So, who do you think the NL committee will elect?

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Posted By: Chad

I really really really hope Pete Hill is. Besides him, Willard Brown, Dick Redding, Biz Mackey, Chet Brewer, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Nip Winters, Alejandro Oms, Tetelo Vargas, Bingo DeMoss, Bruce Petway, Jud Wilson, John Beckwith, Dick Lundy and others I know I'm forgetting are deserving.

--Chad

Thanks for the topic Kenny!

--Chad

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

I really don't know that much about how the Committee is going to proceed. I know that there are supposedly going to be two groups -- those who played before the organized Negro Leagues came into existence (Hill, Petway, Santop, etc.), and those from the organized leagues. I also know that a candidate must receive the standard 75% of the votes. What I don't know is whether this is a one-shot deal or whether the Committee is going to meet on some periodic basis, like the Veteran's Committee, to make their picks.

Currently, I'd guess that Suttles, Mackey, Torriente and Pete Hill have the best shot in their respective categories. I've always been a Lundy fan, so I hope he receives serious consideration. Raymond Brown is probably going to be looked at pretty hard too. Since I have cards of all of the above except Suttles and Hill, I'm pulling for all of them to get admitted. That's about the only way I will ever be able to get even or pull ahead of Paul in the HOF collection derby

Kenny

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Posted By: Chad

I hope Alejandro Oms and Quincy Trouppe get in!

My guess is that Pete Hill and Torriente get in, and i can't really argue with that.

--Chad

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Posted By: jay behrens

I'm surprised it took this long for someone on this board to mention something about it. I am sure anyone that did know about this has been quietly trying to buy cards of any likely suspects before word really got out and prices start really getting out of hand.

Here's a great article from The Onion about a year ago

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/30507>

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: Paul

You guys just want me to go bankrupt, rooting for people like Pete Hill to get in. And rooting for so many to get in. Stop it already. Put in 10 more Turkey Stearns (no cards) or 20 more Joe Williams (no cards), but no more Hilton Smiths.

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

There are some pretty nice photos of Stearnes, Williams, et al.

Kenny

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Posted By: Paul

Photos are great, but I collect cards. If someone offered reprint photos of the Negro Leaguers who have no cards, I'd probably buy them.

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Posted By: Matt Goebel

I'm pulling for Oliver Marcelle.

But if I have to be honest, the following guys deserve to go in first and are all bona fide HOFers in my book:

Pete Hill
Cristobal Torriente
Biz Mackey
Jud Wilson
Dick Lundy
Dick Redding
Willard Brown

Matt

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Posted By: Ryan Christoff

Matt,

How did Dick Lundy get on that list? Don't you mean Chet Brewer?

Mule Suttles has a shot, too. What about Santop? Certainly deserving. Frank Grant? George Stovey? Bud Fowler?

It's going to depend on what they do with the pre-1920's players who won't have as complete a statistical record as the later players. I think they should break it up into pre-1920's (before the "official" Negro Leagues) and 1920's on. Here are my votes if they broke it up that way:

Pre-1920's:

Pete Hill
Dick Redding
Frank Grant
George Stovey
Louis Santop

On the bubble: Grant "Home Run" Johnson, Bud Fowler


1920's on:

Biz Mackey
Cristobal Torriente
Mule Suttles
Jud Wilson
Willard Brown
John Beckwith
Raymond Brown
Chet Brewer

On the bubble: Oliver Marcelle, Dick Lundy

Who knows how they'll actually do it. It's all still pretty vague. First, a committee selects who gets on the ballot. Then another committee votes. 75% of the votes means your in. Torriente and Mackey seem like the best bets. I really can't see how they don't get in. Pete Hill is absolutely in that class, but might have played too early to be appreciated. Plus, Pete Hill will ruin everyone's HOF rookie card collection if he gets in.

Here's a question: Since there is only one known example of Pete Hill's "rookie" card, what is that worth when/if he gets into the HOF?

