Future collecting generations

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Posted By: Chris 

What does everyone think the future of vintage collectors will be? I wonder if kids today and their kids and their kid's kids will collect pre war items that we all enjoy. Seems like most kids today are more interested in other things: video games, skating, other type of non sports cards and the ones that are interested in sports cards all like the chrome cards and X-Fractors and stuff like that. I have a 12 year old son who is the exception to the rule. Like me, he loves the old stuff and the history it represents. There aren't many like him out there though. When I go to shows and go to a table that has new stuff I just pass it like it was a table with garbage on it, but the kids do the same with the old stuff.
Also, do you think values will continue to rise over the years as the kids grow older? The supply will obviously decrease but I think the demand will decrease also. Any thoughts?

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Posted By: steve k

Chris - Interesting post. I get to ponder this myself every now and then. In the "short term" the prospects for increases in baseball card prices are excellent - no great prediction there. No one of course can accurately predict the long term future but I believe that pre-1970 baseball cards will continue to be popular and grow in value. I firmly believe that pre-WW2 cards will percentage-wise increase the most.

I had both a decent size coin collection and baseball card collection as a kid in the 1960s. Ask anyone back then which would be by far the best investment and most valuable one day and everyone would have said the coin collection. Turned out to be just the opposite. My family and friends know that I am a "collector" and have always asked me what items will be valuable some day that aren't really worth anything now - along the lines of baseball cards that sold for a penny, now selling for many thousands of dollars. I remember telling everybody back in the 1980s that "fast food" wrappers, cups, etc., from McDonalds, etc., might be valuable someday. Figuring since everybody throws these things away, then maybe someday they could be scarce collectables. Seemed like a good idea at the time - LOL. I haven't seen where any of this "fast food" stuff is valuable. So who knows what will be actively collected and valuable in the future which isn't of much value today? But it is interesting to try to predict.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Well, I'm 23 so probably about as close to that generation as there is on this board.

Affordability killed the hobby for many kids - watching the business at my local card shop fade away over 10 years until it closed two years ago was quite an eye opener. In 1988 and 89 when I started collecting, I could go down to the shop and buy a pack of Donruss or Topps for 50 cents, now kids are lucky to be able to find a pack for $2. This is a big problem because the seeds of vintage collecting are planted by the new cards - any kid that is going to become a vintage collector will most likely start with the new stuff. I would trace the affordability issue straight back to Upper Deck's doorstep, but other may have different opinions.

Respect for history in general seems to be going downhill though - how else could we account for companies cutting up relics like Sam Crawford or Jimmie Foxx bats into thousands on little slivers? Every time I even think of buying any of the new issues, I think of that and stop, because I refuse to support any company that would do something like that.

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Posted By: Ben

As a younger member of the board, I too am optimistic about the future of the hobby, particularily our little "niche" of it. OF course there will be some rises and dips in the market here and there, as with any market (19th century and caramel card pricing is a good recent indicator of this). But for the most part, I think that prewar card values have a strong base that will hold steady (at very least) for years to come.

I do think the future of the prewar market depends on the efforts we Net 54 members make today. Many network 54ers already contribute to this future on a daily basis, and this is a big reason for my optimism. Whether it be writing an article for VCBC, making informative posts on this forum, making ties with younger collectors via trades and sales, selling a nice card at a great price to a newbie to turn him on to the old stuff, ect etc...all these sorts of things help ensure that the next generation of 20-somethings will have a strong presence in the hobby for years to come.

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Posted By: Judge Dred

There have been some good points made regarding the future generation of collectors.

Very interesting thought about how the price of packs could influence whether a kid wants to be a collector or not. Then there are those video games and other choices kids have. This point indicates that the hobby needs a "feeder system" to bring new collectors to the advance stage of collecting. What makes a person take the leap? Who will the next generation of hobbyist include? It would be interesting to see a demographic study done on "new" and "old" collectors. What is the socio-economic, age and racial background of all collectors. It would be interesting to see such a breakdown.

I started collecting cardboard when I was about 12 or 13. By the time I was 16 I started collecting vintage material. I enjoyed the "new stuff" (Topps was about the only choice back then - I hope I didn't date myself) but I also wasn't absorbed in trying to get the "hot" insert or "rookie" cards. Back then nobody really placed a premium value on "first year" cards. I wasn't influenced by anyone. The evolution of the collecting process took its own course on me. I just happened to like TheOldStuff.

