Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Leon]

Let's please don't get political. IF you do, your post will be deleted and an infraction given.

Does the stock market's recent losses (or other big losses in short time frames) have a bearing on your buying of pre-war cards?

Personally, I tend to spend less when my IRA's are down 25% in the last several weeks.

[parkplace33]

Leon, I believe both the stock market and economy have impacts on the entire card market.

I talked to three guys that went to the Philly Card show over the weekend. All said the show was busy, but from their perspective, cards under $100 were selling, but people were leery about spending on the higher value cards. I expect the same
for the rest of 2025.

If you are concerned about the stock market/economy, you pull back in other areas.

[G1911]

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

[Exhibitman]

My research on boxing card prices over the years i've published my guide indicates a lag of about 10-12 months between a bear market bottom and a card market bottom. There seems to be a correlation but it takes a bit of time to pound the optimism out of investors and to bring them back out of their shelters.

Now that said, I don't really base my buying on the markets, I base it on the price. Nathan Rothschild said the time to buy when there is blood in the streets. I agree. I bought a lot of vintage cards during the Great Recession because they were so cheap (in some cases $2-$3 per slabbed PSA 8 HOFer) and sold them into the COVID run-up. I only wish I had purchased more cards in the trough sold more of my cards at or near their peaks.

[bk400]

I think the potential issue is the sentiment behind the stock market downturn. The current downturn is not purely a result of the broader US equities market being overvalued on a historical basis; there is a lot more going on -- and a lot more that we haven't seen in a generation or more.

Does this mean that people are more likely to splurge on a $100 card than a $1,000 card? Yes, I'd think so.

This said, I'd imagine that those who are spending upwards of $50,000 on a card probably aren't impacted psychologically in the same way (because their net worth is so high on an absolute level).

[calvindog]

I think it really depends on your age: if you’re retired or soon to be, the short term hiccups in the stock market can have a real impact on your finances and should spur cautious buying. As the markets have been on a pretty straight upward trajectory over the past 30+ years, most of us can deal with these (hopefully) temporary fluctuations. However, this is all based on your income obviously.

For me personally, I’d welcome a hit in card values so as to allow me to buy some big cards at a discount.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by G1911

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

Completely agree with this assessment.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by G1911

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Leon

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

+1. There's a large body of research that validates your point. We are fundamentally not 100 percent rational when it comes to most decisions, and losses hit us mentally a lot harder than wins.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Leon

But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years. Quite simply, very rarely does one company stay the smartest in the tech business for long. Even Apple had a major downswing for more than a dozen years until the emergence of the internet enabled it to reinvent itself with the iMac.

Originally Posted by Leon

I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because one sells those things only in absolute desperation.



Incidentally the buy-and-hold stable oligopolies investment strategy that served me so well for fifteen years went completely to hell in the last fifteen months. I'm now hurting a bit and not happy at all.

[rand1com]

The market goes up and down but if you have plenty of time for recovery, all will likely be fine as the market has been up on 10 year runs for many cycles.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because those are things one sells only in absolute desperation.

I actually like to believe in worst cases, for myself. Worst case is I move into a paid for, really nice house on a few acres, about a mile from where I live....and retire completely tomorrow. And I could live without ever touching my cards, savings or having anything to do with the forum monetarily.
I think I am ok. I give it some thought.
.

[Snapolit1]

A sustained period of a down stock market will eat away at year end or mid year bonuses for a lot of professionals, particularly financial types. I have always assumed that many big purchases are "bonus money" type situations. So I assume anything resembling a real serious market retrenchment will ultimately hit the vintage market hard. Maybe not immediate but it will.

[jbsports33]

I have done much better with lower end stuff the past year than higher end (above say 200.00) - before that selling was stronger for everything. Lower end collections are even selling, affordable cards are strong in both markets vintage and modern. I also see that to continue for the rest of the year. Thanks!

[Yoda]

Just a thought, but if the ultra wealthy are unloading their tech stocks, they are cash rich but immediately wish to put that cash into attractive investments. Why not collectibles, and in particular pre-War and post-War 40's and 50's vintage?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Just a thought, but if the ultra wealthy are unloading their tech stocks, they are cash rich but immediately wish to put that cash into attractive investments. Why not collectibles, and in particular pre-War and post-War 40's and 50's vintage?