-Ryan

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Posted By: Chad

In all seriousness, I think that Pete Hill card moves easily into 6 figures and, in my mind, become THE premier Negro League card and one of the top 5 cards period, if he makes the Hall. Of course, I already think that Pete Hill card is amazing. If I could have just one card, that might be it, official stamp of approval by the Hall or not.

--Chad

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Posted By: Matt Goebel

Ryan,

How could I forget Suttles?!?

I don't think that Brewer gets in until you own every example of his card in existance.

My list was never meant to be complete, it was just supposed to be guys that i thought would go in ahead of the Ghost. You left off Jose DLC Mendez, Burnis WB Wright and Spot Poles!

Is this the Pete Hill card that you guys are talking about?

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Posted By: Chad

Sigh....


--Chad

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/history/2005/050726.htm

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Posted By: Paul

If Pete Hill's card is worth 6 figures, what's my Frank Selee worth??????

I hate to make more work for other, but I was hoping Ryan or Matt would be so kind as to let us know what sets the players they mentioned have appeared in.

Also, the Hall of Fame website is very clear that the committee will not be limited to players. Are there any executives, umpires or others that have a legitimate chance of getting in?

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

Paul,

Here are the cards of the various candidates who were discussed, so far as I'm aware:

Pete Hill - Cabanas, Punch (allegedly)
Biz Mackey - Aguilitas Segundas
Crisotbal Torriente - Billiken, Nacionales, Tomsa Gutierrez (two different cards), Segundas
Willard Brown - 48/49 Toleteros, 49/50 Toleteros, 50-51 Toleteros, 50/51 Denia, 50's Dominican
Raymond Brown - 45/46 Caramelo Deportivo, 50/51 Denia
Chet Brewer - 49/50 Toleteros
Oliver Marcelle - Billiken, Tomas Gutierrez, Mallorquina
Dick Lundy - Aguilitas Segundas
Grant Johnson - Punch (allegedly), perhaps a Cabanas
Jose Mendez - Punch, Billiken, Nacionales, Segundas, Tomas Gutierrez, perhaps a Cabanas
Nip Winters - Billiken
Oms - Billiken, Aguilitas Artisticas, Aguilitas Segundas, Nacionales, Tomas Gutierrez
Tetelo Vargas (I don't think he has much of a shot) - all of the Toleteros issues
Bruce Petway - Cabanas, Punch (allegedly)

When I say allegedly, that only means that the Punch set is so rare that I've seen scans of two, including Mendez, have never seen one in person, and am told the others actually exist but cannot verify that from independent knowledge.

I think the Pete Hill card is probably worth more than the Selee simply because he was a player, not a manager. Insofar as NL excecutive/manager/owner types are concerned, I think J.L. Wilkinson (Monarchs owner), Effa Manley, Dave Malarcher and C.L. Taylor have some chance, albeit long. None of them have cards so far as I know. I have something, not a photo, not a card, (maybe a premium? - not sure) of Bill Wright. He doesn't have a card that I'm aware of. Neither do the rest of the candidates discussed, although there is a RPPC of Jud Wilson (and of Willie Wells for that matter). There are a few others with cards who have an outside shot. However, no one else with a card I know of springs to mind as having anything close to a good chance of election.

This was off the top of my head so I'm probably missing some cards. I think its pretty close to complete though. Hope it helps.

Kenny

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Posted By: Paul

Kenny, thank you. That was more than helpful.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Thought this would be of interest to Negro League fans. This coppied from the SABRl-list

Emilio "Millito" Navarro,who played for the Cuban Stars (East) in 1928 and 1929 as an infielder will be celebrating his 100th birthday on September 26th. Anyone wanting to send him congratulations or best wishes may do so by writing him at:

Emilio Navarro
Torres St, #97
Ponce, PR 00731



My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: Andy Baran

I can't believe that none of you guys mentioned Sol White as a possibility.

Kenny, there is definitely a Punch card of Pete Hill. I've seen a scan of it.

