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warshawis millions of iterations. Players rely on luck; casinos rely on math. Over the millions of plays the casinos win.
I visit Las Vegas annually (at least) and study all of the games exhaustively in my spare time. Some are unbeatable because they rely on large scale repetitions to grind out results. Slot machine paybacks, for example, are calculated based on 1 million plays. For that reason, saying that a machine is "loose" or is "due" is utter crap as is any other slots betting strategy; you simply cannot strategize over a million repetition betting cycle. If a player gets lucky, however, the casino will lose on that player, fueling the legend and boosting sales.
Some games have odds that are dependent on prior plays. Blackjack dealt face up is the classic. If the player knows the game and can read a tip in the odds (as in card counting( they can clean up. The casinos have safeguards to prevent this from happening; they kick your ass out if they think you are counting.
Craps is a pure luck game; the odds of any event are precisely the same with each roll because each roll resets the scenario. That is why you can play a hedge in craps by betting pass and no pass at the same time and stacking up the odds on no pass when the point is 4 or 10 (2x as likely to crap out as make that point). If the casino allows large odds on bets you can really rake it in just with that play, which is why the strip casinos limit odds to 5x or 10x. Find an off-strip casino that allows 100x odds and try it, then watch how quickly they call over the pit boss to counter you. The other way to do this is to team up with someone and bet their opposite with whoever is no pass stacking up the bet on 4 and 10. The casinos combat players who think in this game by paying off at reduced rates relative to actual odds of events happening (for example, a 12 happens only 1/36 of the time but pays only 30:1 on a straight bet, which gives the casino a big edge over time if you are stupid enough to place that bet).
Roulette is a pure luck game too. Unfortunately, the US version has an extra green slot (00) which dramatically shifts the odds for the house from bad to horrible.
Poker is a hybrid game. The odds change with each deal because the deck composition shifts but since you don't see all of the other players' cards you cannot count in absolute terms as you can in face-up black jack. The more cards you actually see (as In Texas Hold 'Em), the more a really schooled player to make a very good guess as to which cards the others hold. Also remember that Poker is not a you versus the casino game--the casino rakes a commission from the winnings in normal card rooms--so the casinos do not have the same desire to get rid of skill players as they do in blackjack.
06-12-2005, 12:44 PM
Cobb w/ checklist on back?
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