An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction

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Posted By: bruce dorskind

The strength of the market for super high grade pre WW II cards can not be questioned.

Even when said cards are auctioned on E Bay they continue to bring prices that
ran range between very impressive and simply astounding.

The great caution, as we have indicated on numerous occassions is that the
market remains relatively thin.

Let's look at the results

Total number of T 206 PSA 8 cards auctioned on September 13 17
Total value of prices realized $90,391
Average price realized per lot $ 5,317

Note: There were 5 cards with a pop 1 They represented 44% of the total value $ 39.444
Averaged price realzied for a "pop 1" $ 7.889

Average price realized for the 12 non "pop" 1 psa 8 T206 $4,4245

Number of collectors who won 1 or more items 6

Three well known "set registry" collectors won 14 of the 17 items
Each of these collectors finished second on one item
One collector won only 1 lot but finished 2nd 8 times

In 13 of the 17 lots, the four major players were both the winner and runner-up


We'd be interested to hear your comments regarding this auction and its implications
for other high grade pre-war collectors

Best,

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: barrysloate

If the market is indeed thin then some of the prices you see may be unreliable as indicators of the state of the market. The deeper the market is and the more people who collect in a particular area, the more reliable the information is.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Bruce,
What the EBAY system doesn't show, is the number of snipe bids that were never placed. I bid on 4 of the cards, but my snipe bid of 4500 at 3 sec was already beat by 2 people with bids of more than 9000. It's quite possible that 3-4 people had snipe bids in the 5000-8500 that we will also never see.
The market for super high graded T206's and low pop's maybe be thin, but it's more than 3-4 people, it's probably closer to 15-20. In the last few months I've sold several 8's offline to several different high grade collectors, who did not bid on these cards. Or if they did, there snipes were too low. Be well Brian

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Posted By: martindl

My first thought in watching the cards go one by one was "sheer registry madness". These are some great condition cards and I think I understand why some people find appeal in the registry, but I question the sanity of the differential in prices attained (value?) based largely on the population reports.

For the high grade pre-war collector I think the impications will be severe the minute a matching grade card comes to the market and that Pop 1 suddenly becomes a 1-of-2. You can never be assurred of having that highest graded card, so why pay such a premium for the current highest?

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Posted By: barrysloate

The highest grade lowest pop cards have the best shot at achieving record setting prices but also exhibit the greatest volatility. The same card in VG-EX will trade at a fairly consistent level and there will never be a shortage of buyers. I'm not saying there is a shortage of high end buyers, just that there is a greater likelihood of price swings.

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Posted By: jay behrens

How come the Dorkskin group didn't win any of these cards if they are such great cards to own? You spent money on a pedestrian Double Play card, but won't pony up for t206s?

To quote an old movie line, "Show me the money" cuz we certainly don't see you spending it on anything more impresive than Double Play cards.

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: joe brennan

If these 4 or 5 collectors obtain all the cards that they need to fill their sets the real price of these cards will be realized by the people that under bid at $4-5K. I think the prices are inflated by a select few. JMO

People said it was a million dollar wound. But the government must keep that money, cause I ain't never seen a penny of it.

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Posted By: peter ullman

while I agree with most opinions thus far...since the hobby is everexpanding and growing...despite the fact that a select few registry types are certainly driving prices into the stratosphere...this sect of the hobby should be growing to a degree as well...just like the rest of the hobby. so...yes...the prices are ridiculous...and volatile...but shouldn't they remain relatively stable. just playing devils advocate.

pete ullman

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Posted By: warshawlaw

stay the hell out of boxing cards!

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Posted By: Cobby33

Although I would like to (and do) believe that the market for Vintage, pre-War cards is hot, the utter madness of the PSA 8's and 9's is not an accurate representation, overall.

Only a handful of people collect these cards (or can afford them) and are clearly in a league of their own. Similar to other statistical analyses, the high figure(s) and low figure(s) are omitted in determining a true picture.

So...As encouraging (and discouragining, as I simply can't afford these cards) as this trend is, I don't think the orgy over multi-thousand dollar cards is (necessarily) representative of pre-War issues in general.