I figure that if the card hobby follows coin collecting then it was something that was self-induced. Basically the hobby placed itself into a self destruct mode a while back. I suppose we can thank Upper Deck, Donruss, Fleer, Topps and the rest for starting the downward spiral. Perhaps this will clear out all of the part time hobbyist that only collected because they thought that a rookie card or insert would always hold value. I believe we have something called supply/demand that typically determines values in a free market society. Let me see - Joe Schmuck paid $100 a piece for ungraded Griffey rookes a while back. Now they can't give the stuff away for $30 a card. Do I think Joe Schmuck will be a little disillusioned and perhaps say the heck with the hobby before ever exploring what the hobby is really about? You bet there are a lot of Joe Schmucks out there.

My guess is that the true vintage collectors will be a bit older than the average collector and I would venture to guess that the true vintage collector (TVC) is probably about had it with the price of cards these days. The only problem is that the TVC needs a "fix" now and then and will remain loyal to the hobby just out of the love for the cardboard. Then there are the working "professional class" collectors (doctors, lawyers, high salaried individuals) that bought into the hobby because they like it and also as an investment and possible hedge on inflation (the stock market still isn't where it was 4 years ago).

The next question is where will the next generation come from? With housing costs and the general cost of living reaching incredible highs in a lot of metro areas there might be fewer dollars to put into this hobby by the "next generation" of collectors.

Personally, I don't care - if the hobby goes to hell in a hand basket I will then be able to get more of my favorite vintage material at reasonable prices. For what it's worth, I'm not in this for the "investment" aspect, I'm in this because I enjoy those little pieces of cardboard. Let's keep this in perspective, unless you're a dealer you probably don't have a desire to sell off a collection. What you accumulate over the years is what probably brings enjoyment to you. It's nice to pull a card out of a box and look at it. From Anson to Cobb to Cravath to O'Doul to Ott to Williams to Mantle and Mays and so on. It's just fun to pull one out of the collection to look at the thing. Perhaps it's how you attained the card that you remember, maybe it's remembering the statistics of the player and wondering why he's not in the HOF and maybe, just maybe because you like the pose on the card or the way it looks.

I don't want to see the hobby die but on the other hand a correction in the proverbial "market" would be nice. We'll see what happens in the next decade. Prices are at an all time high and expendable cash is a concern for a lot of hobbyist these days. I'm a lousy economist and I wont try and predict what will happen to the card market because I don't have enough information to make that decision. I suppose we could all speculate a bit and see what happens.

Sorry for the long entry - I could go on but I'll end it here...

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Posted By: Julie Vognar

You can't leave a collection to a friend of your son, or even a friend of yours--not when you have children and grandchildren. "Twouldn't be fittin'." There are plenty of young and older adults who are still interested in vintage baseball stuff, but the kids--I just don't see kids buying baseball cards much anymore. They love all those other game cards. And the ones who are interested just want the new stuff.

It wasn't more than 15 years ago I saw a teenager huddled in a corner at a show, having a private moment with his new Willie Mays rookie. It doesn't really happen anymore. Not even with Willie Mays! Let alone Kelly and Ewing.

Hate to be pessimistic, but I'm afraid when these kids grow up, the vintage stuff will creep back into private collections, since no one around wants to pay a decent price for it....

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Posted By: jay behrens

As long as basbeall remains popular in this country, vintage card collecting will always be strong. When slips to second class status, then it will be in trouble.

There is a real need for a feeder system, as was pointed out. Kids can no longer pick up a pack of cards cheap. It's all refractor this, insert that, and mom and dad aren't gonna drop $3 plus on something like that.

You need that insitial seed, but the tru vintage collectors generally don't emerge until they hit their 30s when they have settle into a career and family. Age also helps you appreciate history more.