I think the rich have already sold many of their cards are maybe now are keeping their powder dry for the drop in real estate...Seems Smart to me.

[oldjudge]

Leon-I think your biggest problem isn’t cards but rather the lack of diversification in your portfolio. For most people, especially younger ones, retirement account dollars are not available for card purchases anyway so the two should not be directly related. If one keeps saving regularly these down periods just allow for better long term buys.

[Brent G.]

I was out of collecting for 30 years. What changes did you all see during the tech bubble bust of '01 and the housing crash/Great Recession of '07-'12?ish Did spending dry up, did those least affected use it as an opportunity to buy low from those who needed quick cash? There weren't many brick-and-mortar card shops by then, but did it shutter those hanging on?

[Lorewalker]

Voted no because a stock market loss is only a loss if you sell your position. Not the greatest feeling seeing consistent dips but the endless new market highs are also not that comforting.

All markets adjust which gives an opportunity to either buy or sell. I do a lot in real estate and have never made a mistake unless I sell in a panic (which I did once) and can be avoided when you are diversified and have sufficient capital.

I apply this same concept to cards.

[Rich Klein]

One thing to consider is that if you are comfortable with your financial situation, then a major stock market dip may well be a time to buy. The old axiom of sell into an up market and buy into a down market has worked very well over the years and probably will work one more time.

And the best cards will remain just fine, it's the upper middle class to the middle class will have issues.

Oh, and low end will be fine if not even better as people want cards and if traditionally it's been lower end cards at lower prices doing well, well that will continue as well. Remember the low end is perceived to be affordable

Rich

[BioCRN]

I have 2 investment avenues. One is stocks/metals(mostly ETF) which I favor over a stocks/bonds mix. This is "retirement" (not 401K) and I mostly leave it untouched.

My active trading account was -much- more active during COVID with specific strategies that took advantage of trends during the global pandemic. It's purpose wasn't to help fund cards, but it did make some purchases no-brainers since the money leaving didn't matter as much as it might have. I know a good amount of collectors that bought into cards beyond what they thought they would because of help from the COVID-juiced stock market, even with rising prices on cards.

My plays in the market rely heavily on normal or easily predictable conditions. Even in non-normal times I've managed to find predictable investments, but what's going on right now for the past month...maybe some people have a predictable/safe path...not me, not even a clue.

My spare investment money has been sitting in a savings account paying 4%-ish for most of 2025 (currently 3.9%).

[brunswickreeves]

To me, given years to retirement and current asset allocations, a downturn in the stock market and steady state card buying (or upgrading) are not mutually exclusive. Card acquisition comes from ‘fun’ or excess money (e.g. bonus, unplanned consulting work, etc.) that is not required for living expenses. It doesn’t come from stock market gains or dividends, thus can still occur uninterrupted and not limited by a market’s paper loss. In fact, staying the collecting/buying course can result in achieving a seldom available white whale card.

[B O'Brien]

The market has a big impact on my spend on cards, especially the big ones.

I’m a pretty heavy trader, and it’s financed a significant portion of my pickups the last few years. Not an algo trader, but generally in the neighborhood of 75-100 manual trades a week. Up markets are nice, but I really bring in the cash on flat weeks. I sell weekly covered strangles and straddles against my core holdings to bring in cash when things are hopefully nice and slow with a slight uptrend. I’ve been wearily the last couple weeks (which has paid off) and have only been selling covered calls against my positions and bringing in cash on the drops. Not enough to cover the position losses the last couple weeks, but they will bounce back in time and they are generating cash on the drops. Even active trading is an exercise is maintaining discipline and strategy, if you are doing it right.

I probably spend 20-25 hours a week doing the research and active trading. It isn’t my main job, but hopefully it will be in the next two years!

When there’s blood in the streets, it’s time to buy!

Bob

[raulus]

Seems like most luxury goods see a decline in purchases during economic downturns.

I guess we can debate whether cardboard is a luxury good, but at a minimum it sure seems like a discretionary one. And when plenty of pieces cost 4 or 5 figures or more, it can feel an awful lot like a luxury at those price points.

