Next HOF vote announcement January 21

[Peter_Spaeth]

Didn't see a thread on the first page, sorry if repeat. Based on the tracker and reports as well as my own thoughts:

Ichiro LOCK
Sabathia LOCK
Wagner LIKELY
Beltran MAYBE MAYBE NOT BUT LEANING NO
Jones UNLIKELY

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Didn't see a thread on the first page, sorry if repeat. Based on the tracker and reports as well as my own thoughts:

Ichiro LOCK
Sabathia LOCK
Wagner LIKELY
Beltran MAYBE MAYBE NOT BUT LEANING NO
Jones UNLIKELY

There's been a thread in the Watercooler section for a while:

https://net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=356185

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

There's been a thread in the Watercooler section for a while:

https://net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=356185

The Hall deserves the front page.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The Hall deserves the front page.

The Hallway deserves it as well, considering all the shining stars involved.

Brian

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

The Hallway deserves it as well, considering all the shining stars involved.



Brian

Jack Nicholson and Shelly Duvall desrverve to be in that hall. They were the biggest stars of them all. The fact that their performances were enhanced by drugs shouldn't matter. Everyone in Hollywood was doing cocaine back then.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Jack Nicholson and Shelly Duvall desrverve to be in that hall. They were the biggest stars of them all. The fact that their performances were enhanced by drugs shouldn't matter. Everyone in Hollywood was doing cocaine back then.

I see what you did there.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

The Hallway deserves it as well, considering all the shining stars involved.

Brian

"Danny, oh Danny, do you want to trade baseball cards."

[perezfan]

Wagner is in his final year of eligibility, and the margin will be razor-thin either way. I personally don't like "closers" in the Hall, but will be interested to see his plight. I think he might barely miss out.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Wagner is in his final year of eligibility, and the margin will be razor-thin either way. I personally don't like "closers" in the Hall, but will be interested to see his plight. I think he might barely miss out.

I'm still shaking my head over Lee Smith. There are many relievers not in the Hall better than Lee Smith, including Billy Wagner.

[bmattioli]

Sabathia LOCK

NOT

Maybe since it's getting easier to get in.

[mainemule]

I posted this in other thread (I rarely go to Watercooler)

CC looking like a first ballot inductee and Schilling not being in is ridiculous. CC only exceeds him in games, wins and IP. He does have one Cy. Schilling's post season numbers and results greatly exceed CCs.

I deplore most of Schilling's post career behaviors but his on field results make him worthy.

I also would like Jeff Kent to be given a better look if Chase Utley is gathering steam.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

Sabathia LOCK

NOT

Maybe since it's getting easier to get in.

The Hall of Fame vote tracker has accounted for 43.6% of the votes cast this year already. Sabathia has 93% right now. He's a lock. There's no way the remaining unknown votes will be under 61.1%. That would be the biggest difference ever in the tracker history by a lot

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by z28jd

The Hall of Fame vote tracker has accounted for 43.6% of the votes cast this year already. Sabathia has 93% right now. He's a lock. There's no way the remaining unknown votes will be under 61.1%. That would be the biggest difference ever in the tracker history by a lot

I stand corrected..

[Mike D.]

Wagner was five votes short last year, and is currently 8 new voters for him and nobody who voted for him previously removing him.

Cardlines Guide To The New Candidates On The 2025 Baseball Hall Of Fame Ballot

Cardlines Guide To The Returning Candidates On The 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

[jayshum]

Announcement is tonight at 6. I still think it's Ichiro, C.C. and Wagner getting in. Beltran will miss by 10-15 and Jones will be a little behind Beltran.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mainemule

I posted this in other thread (I rarely go to Watercooler)



CC looking like a first ballot inductee and Schilling not being in is ridiculous. CC only exceeds him in games, wins and IP. He does have one Cy. Schilling's post season numbers and results greatly exceed CCs.



I deplore most of Schilling's post career behaviors but his on field results make him worthy.



I also would like Jeff Kent to be given a better look if Chase Utley is gathering steam.

Ed Wade, Phillies GM, talking about his star pitcher Schilling:

"He's a horse every fifth day, and a horse's ass the other four."

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[mrreality68]

As of now based on Tracker with 52.6% of all the Ballots this morning

Ichiro LOCK 100%
Sabathia LOCK 92.7%
Wagner LIKELY 85%
Beltran On Bubble 81.6%
Jones UNLIKELY 72.6%

But typically there is a 4 to 6% Drop once the final counts come in from what is reported

Beltran should make it but not by a comfortable margin probably in the 75% to 77% range.
So Jones is probably going to come in around 68 or 69% and thus miss

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm ready.