Someone mentioned that they get asked what is goning to be the next hot collectible. I've done pretty good at doing this. I hit the action figure market before it took off. I also had a nice collection of board games before that market did a brief boom. And yes, there is a market for early fast food toys and other fast food related items. Even old 7-11 Slurpee cups saw a huge price jump just a few years ago. The key is to look for something that everyone knows about or bought, but tended to throw away. Also look at what was popular with kids 20 years ago. That's a good indicator of what 30somethings are goning to be chasingto try and recapture their childhood. And it won't be the Pokemon and Power Ranger cards and toys, but the more disposable stuff from those shows that people threw away but that you still loved as a kid.

Now if I told what I was hoarding now, I would have to kill you

Jay

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Posted By: Chuck Ross

When I was growing up (late 60's, early 70's) I was completely consumed by baseball. I knew the starting lineup of every team (as my friends and I emulated them in endless baseball and wiffle ball games), I read the Sporting News every week to see which minor league prospects I could expect to see in the next year or two and think about how they would impact their major league teams. I knew the outcome of every World Series since 1903, Hall of Famers batting averages, lists of perfect games and unassisted triple plays, who Merkle and Hoss Radbourne were, who had each hit in the A's rally against the Cubs in '29...you get the picture. But over time something happened and not just the natural change in interests that occur as one gets older. I maintained some interest through the 80's but the intensity was gone...as the 90's came I began to have even less interest in the game. A lot of changes in the game went into my personal feelings. Mainly free agency, I suppose. I certainly do not begrudge the players their cut of the proceeds, but I really miss the days when Al Kaline was a Tiger and Lou Brock a Cardinal. I didn't have to get reoriented every year as to who was where. I still watch the game out of the corner of my eye and catch most of the post-season, but it's certainly not the same.

I have kids aged 11 and 14 and they have zero interest in baseball and I don't know any of their friends who do. They don't play pickup games, they don't play Strato-matic, etc. Now I'm sure everyone on this board can list kids who are exceptions to this, but in general I just don't see the same overpowering love for the game that many kids had when I was younger. Kids of my generation didn't collect with the idea of investment, but because they loved the game and the players. I have no idea how these changes will play out in the baseball card collecting hobby, but I do know that when the majority of folks buying a class of collectibles don't really love them then the fun is over and its time for the investment counselors to take over.

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Posted By: honus3415

I too was consumed by the game of baseball in the 60's. I would cut out every boxscore relating to the Tigers and keep track of every statistic which could pull from those numbers. I knew the daily BA of every Tiger player from Gates Brown to Al Kaline. Remember or maybe you'll have to imagine a world with was no SportsCenter. I still have every newspaper boxscore from the 1968 season and a notebook keeping track of every Tiger statistic. My father would listen to the games at night after work on WJR despite the fact we lived hundreds of miles from Detroit. Often the static was so bad that I would wonder how he could tell what was happening, but he never missed a second of the broadcast.

So what happened??

Free Agency....suddenly the game started to be played for the almighty dollar and no longer for the love of the game. Our loyal stars became not-so-loyal pawns in the financial game we refer to as baseball.

I remember when the Tigers wanted to make Al Kaline their first $100,000 a year player, it was towards the end of his career. He didn't want it because he didn't think he deserved it. Think of it today.....somebody thinking they are worth less than what somebody is willing to pay them!!!! Never happen, it's the world today.

Well for the most part that is what has happened in today's hobby, the almighty dollar has replaced the PURITY of collecting. Few transactions are made because we replace things of our past, the majority of transactions involve the hope of a monetary gain either the buyer or seller can foresee. We seek things because they have value, we avoid things because they are worthless.

The hobby will never return to the past, just as players will never play for the PURE "love of the game" in professional sports again. Sure the games will still be played but forever missing will be the love and passion of a Ty Cobb or 1960's Pete Rose.

The passion slips away with each one of us.......hold onto those memories, there are no replays.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

My kid, my nephews, all of the little ones, love baseball. We take them to the game all the time. I give them cards as gifts all the time. A few weeks ago, I pulled out a beautiful Cobb card and showed my lefty daughter why I split her grip on the bat (At 5 years old, she's driving the ball off live pitching with underspin and loft; I can't wait to show her Teddy Ballgame hitting. Scholarship, here we come!!!). She may not play it after grade school, but she will know it in her heart and if she wants it, she can have my collection when I die. THAT'S the feeder system for young collectors, US.