For anyone with a big position in the market that takes a hit, it's hard to imagine it has precisely zero impact on their approach to spending.

[sb1]

Traditionally when the stock markets decline, many people will move into the "alternative investments" one of which now is sports collectibles,(used to be art and antiques), which tends to make our collectibles more attractive and rise in value.

[MR RAREBACK]

The only thing I cut back on is how much I'm spending on food.

[mrreality68]

I keep the 2 separate parts of my collection and long term investments

So when the market goes down I actually put more funds into the market and sometimes if it goes down a lot I will take some funds from my card funds and put extra into the market.

I know many people that have funds and when the market is down they actually keep there money in the market so they do not take a loss but they will not put new money into it and look for alternatives places to put the money and collectibles is on such avenue for them.

[Peter_Spaeth]

....

[RhodeyRhode]

I would say absolutely especially in the $500-$10,000 range of cards. Above that you can withstand downturns. But in the range people pull back incase they need money not knowing when market will bounce back

[Exhibitman]

Diversify, Leon; you're way too old not to

[jethrod3]

I think the stock market WILL have a bearing on the pre-war card market. Some rare and star cards will always sell well, but I think prices in general will fall if the stock market continues to have more bad days than good, as people deal with real or perceived losses of some chunk of disposable income.

But for me, the stock market might dictate how long I put off retirement but not the buying of cards I need. As I head toward exiting late middle-age (at least on paper, though not necessarily in mind or body), I tend not to stray from a philosophy I adopted when I was firmly in middle-age: Unless I'm completing a set and need a scarce piece for my collection, or a particular card I've always wanted but still have yet to purchase (in which case I might be willing to overpay a bit), I try my best not to buy anything that my wife or kids can't sell the next day for at least around the same price that I paid for it!

[Republicaninmass]

People are convinced the market just goes up...regardless of the market they are in. I guess just like stocks, it isn't as much timing the market as time IN the market.

I see more and more dealers with the 707 approach. I guess of they can hold a decade or more they will get their price, but be ready for downturn and souring sentiment.

I sold off my 401k to buy cards, during covid sold my cards and went back to stocks and had fun in the process. Long term holding dividend stocks, very light on QQQ , and likely will take large positions in materials and energy here while they are on the canvass.

[1952boyntoncollector]

i recall it not having any impact at all during the months of the covid crash and people asking about it on this forum during the crash.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

i recall it not having any impact at all during the months of the covid crash and people asking about it on this forum during the crash.

The COVID crash lasted a couple months at best then the market started giving away money hand over fist.

A good amount of middle class became upper middle class and a good amount of the rich got very rich.

People with 60/40 portfolios were kinda treading water and though safe, didn't really cash in on the situation.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

....

Not sure where you got that graph from but it is factually wrong, as far as I can tell.

As for diversifying; hey I went from 1 stock to 2 stocks to 4 stocks. But they are all technology ones . Buy the dip!
.

[Smanzari]

Definitely does for me, prime buying time coming soon in a couple weeks!

[Cory]

Is anyone aware of current card indexes - I know that PWCC used to do a TOP 500, and I've seen someone indexed a t206 set vs. the S&P 500 before (but only for a few years and very old data at this point) - the Vendix - link below. Eyeballing the PWCC top 500 chart through 2018 or so it doesn't look like there is much correlation between stocks and cards.

A nice T206 520 Index would be great - with current and historic values.

https://t206resource.com/Article%20V...206%20Set.html

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not sure where you got that graph from but it is factually wrong, as far as I can tell.

As for diversifying; hey I went from 1 stock to 2 stocks to 4 stocks. But they are all technology ones . Buy the dip!
.

How is it wrong? It isn't wrong.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How is it wrong? It isn't wrong.