[packs]

I think over time Ichiro will become one of the toughest HOF autographs to pick up. I don't really see him ever hitting the show circuit:

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by packs

I think over time Ichiro will become one of the toughest HOF autographs to pick up. I don't really see him ever hitting the show circuit:

sweet card

[conor912]

It’s surreal to me that players from the shiny card era are now Hall of Fame eligible!

[mrreality68]

Just announced

Ichiro Made it but not 100% some idiot voter did not vote for him
Sabathia Made It
Wagner Made it
Beltran fell short
Jones fell short

[brianp-beme]

Here are the votes for all candidates:

The vote: Ichiro Suzuki 393 (99.7%), CC Sabathia 342 (86.8), Billy Wagner 325 (82.5), Carlos Beltrán 277 (70.3), Andruw Jones 261 (66.2), Chase Utley 157 (39.8), Álex Rodríguez 146 (37.1), Manny Ramírez 135 (34.3), Andy Pettitte 110 (27.9), Félix Hernández 81 (20.6), Bobby Abreu 77 (19.5), Jimmy Rollins 71 (18.0), Omar Vizquel 70 (17.8), Dustin Pedroia 47 (11.9), Mark Buehrle 45 (11.4), Francisco Rodríguez 40 (10.2), David Wright 32 (8.1), Torii Hunter 20 (5.1), Ian Kinsler 10 (2.5), Russell Martin 9 (2.3), Brian McCann 7 (1.8), Troy Tulowitzki 4 (1.0), Curtis Granderson 3 (0.8), Adam Jones 3 (0.8), Carlos González 2 (0.5), Hanley Ramírez 0, Fernando Rodney 0, Ben Zobrist 0.


Brian

[JollyElm]

Just started reading this thread, so I have to ask.

We watched his entire career, so when Andruw Jones was playing, did anyone (possibly outside of big Braves fans) think of him as a Hall of Famer?? Even with his Gold Gloves, I don't know a single person who did.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Just started reading this thread, so I have to ask.

We watched his entire career, so when Andruw Jones was playing, did anyone (possibly outside of big Braves fans) think of him as a Hall of Famer?? Even with his Gold Gloves, I don't know a single person who did.

No, Braves fans are delusional

[G1911]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

The vote: Ichiro Suzuki 393 (99.7%), CC Sabathia 342 (86.8), Billy Wagner 325 (82.5), Carlos Beltrán 277 (70.3), Andruw Jones 261 (66.2), Chase Utley 157 (39.8), Álex Rodríguez 146 (37.1), Manny Ramírez 135 (34.3), Andy Pettitte 110 (27.9), Félix Hernández 81 (20.6), Bobby Abreu 77 (19.5), Jimmy Rollins 71 (18.0), Omar Vizquel 70 (17.8), Dustin Pedroia 47 (11.9), Mark Buehrle 45 (11.4), Francisco Rodríguez 40 (10.2), David Wright 32 (8.1), Torii Hunter 20 (5.1), Ian Kinsler 10 (2.5), Russell Martin 9 (2.3), Brian McCann 7 (1.8), Troy Tulowitzki 4 (1.0), Curtis Granderson 3 (0.8), Adam Jones 3 (0.8), Carlos González 2 (0.5), Hanley Ramírez 0, Fernando Rodney 0, Ben Zobrist 0.

Adam Jones getting 3 and Hanley 0 seems the thing most wrong with this. Torii Hunter just barely holds onto the ballot again.

[paul]

I'm sure glad I picked up this Sabathia yesterday. It's still on its way. I also picked up this collegiate Billy Wagner a few days ago, and it arrived today. (It cost me $1). And I've had the 1993 Ichiro for a long time. All three are first cards as far as I know.

[tod41]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Here are the votes for all candidates:

The vote: Ichiro Suzuki 393 (99.7%), CC Sabathia 342 (86.8), Billy Wagner 325 (82.5), Carlos Beltrán 277 (70.3), Andruw Jones 261 (66.2), Chase Utley 157 (39.8), Álex Rodríguez 146 (37.1), Manny Ramírez 135 (34.3), Andy Pettitte 110 (27.9), Félix Hernández 81 (20.6), Bobby Abreu 77 (19.5), Jimmy Rollins 71 (18.0), Omar Vizquel 70 (17.8), Dustin Pedroia 47 (11.9), Mark Buehrle 45 (11.4), Francisco Rodríguez 40 (10.2), David Wright 32 (8.1), Torii Hunter 20 (5.1), Ian Kinsler 10 (2.5), Russell Martin 9 (2.3), Brian McCann 7 (1.8), Troy Tulowitzki 4 (1.0), Curtis Granderson 3 (0.8), Adam Jones 3 (0.8), Carlos González 2 (0.5), Hanley Ramírez 0, Fernando Rodney 0, Ben Zobrist 0.