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

Past selections have been so ridiculous - all they need to do is involve historians of the early professional Negro teams to avoid stupid additions/omissions.

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

Andy, you are right. I completely forgot Sol White. I would imagine that he has a pretty good shot as a manager/executive. Also, if you happen to have a scan of the Punch Pete Hill or know where I may find it, I'd love to see it.

Scott, the list of people on the selection committee this time around is pretty impressive. My feeling is that they'll do a good job.

Kenny

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

While I think that this is indeed an appropriate course of action for the HOF to take...

a cynical part of me wonders if they only did it because there are ZERO major leaguers who will probably get voted in by the BBWA in 2006. Look at the list of newly eligible players -- it's pathetic.

SO... I can't imagine Cooperstown wanting to let an entire year go by without ANYONE getting inducted to bring the hoardes of people to the city for tourism dollars...

so I am concerned that the "watering down" of the HOF may continue from here on.

I am NOT saying that whoever gets elected THIS time would be considered "watered down"... but what if this is just a sign of things to come??

What is the HOF going to do in 2011 if there are no eligible players worth induction??

Will they form a "special committee" to induct members of the MINOR Leagues into the HOF? Or a special committee to induct "Veterans who Served" into the HOF?

I sure hope not.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Isn't Ripken eligible for the HOF this year?

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

I think baseball and Cooperstown both have to be worried when no one is elected to the HOF. Like Hal said, elections = money, whereas no elections = no money. That is why I suspect the current Veteran's Committee is likely to be revamped again in a few years. The fact that it has made precisely zero selections since being reconstituted can't make those who depend on selections to bring in the bucks very happy.

That being said, IMO, there are a number of NL HOF candidates who are at least deserving of a long look. Arguably, the same can't be said for the vets.

The primary reason they took the NL selections from the Veteran's Committee and set up a special committee was because the Veteran's Committee was completely clueless about the Negro Leagues -- even more clueless than they were about the major league veterans they were supposed to be considering (I'm talking about the old veteran's committee, not the new one, although I think the new one is nearly as clueless). The special NL committee was also contemplated when they changed the composition of the Veteran's Committee. The primary reason it didn't begin to work right away was because its members were busy trying to accumulate NL statistical data in order to make more informed choices. With their new statistical data, I am hopeful that the committee won't screw it up.

There will always be arguments about who should be in, who should be out, and who has "watered down" the HOF. Those are the types of arguments that probably can't be settled except by personal opinions about how or where the cut-off for induction should be formulated. I don't see a huge problem with setting up a committee tasked with selecting deserving NLers because their situation is, in many respects, unique. Nor do I think that the formulation of a special NL Committee is necessarily going to result in the formulation of more special committees. I also think that in most years, there will be a recently retired/HOF eligible player for the electors to pick. That should generally suffice.

Kenny Cole

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Posted By: Chad

I think the opposite is true, that there is in fact a movement NOT to elect members through the Veteran's Committee which is why it was recreated in the form it is now. These special Negro league elections have less to do with drumming up interest--who besides us uber geeks will care if Pete Hill is elected, much less travel to Cooperstown for the ceremony or to see the plaque--than it is to make the Hall of Fame historically more accurate. We can't get rid of the Jim Bottomley's and Jesse Barnes', unfortunately. Including guys like Pete Hill and Biz Mackey will actually raise the average caliber of hall of famer, as these guys were unconditionally great players. So I don't think Buck O'Neill or Dobie Moore is going to be elected in 2025 just to have a ceremony. What I do think you're going to see is the induction of more foreign stars like Perucho Cepeda and Sadahara Oh, guys who are Innner-Inner Circle hall of famers in their own countries despite not having played in the U.S. And, honestly, it's about freaking time. It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the Provincial Hall of Fame of the USA. IMHO, of course. In the long view, these dead guys aren't going to get any glory from this, but they were great no matter what the HOF says.