Maybe I am misreading it?
I guess if you are talking about the day it started, then yes, anything would be an increase (3000%?). Otherwise, it looks like that graph is saying we have record amounts of positive gains, when we don't. The Dow was down by about 10% yesterday, from all time highs. This is more like it, as of today.....(all time high is about 45000)


Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Follow
41,502.29
-409.42
(-0.98%)


.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

Maybe I am misreading it?
I guess if you are talking about the day it started, then yes, anything would be an increase (3000%?). Otherwise, it looks like that graph is saying we have record amounts of positive gains, when we don't. The Dow was down by about 10% yesterday, from all time highs. This is more like it, as of today.....(all time high is about 45000)


Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Follow
41,502.29
-409.42
(-0.98%)



.

The point is that history shows that stocks go up enormously over time, and one should not panic over the inevitable downturns and corrections along the way unless one is on a very compressed timeframe for needing the money. For example, the market has more than doubled since the low pandemic point. Of course, I am referring to the market as a whole, not to any individual stocks.

[butchie_t]

Na,

If I want it, I can afford it, I get it.

Market has no influence on my purchases.

Butch

[Ronnie73]

I voted no. Mainly because my card spending money comes from a completely different source. Personally I think the stock market is finally starting to adjust to it's true market value. There's been way too many gains over the last 9 years that just don't match up to the surrounding income and expenses, along with the value of the dollar. I could agree with the reason of the previous few years of market gains to equal or match the adjustment of inflation and what a dollar bill can currently buy you in real life.

For example, Say our dollar is worth a dollar and can buy you a dollar's worth of items. While at the same time, say the stock market is at 30,000. If the dollar loses half of it's buying power due to inflation and the over printing of money. I would also expect the stock market to increase to 45,000. Now that increase of the stock market looks great, and people are making nice dividends, and feeling good about that stock market price. But the reality is the stock market increased by 50 percent, only because the dollar value and buying power decreased by 50 percent.

This is obviously just my opinion, and simple math.

[packs]

I think there's a heavy caveat involved: are you nearing the end term of your investments?

I'm not. I can't touch my Roth IRA for another 20 years. I could care less about the market today.

If I was in dire need of my retirement funds, then I'd be watching what I spend because chances are this is the absolute worst time to need your money.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How is it wrong? It isn't wrong.

The graph is correct. The "problem" though is that its scale on the vertical axis is arithmetic and not geometric. This means that recent percentage changes aren't apparent at a glance.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

The graph is correct. The "problem" though is that it's scale on the vertical axis is arithmetic and not geometric. This means that recent percentage changes aren't apparent at a glance.

Or, one could conclude that in the big picture, they aren't that significant. But sure, any graph's visual impact depends on scaling.

[BioCRN]

Money that is sunk into a stock "down in the moment" is money that is not working for you.

It's a lost opportunity.

Eventually you may find yourself back to even or profit, but there's a cost of lost opportunity while it sits there trying to get back to where you started.

It can even make sense to sell at a loss to put your money back to work depending on your next plan.

[Section103]

I think there are indirect impacts. When the market is down, there often is economic uncertainty that can curtail discretionary spending of any kind. If we're worried about the future or our jobs - it has an impact. Also, as the market fluctuates, it has an impact on who is in the market and who is out and that can lead a few speculators to get more into cards (alternatives to the market) or less (heavier focused on the market). It doesnt impact me directly very often as Im a low budget collector, but the impacts are definitely there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Money that is sunk into a stock "down in the moment" is money that is not working for you.

It's a lost opportunity.

Eventually you may find yourself back to even or profit, but there's a cost of lost opportunity while it sits there trying to get back to where you started.

It can even make sense to sell at a loss to put your money back to work depending on your next plan.

If you're an active trader, sure. But most people do not have the time, energy, and sophistication that takes. Buy and hold, and broad based funds, work better for most people as I understand it.

[Exhibitman]

For us mere mortals, securities are all about timing, not skill. My wife and I are terrible at it so we retained a financial planner to handle our portfolio. I just have to hope that I am not caught in a downdraft like the 2000s. The S&P 500's total return from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 was a loss of 9.10%. The fact that it came roaring back eventually would not have meant much to someone who had to live on the proceeds for those years.

[Snapolit1]

I wish I was the kind of alpha male collector who welcomes the “blood on the street” and is salivating at the opportunity to pounce, but unfortunately I have an entire life away from vintage card collecting. There is work, kids not yet settled, elderly parents, illness, etc.