSA-8-NM-MT-Sharp_W0QQitemZ150072684028QQihZ005QQcategoryZ3171 8QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-11-T206-Ed-Hahn-Chicago-Amer-PSA-7_W0QQitemZ160063437706QQihZ006QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-11-T206-Lefty-Leifield-Pitching-PSA-7_W0QQitemZ160063438144QQihZ006QQcategoryZ31718QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


just some from recent auctions...

by the way, i have spoekn to a few collectors, the Heritage Auction had some good deals, but there were also many that sold for high amounts...it is all about who needs what and pops...

alot of it also had to do with the fact that Heritage is only now starting to become a big name in the the auction house business...Mastro's & REA are still the big guys, and not everyone knew about this Heritage auction.

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Posted By: T206Collector

Of course there are PSA 7's and 8's at the levels you and Jim are talking about. My point about needing examples is that the most persuasive argument would be a list of ebay auctions over the past year, which VintageBaseballCardPrices.com can do....

...which brings me to my next response to the owner and proprietor of that site:

Great website that fills my needs smashingly with the free SGC service. I would only use the PSA service for arguing with the PSA 8-heads, which is hardly worth my time, and isn't worth my money at this time. But I do apologize for trying to do an end-run around your fee structure on a particular feature of your website.

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Posted By: Cobby33

As much as I cringe at the prospect of validating any portion of the high-grade superciliousness, as someone pointed out, the 7's and 8's remain strong, especially in the auction house auctions. And, as someone else pointed out, these are especially high with regard to the Southern Leaguers.

As is the trend with most any cards, eBay auctions don't seem to garner the same dollars as Mastro, et al., which is a shame.

Finally, although vintagecardprices.com is a great resource, it sometimes misses auctions (eBay and others) and sometimes takes a week or two to update. But I think this is a reality of the amount of work that must go into providing such a service.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

One of the strongest selling points for T206 is that anyone can collect it (except for a few rarities). It is a logical starting point for prewar collectors.

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

This site has been a full time job for more then a year now. We check about 30,000 eBay auctions a week to make sure they are correct and visually see the cards before posting to the queue. Other auction houses we do not track in the same manner as eBay and post the results after they have concluded. The last Mastro and Memory Lame results where posted to the site in about 12 hours after closing. We have made a deal with Mile High and their next auction will be in our system. So that any members who have created "Want Lists" will get email notices with links. As well as the final postings the links will stay up to view the card like we have for eBay. We have come to an agreement with Mastro to do the same for their next auction as well.

I personally put in about 80-90 hours a week working on this site trying to make it better and more effective for the membership. I am sure any member can attest that every time they have brought something to my attention or asked a question, I have acted as fasat as humanly possible to answer or resolve any issue.

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Posted By: Anonymous

I snuck a few good deals around Nov. but have found prices for HOFers to be pretty strong here the last couple of weeks.

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Posted By: T206Collector

And, since I did, I thought I would post that there has been no movement in the PSA 8 market in the past 12 months. I will respect the terms of the website and not copy and paste the results here. But, suffice to say, there are and continue to be fluctuations, but there is certainly no trending upward while there are a few lower priced eyebrow raisers over the past two to three months.

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Posted By: Parmentier

I have noticed the T206 major HOF'ers in PSA 5 have declined 10-20 percent during the last half of 2006. I track ebay realized prices on "nice for the grade" T206 HOF'ers. In particular, the Lajoie cards can be had at very reasonable prices, right now, end of December. Tougher cards like the Cobb green portrait, however, commands top price, nearly $6000. in PSA 5. Second tier HOF'ers have also declined a bit - good time to pick up Mordecai Brown, Willie Keeler. Bottom line, I would not sell major T206 HOF'ers on ebay auction right now - wait for market to bounce back. Finally, that darn PSA set registry I feel is inflating PSA prices compared to SGC - I am thinking about crossover SGC 60's to get PSA 5's.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i have to say that one area that there should be no debate about softening, is rare backs...especially in the VG category. there is a Lenox common PSA 3 on eBay now, it is already at $338 and the auction just started a day or two ago, amazing...and VG Carolina Brights & Broad Leafs (350) have also been really strong as of late...wonder what my uzit 3 & drum 4 are worth...hmmm.