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Posted By: Anonymous

I wonder if the same bidders were bidding on the high grade E93 Group in mastro?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Cobby made a good point, and that is it is as if the people buying these cards are transacting as members of a completely different hobby. There is no intersection between what they purchase and what the typical collector buys.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Based on the data you presented, Bruce, a pop 1 PSA8 t206 purchase puts less than half of the purchase price at risk.

To evaluate this risk vs. a potential reward, we would have to be able to estimate the potential reward. Although this can not be forcasted accurately, Id estimate that reward (if the cards remain 1 of 1s) as 2x the purchase price.

As Jay points out, based on your option to not bid, you clearly are seeking a better situation, or you disagree with my analysis.

Please explain your assessment.


Edited to add:

Useful information which I do not have includes - % t206 population currently graded above PSA8.

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Posted By: Dan Kravitz

That was not necessary. Let's have a little respect for fellow collectors who post on this board. Every person on this board has a different style that should be respected. It would suck if we all collected the same thing. Come on!

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Posted By: Cobby33

What'd I miss??? See what happens when I step out for a moment!

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Posted By: jay behrens

Damn, what did I miss? Leon, shoot me a copy if it still exists. I need some good humor after a bad night of bowling.

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: leon

Whomever "lentel" is made a sharp jab at a board member and did it anonymously. Remember, if you want to jab, you better put your real name by it, or be well known by your net54 handle. Personal attacks should, for the most part, be kept off the board. We all know there have been heated arguments before but not anonymously..Each situation is considered when enforcing rules....as every situation is different...The rules are there for a reason...It's actually been fairly tame lately, which is good by me......kind regards

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Thanks Bruce,

There is no better investment than high grade vintage cards--the results of this seem to fly in the face of the assertion by some that high grade T206's are trimmed--or at least it shows that high-end collectors do not care if they are(unlikely). This represents another leg up for T206 high-grade prices.

I will consider any offers for my T206s(150 or so PSA 8s) on the PSA Set Registry that are in line with these prices.

Wonderful example of the economic benefits of grading cards.

Jim

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Posted By: jay behrens

--the results of this seem to fly in the face of the assertion by some that high grade T206's are trimmed--or at least it shows that high-end collectors do not care if they are(unlikely).

Jim, go ahead and keep your head buried in the sand. Just don't come crying to us or anyone else if the collecting world finally wises up and quits bidding on the obviously trimmed cards that reside in PSA holders. There are far to many knowledgable people on this board that know there trimmed cards in PSA 8 and higher holders to just dismiss these claims out of hand. Then again, you are the perfect example of buying the flip and not the card.

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: Anonymous

.

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Posted By: Joann

OK, you guys are starting to convince me. If the Spade (link to ebay auction in post above) turned up on ebay raw, with a seller I didn't know, I don't think I'd bid $15 on it. Really. That slanted top border would put me off it in two seconds.

I obviously can't say whether it is trimmed or not - I have no idea. But I know I wouldn't give it a second look raw. Hmmm. Maybe I should be rethinking that if they sell for $2K+ in a PSA 8 slab.

Joann

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Posted By: ItsStillOnlyGil

Certainly you realize that if you are unresponsive, that is what your inquirys will yield. To reiterate:

To evaluate this risk vs. a potential reward, we would have to be able to estimate the potential reward. Although this can not be forcasted accurately, Id estimate that reward (if the cards remain 1 of 1s) as 2x the purchase price.

Please identify your analysis.

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Posted By: Cobby33

Let's see...Perfectly-straight borders and 70/30 vertical centering???

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Jim,
If "there is no better investment than high grade vintage cards", why would you consider offers for you PSA 8 T206's that are in line with current prices? Why not hang onto them if, as you say, there is no better investment?

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Posted By: Bruce Babcock

My 2 cents worth:

*If I bought cards with consideration to risk-reward ratios I wouldn't be able to sleep at night. Cards to me are a hobby and one of the purposes of a hobby is to divert our attention from what keeps us awake at night!