There are cheap new cards out there, not just $2 a box. The basic Topps 2004 product was 10 packs for ten bucks at Target; I got my nephew 2 boxes for his birthday. He had a blast. I see lots of kids at shows just having fun. The scholarship, the passion, that comes into play later on. I was a card nut from 8-15, totally out of it from 15-21, and back into it ever since.

The hobby isn't experiencing the growth it had earlier; it can't. No business can expand like that forever. Collecting has matured.

The investment element is here to stay, like it or not. Sure, there are market ups and downs with any commodity, but the classics keep going. Card collecting has been on an upward surge since the 1930's. It is unrealistic to think it will tank the way many collectibles of the day have crashed. Besides, I'd rather lose my shirt on Cobb cards than on Enron shares. The cards are so much prettier.

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Posted By: warshaw;aw

doh!

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Posted By: Chris

A lot of great points. I guess more than anything I worry about the importance of the history of the game being lost on people. it kills me too to see a Ruth jersey cut up just so some guy who is addicted to busting packs in search of the great card can sell it on Ebay. I could care less about the monetary value in the long run, although I would not be thrilled to see stuff go down drastically considering what I have spent on things. Regardless I will always collect. I still love buying a T card of someone and then doing research on that person. There are so many players listed as commons that had asignificant role in baseball history. That is what I love. As someone pointed out also, your love of history grows as you grow older so hopefully that will happen with future generations. I started collecting just for fun in 1981 and soon after learned cards had value. That kept me interested until cards started being massed produced and then I lost interest in 1987. By 1992 I realized I just loved to collect the stuff so started back. I think it would kill me to part with some items in my collection and I'm not just talking about Cobb, Young and Matthewson. Someday I will leave it to my son and I hope he is still actively collecting and can continue to enjoy it as I have. I have passed on my love for the history of the game to him and hopefully he will do the same. There aren't many 12 year olds who know who Fred Merkle or Hal Chase is. I would say this to board members, take the time at a show to tell a youngster a story, tell them about Ed Reulbach pitching two shutouts in both ends a f a double header in late September to help the Cubs win the pennant. Tell them how Deacon Phillippe won the very first world series game. Tell them a story that might help them appreciate the history of it all.

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Posted By: Kevin Cummings

My take on the vintage card market is that it is like single malt scotch - it is an acquired taste. I'm sure a good portion of us (at least judging by some of the posts on the board) didn't immediately start in the vintage card area, but rather drifted into it later.

Speaking for myself, the older cards became more attractive as I learned more about the history of the game. It's only natural for the younger generation to gravitate towards the players they know from the newspapers, magazines or television. The longer they stay fans of the game, however, the harder it is not to look at the history. Once they start that, it's a natural progression to look for cards of those players as they become more familiar.

If nothing else, the cost of a pack of cards today is certainly good preparation for what they'll have to spend on a decent conditioned pre-war card!

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Posted By: Julie Vognar

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Posted By: Kevin Cummings

......until you've had a few and then it's spelled "asnd.ljkhf"

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Posted By: Adam Moraine

I am 23 years old (nearly 24) and ALL I collect is vintage baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia. Here are some of my collections highlights.

Autographs

Mantle, dimaggio, williams, maris, ruth, cobb, fox, foxx, wagner, J.robinson, musial, etc, etc. etc, 250+ autos (including hollywood celebs, historical figures, and other pro athletes)

CARDS
T-206 Crawford
1941 play ball Ott
1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson
1953 topps mantle
1954 topps mays
1954 topps williams
1955 topps robinson
1956 topps williams
t-206 huggins
Nearly ALL of roger maris' cards (1958 topps rc psa 7)
etc, etc, etc, Just to name a few of my faves.

1934 batter-up Cochrane
1934 batter- up hornsby

I LOVE collecting vintage material from the days when are hobby was just that, a hobby. and when baseball was played for the love of the game, NOT multi- million dollar contracts ( See AROD) I am a volunteer, and charter member of the Bob Feller museum, as well. www.bobfellermuseum.org


Best Regards,

Adam J. Moraine
Des Moines, Iowa

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Posted By: Adam Moraine

I have been collecting since 1988, (age 8)

Adam Moraine
Des Moines, Iowa