Brian

The last guy I wanted on the mound when the games really counted was Billy Wagner. You can go on about his stats but its like a kicker in football who is great in the regular season but gets the yips in the playoffs. That was Wagner all the time.

[Peter_Spaeth]

10.03 post season ERA. Jesus.

[Mike D.]

The three guys generally expected got in. Nice bump by Beltran, although the secret ballots folks REALLY don't like him. Jones continues to creep up, and nice gain for Utley. Felix did better than I expected, which means he should hang out on the ballot while voters further review his case.

From the tracker to the ballot, Wagner dropped a bit, but Francisco Rodriguez actually had a higher % among private voters. Only a few % points in each case, but still. Weird.

No sure-thing first year candidates next year, so could be a good opportunity for Beltran and maybe Jones.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

10.03 post season ERA. Jesus.

Only 11 innings so a pretty small sample size, but still not a good showing.

[MorrellMan]

Glad for Ichiro and CC certainly is deserving.

I just can't get onboard with Wagner. This is a guy whose entire career consisted of a little more than 900 innings in over 850 games (900 innings @ 1/2 hr/outing = 150 games @ 3 hrs/game). All he did was pitch the last inning of a game his team was already winning, sometimes by as much as 3 runs. The opponent is in their last chance in a game they might already have given up.

Whatever their mental state, it just isn't a level playing field and disrepects those enshrined who labored thru 20 times more games, at least that much wear and tear on the body, that much more risk of injury, etc.

I have no interest in closers being in the HOF.

[Peter_Spaeth]

https://retrosheet.org/Research/Smit...fTheCloser.pdf

[Mike D.]

I said no sure thing candidate next year and that's for sure. The best candidate is probably Hamels. I was thinking "not quite" but he's closer to Felix than I'd have thought. It'll be interesting to see how voters react.



I'm guessing that Felix's Cy Young award and two second place finishes is seen as a big difference to voters.

[bk400]

Hard to understand how Ichiro wasn't unanimous.

This said, I think the attention on unanimity gives too much mindshare and airtime to a small group (in this case, a small group of one) of attention-seeking, probably personally aggrieved, HOF voters who are voting on a set of criteria that only he or she can explain or understand.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by bk400

Hard to understand how Ichiro wasn't unanimous.

This said, I think the attention on unanimity gives too much mindshare and airtime to a small group (in this case, a small group of one) of attention-seeking, probably personally aggrieved, HOF voters who are voting on a set of criteria that only he or she can explain or understand.

It will be interesting to see if the one voter is willing to make his ballot public and explain/defend it. I'm guessing no.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

Hard to understand how Ichiro wasn't unanimous.

This said, I think the attention on unanimity gives too much mindshare and airtime to a small group (in this case, a small group of one) of attention-seeking, probably personally aggrieved, HOF voters who are voting on a set of criteria that only he or she can explain or understand.

Nobody except Rivera has ever been unanimous. Just an empty ritual.

[hammertime]

Very cool to have the first Japanese player in Cooperstown!

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by packs

I think over time Ichiro will become one of the toughest HOF autographs to pick up. I don't really see him ever hitting the show circuit:

He was until about 5 years ago. He and Griffey signed heavily for Mill Creek and both do private signings with Seattle shops a couple times a year. I also see a lot of consignments get completed around Seattle’s ST.

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

He was until about 5 years ago. He and Griffey signed heavily for Mill Creek and both do private signings with Seattle shops a couple times a year. I also see a lot of consignments get completed around Seattle’s ST.

Mill Creek Sports sent out an email this afternoon congratulating Ichiro on making the Hall, and thanking him for the exclusive memorabilia signing partnership they've had with him since 2004...20 years now. I got my baseball signed by him through Mill Creek probably 15 years ago. So he has pretty much always been available if you were willing to pay.

[tod41]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Only 11 innings so a pretty small sample size, but still not a good showing.

