True Population of Substantial Cards

[benedini]

Hello everyone - I've bought a few things here and there from members but generally abstained from the message boards so officially "hi".

I generally collect some of the more popular vintage cards (T206 Cobb, 33 Ruth/Gehrig, etc.) and have long been wondering about the true population numbers. I know it's pretty unlikely that a 1933 Goudey common is cracked out and re-submitted but it's definitely at least somewhat common for the big guys like Ruth, Cobb, 51/52 Mantles, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Williams, Wagner, Young, etc....

Unfortunately not everyone returns the old labels when cracking so the true population numbers of these cards is not accurate and is definitely lower than what the official PSA/SGC reports show. How much lower is something I've been trying to figure out. Speaking with a few other collectors/dealers so far the general consensus seems to be in the 25-30% range (meaning 25-30% fewer cards in existence than the pop reports show for the BIG cards). Just curious as to what other members here think with all your years of experience in the hobby. Thanks for your replies!