*It is ironic that the prices some graded cards bring have created an incentive to trim cards and hope that they grade high when one stated purpose of the grading services was to protect the buyer from trimmed cards.

*The average price Bruce cites, $5317, is eye-popping. If I were to spend that much on a single card it wouldn't be a T206 common. No offense to those who do. These T206s are very rare in PSA 8 condition, but the cards themselves, condition aside, are not particularly rare. To put such a premium on what amounts to sharp corners, for my budget, would mean that I would have a very small collection.

*I try to keep it simple. I buy cards that I like. I bought some cards at the National which I had never seen before and might never see again. Did I overpay? Probably. Did I have fun? Yes. Do I enjoy the cards? Yes. Can I sleep at night? Yes.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- as I mentioned earlier on this thread, the way you collect and the way set registry people collect are for all practical purposes two completely different hobbies. You collect in an interesting manner looking for scarce or rare material and to a degree keep an eye on some type of reasonable budget. Set registry people have an awful lot of money and it is important for them to say they own the best. Whether it is an investment issue or simply a way of proving self worth, it's tough to say. But it's two different philosophies altogether. The only thing that connects them is the pursuit of something baseball.

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Posted By: Cobby33

Amen, brother.

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Posted By: cmoking

Set registry people are a very big population - perhaps more than a thousand people have sets registered at PSA. A very very very very very small percentage of those are involved in paying 5K+ for a PSA 8 T206 common. Perhaps only 5 people. Those 5 people are not typical of all set registry people - they are their own subset to themselves.

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Posted By: Bruce Babcock

Another good point. I have one set registered, almost by accident. I have ten Tango Eggs which were already PSA graded when I bought them individually so I went ahead and joined the registry. Ten cards is only half the set but this was enough to put me at number two. I haven't added a card in nine years.

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Posted By: barrysloate

There are many ways to look at this phenomenon, and let me posit one: If I am not mistaken, one of the PSA-8 on Bruce's list was Lattimore, and if memory is correct it sold for $7700. I looked at it on ebay and I will not deny that it is a very sharp looking card. Now let's say I too wanted a Lattimore but only had $50 to spend. I could probably get a nice VG-EX that would have no creases and a bit of softness at the four corners. Using this example, it would cost me an extra $7650 to get the same exact card with the corners squared. Call me naive, but gentlemen, you sure aren't getting very much for your money. I know, I know, some collectors will settle for nothing less than best...but other than the fact that there will be some other guy who will probably pay more for it six months down the road because he too won't settle for anything less than the best, are you really getting your money's worth? I won't even go into the fact that Lattimore is among the most boring players in the T206 set.

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Posted By: Steve M.

residing in SGC "A" holders. Beautiful cards, including a Johnson Pitching, McGraw Finger in Air, Lundgren Chicago and Powers. All appear right, maybe a teeny bit short? Do not appear trimmed. What say I crack them out and submit to PSA and let's see. Anyone want to take bets on results?

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Posted By: cmoking

I may be intersted in gambling. What terms are you looking for?

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Posted By: Steve M.

get its initial fee submission package. Will submit 10. Over-under is 4. I'll let you pick. I win, you pay grading fees. You win, I'll buy your book.

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Posted By: cmoking

That's it? I thought this was for real money.

I'll take Under 4 (out of 10 or 11 cards) are graded with a numerical grade.

Here's what I want from you:
- send me scans of the cards in the SGC Authentic holders
- once you have it submitted, give me the PSA submission number and your zip code so I can track along with you on PSA's site
- tell me how much your total grading fees + shipping fees are ahead of time

my email is cmoking@yahoo.com

If more than 4 grade, I'll happily pay for your grading fees.

Win or lose, I'd be happy to send you a copy of my book.

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Posted By: JimB

Are the "set registry people" the handful of big names in the hobby with collections worth many millions or the majority of people on the registry with much more humble collections?

I think there is a tendancy to draw large conclusions about broad and diverse groups of collectors. More often than not the broad strokes and generalizations do not tend to be accurate when applied to individuals.