--Chad

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Posted By: Nick

The BBWAA has returning members of the ballot to vote for, including 4 people who received 50% or more of the vote last year (traditionally, almost everyone who has broken 50% has eventually been elected) - Bruce Sutter, Jim Rice, Rich Gossage, and Andre Dawson. Sutter, who had 2/3 of the vote last year, is almost a sure bet for induction this time around.

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Posted By: tbob

If Bruce Sutter is in the Hall and Bert Blyleven isn't, the Hall is a joke...

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Sutter does NOT belong.

He averaged about 6.5 losses a season as a RELIEF pitcher...

he has a career winning percentage below 50%...

and he only played for about 10 years.

Yes, he has 300 saves...

but that is NOT the same as 300 wins.

For a starter, 20 wins is a great season.

For a reliever, 40 saves is a great season.



Thus, a reliever should need about 600 saves to make the HOF.

I don't want to see Sutter or Gossage or Smith.

Let's wait and see how many saves Mariano Rivera ends up with before we start inducting pure relievers.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Rivera already has 60+ more saves than Sutter...

and will rack up a ton more over the next few years.

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Posted By: Nick

Everybody can name players who shouldn't be in the HOF, but are, or sho should be, but are not. That's not the point. An objective view of the BBWAA's history indicates that people reaching 50% of the vote, almost without exception, do get elected, and from 2/3 of the vote, election is almost automatic the next year.

BTW, for much of Sutter's career, the single-season save record was 38, so that makes 40 a little high as a cutoff for a good year in the late '70s and early '80s.

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Posted By: jay behrens

I don't understand what people have against Lee Smith. He holds one of the major career records. Plenty of people have started off on a great pace to break the record, but cannot hold up to the rigors of closing every day for 10 plus years. At the end of this year, Trevor Hoffman will be 38 and still be more than a full season away from Smith. Rivera will be 35 and still 2.5 years away from Smith. This based on both of the guys getting 40 saves each year. This pace seem unlikely since the only player get 40 or more saves at age 37 or older is Eckersley. Hoffman can also do it if he gets 3 more saves this year. The most saves over the age of 37 is 36 saves by Eckersley. So the projected time for Hoffman and Rivera to pass Smith is generous based on historical data.

No matter how you look at it, Smith belongs.

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Actually, I don't have anything against Lee Smith...

and I think that his benchmark of 478 saves should set the standard by which future HOF closers are measured.

BUT...

my problem is that the voters are clearly thinking that Sutter and Gossage and perhaps even a few other closers are more worthy of induction and "must" be inducted before someone like Lee Smith.



I don't think Sutter and Gossage belong... so I want them to fail and THEN maybe Lee Smith will have a fair shot later on.

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

Maybe someone on the board could create a ballot for a "Net 54 revised HOF" - ballot would include all current HOF'ers, plus an added list created by board poll. Each board member gets to submit one ballot - anyone who makes 75% of the ballots is in. I would be curious to see the results of such a HOF, revised by us, the informed baseball historians (for the most part). We could even have an anual vote to add more members.

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

Scott,

I don't have a problem with that. However, there is already something similar out there. Check out http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/hom_discussion/the_baseball_hall_of_merits_important_links. The site is pretty heavy on sabermetrics and the discussions are sometimes a little difficult to follow due to all of the formulaic stuff they use. However, the basic story is that they are debating over and retroactively electing players from the majorm, pre-major and negro leagues to their "Hall of Merit" as they become eligible. Players become "eligible" five years after their "retirement" and their eligibility never ends. The "elections" date back to 1898. I found some of the debates over who belongs/doesn't belong and why/why not pretty interesting to read.

Kenny

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

Ryan sent me that link earlier and I've been in their site for about 30 minutes, trying to figure it out. Very cool!

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Posted By: Chad

Check out the threads about Bobby Estalella and Leon Day. They already have 21 NLers elected to their Hall and that's without guys like Day and Cool Papa.

--Chad