11 innings with 13 earned runs and 21 hits. Was in 8 post season series and his team lost 7 of them. Gave up a go ahead 9th inning homerun to So Taguchi of all people in game 2 of the 2006 NLCS which was the turning point of that series. But hey Jayson Starks says he only blew one save in the playoffs!

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Just started reading this thread, so I have to ask.

We watched his entire career, so when Andruw Jones was playing, did anyone (possibly outside of big Braves fans) think of him as a Hall of Famer?? Even with his Gold Gloves, I don't know a single person who did.

Not a Braves fan...

Yes, I did think he was a HOF....for 10 seasons, from 1998 to 2007, he averaged 35 HRs and 100 RBIs per season, about 160 hits per season, and was hell of an outfielder.....one of the best at his position defensively (most people do not dispute that).

Unfortunately, the last 5 seasons, he completely broke down and only played partial seasons.....but for those 10 years, he was very good offensively and superb defensively. For me, he passed on eye test alone.....and I am not, nor was I ever, a Braves fan.

I do think that Jones will get in either next year or his final year on the ballot....

As for Ichiro not getting unanimous....ridiculous. I am guessing that for Pujols, there will also be some idiot who will not vote for him on the first ballot, despite having these stats...

WAR
101.4

H
3384

HR
703

R
1914

RBI
2218

OBP
.374

SLG
.544

OPS
.918

OPS+
145

The election of Wagner should open the doors (at least a bit) for Chapman and Kimbrel.....

[BioCRN]

Speaking of Ichiro and Pujols, I don't know if it was a coincidence, but I remember seeing a lot more action at card shows and interest in the hobby in general during 2001 after a lull in the mid-late 90s.

McGwire and Sosa woke the fans up, Ichiro and Pujols brought people back into cardboard.

That was kinda fun, but it's anecdotal on my end and might be some localized rose colored memory.

[JollyElm]

t206billywagner.jpg

[packs]

I know Mill Creek has a partnership with Ichiro but I wonder how active he will be in his retirement verses when he was a player. I don't know where Ichiro spends his time but if he returned to Japan in his retirement I would think that will make him a tough signature in the years ahead.

That said, he is featured in most if not all Topps products as an insert autograph. I just mean it might be tough to get him on items you specifically want him on.

[ClementeFanOh]

Congrats to the 3 inductees! Trent King

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Congrats to the 3 inductees! Trent King

+1 Agreed
Congrats and FYI

next years line up of new candidates is the WORST I have ever seen

2026 Hall of Fame ballot newcomers
Cole Hamels
Ryan Braun
Alex Gordon
Shin-Soo Choo
Edwin Encarnacion
Howie Kendrick
Nick Markakis
Hunter Pence
Gio Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Jason Kipnis
Daniel Murphy
Rick Porcello
Matt Wieters
Jeff Samardzija
Kelvin Herrera
Edinson Volquez

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

+1 Agreed
Congrats and FYI

next years line up of new candidates is the WORST I have ever seen

2026 Hall of Fame ballot newcomers
Cole Hamels
Ryan Braun
Alex Gordon
Shin-Soo Choo
Edwin Encarnacion
Howie Kendrick
Nick Markakis
Hunter Pence
Gio Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Jason Kipnis
Daniel Murphy
Rick Porcello
Matt Wieters
Jeff Samardzija
Kelvin Herrera
Edinson Volquez

Wow, that's rough. Hamels has some nice analytics and a couple postseason MVP's, but not nearly enough traditional stats. Braun suffers from the same issue that other guys a lot better than him, have. Encarnacion was a late bloomer who had some really good offensive years in his 30's...some other pretty good players, but nobody that really warrants a 2nd look.

I'd be mildly surprised if anybody outside of Hamels and maybe Braun, even gets on a 2nd ballot.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Wow, that's rough. Hamels has some nice analytics and a couple postseason MVP's, but not nearly enough traditional stats. Braun suffers from the same issue that other guys a lot better than him, have. Encarnacion was a late bloomer who had some really good offensive years in his 30's...some other pretty good players, but nobody that really warrants a 2nd look.

I'd be mildly surprised if anybody outside of Hamels and maybe Braun, even gets on a 2nd ballot.

And this makes it easier for Beltran and Jones to get the votes needed for next year with little to no competition

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

So Billy Wagner is a HOF'er and K-Rod almost falls off the ballot. Yes Wagner was better, but not by THAT much. Also I'm not advocating for more relievers in the hall just comparing apples to slightly less nice less apples.