I have a high-grade E93 set on the registry which I mostly put together before the caramel craze of the past few years. I don't consider myself a "set registry person" but many here may think of me that way by virtue of putting one set on the registry. I did it mostly because it has been a great way to hear from other caramel collectors and to get wind of available cards that would fill holes in my set. The vast majority of my collection is not high grade like that set.

JimB

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Posted By: Steve M.

and a 4 is a push. I'm going out tonight but will email you the scans tomorrow. Terms acceptable.

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Posted By: cmoking

Excellent. This will be fun. I will leave it up to you whether you want the results to be public. I won't say anything either way.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Steve and King- that's a really funny bet you two guys have going. But watch out for King- he's a professional!

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Posted By: Steve M.

I can hold my own. (jacklitsch a/k/a 2005XKR)

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- I agree that it is not a good policy to stereotype any group, even the set registry crowd, but would it be fair to categorize the people who spend several thousand dollars on each T206 common as very wealthy? Some may be wealthier than others, but can we say all of them have deep pockets?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Maybe I should lay a bet on who will win your bet. Are there odds on each of you?

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Posted By: Steve M.

underdog. 4 to 1 but it will be fun to see. The cards residing in SGC "A"'s don't do much for me anyway.

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Posted By: cmoking

You may be an underdog - but you stand to lose nothing! A complete free-roll...great bet for you. So what do I get out of it? Some interesting info for myself. That's worth it for me. Looking forward to it.

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Posted By: Steve M.

it will be an interesting experiment one way or the other. I'm out of here, wife is screaming at me, so I'll get those scans out tomorrow.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I want in on this action. I say less than four of them come back graded, and I'll wager a vanilla milkshake (that's my standard bet, I never wager more than I can afford).

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Posted By: JimB

Barry,
Sure, somebody who spends thousands of dollars on T206 common has deep pockets. But most people on this board have discretionary income that they spend on cards, whether that be $30/month or $30,000/month. We can judge either by saying that it would be a lot better to give that money to charity. But who are we to judge the taste of different collectors? I would love to have a PSA 8 T206 set. It probably won't happen, but not for lack of desire.
JimB

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Posted By: barrysloate

I just find it fascinating that people are willing to pay multi-thousands of dollars for T206 commons. I just can't fathom why they do it. Doesn't make it wrong, just leaves me baffled.

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Posted By: jay behrens

No one is saying that every trimmed card submitted to PSA get slabbed with a number. What we are pointing out is that far too many trimmed cards ARE getting slabbed. I don't card what volume of business you are doing, if your business is to detect cards, then none should be getting through. We shouldn't be seeing the large number of questionable cards that we do in high grade PSA holders.

And yes, we are aware of size variations in the cards, but don't you find it curious that it's only the short cards that survive in high grade? Take a look at population of t206s in general. There should be a roughly equal number of short and long cards, since cutting a card short means making another card long. Yet if you look at all the t206s out there, oversized t206s are few and far between, yet you see an inordinate number of short cards. A lot this can be traced back to when Jim Copeland started paying huge money for NM t206s. I saw many collectors and dealers running around shows looking for oversized t206s they could trim down and hopefully pass off on Copeland or one of his buyers.

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Jay,

I think you are the one that's crying--I have no reason to cry--my psa 8s have probably risen 20-fold on average since I bought them.

Face it, the trend of the industry is graded cards--my point is if in fact some of the T206s are trimmed and they got in PSA holders(which is undoubtedly true), the market does not seem to care.

Educate yourself and adapt.

Barry and others,

There are a few set registry people who have thrown tremendous amounts of money into high-grade vintage cards. Why not? It has been a tremendous investment. Why not build the worlds greatest set of what many feel is the greatest set ever made? To do that you are going to have to pay $6-$10,000 for pop 1 psa 8 commmons. For someone who is worth what these guys undoubtedly are that is not a big investment.

Jim

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Posted By: Elliot

I would also point out that if Steve submitted each if those 10 cards 25 times and just once got one PSA 8 he would be ahead of the game financially. I've got to believe that sooner or later, if he kept resubmitting most of his 10 or 11 would get a numerical grade. I'm sure the Spade and Tannehill didn't get an 8 the first time around, but sooner or later.....