Babe Ruth $$$

[jingram058]

I just read in Waite Hoyt's "Babe Ruth As I Knew Him", and he did know him and served as a pall bearer at his funeral, that Babe Ruth autographed an estimated 1 million baseballs during his playing career and thereafter. He also personalized untold numbers of photos, etc. They are not scarce.

According to allvintagecards.com, there are literally thousands of each of the four 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth cards in existence. They are, relatively speaking, not scarce.

Why, then, the meteoric rise in value?

I paid $500 in 1988 for my 1934-39 William Harridge OAL ball signed by Babe Ruth, authenticated by Harvey Brandwein. This ball is now worth thousands. Why?

[Kris19]

Hi James - Because he’s Babe Ruth. Even though there is a large supply, there is far greater demand. Scarcity alone does not equal value.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Kris19

Hi James - Because he’s Babe Ruth. Even though there is a large supply, there is far greater demand. Scarcity alone does not equal value.

Kris hit the nail squarely on the head back at the beginning of this truly revealing and interesting thread.

[Carter08]

I read an interesting article that non-scarcity in some instances can help drive value to a certain extent. 1933 Goudey was the focus. A lot of the HOFers are fairly plentiful and the availability draws more people in to giving it a go. I got suckered in by that I admit. Obviously a fine balance because scarcity will still create high prices (see eg T206 Wagner) and overproduction will create low prices (see eg a Mike Piazza rookie).

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Carter08

I read an interesting article that non-scarcity in some instances can help drive value to a certain extent. 1933 Goudey was the focus. A lot of the HOFers are fairly plentiful and the availability draws more people in to giving it a go. I got suckered in by that I admit. Obviously a fine balance because scarcity will still create high prices (see eg T206 Wagner) and overproduction will create low prices (see eg a Mike Piazza rookie).

It definitely makes sense from an economic theory perspective. I would imagine that value likely follows some sort of an S-curve similar to an adoption curve with respect to scarcity/supply. If there are too few of something, it often doesn't have a strong demand simply because people are unaware of its existence, but if you make too many of them, then everyone has one. There is always an overall market cap for the current relative value of something (which, of course, changes over time with respect to market conditions that affect that item).

However, there's also an interesting phenomenon that comes into play where something that is extremely rare can still have remarkably strong demand if it is associated with something else that has high population counts & demand. A prime example of this is, of course, the T206 Wagner card. The reason that card is so valuable isn't just because there are only ~50 of them known to exist (or whatever the number is), but rather because there are ~50 from an otherwise massively produced and widely collected set. Contrast that with something like the 1929 Churchman's Cigarettes Babe Ruth card which is far more rare than many of his more popular and valuable cards (PSA's pop count is only 308), but because it belongs to a set that is otherwise not widely collected or known about, it has very little relative value today. This is probably pointing out the obvious, but it's still a fun exercise in market economics to me. It's the same thing with modern cards and the disparity between say a Prizm Gold basketball parallel card numbered to /10 and some other random gold parallel from a far less popular set. Both cards could be /10s, but it is the association with the widely collected Prizm cards that make the Prizm Gold 100x as valuable as a Gold parallel from some other random set that most people don't care about.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

some Ruthian eye candy

[Frankish]

So many great cards and photos and autographs in this thread. And so many great insights. I've really enjoyed following it.

It's funny...relative to the card market in general (and that's a big relative), I think Ruth stuff is pretty reasonable and some of it even underpriced.

Originally Posted by Snowman

It definitely makes sense from an economic theory perspective. I would imagine that value likely follows some sort of an S-curve similar to an adoption curve with respect to scarcity/supply. If there are too few of something, it often doesn't have a strong demand simply because people are unaware of its existence, but if you make too many of them, then everyone has one. There is always an overall market cap for the current relative value of something (which, of course, changes over time with respect to market conditions that affect that item).

However, there's also an interesting phenomenon that comes into play where something that is extremely rare can still have remarkably strong demand if it is associated with something else that has high population counts & demand. A prime example of this is, of course, the T206 Wagner card. The reason that card is so valuable isn't just because there are only ~50 of them known to exist (or whatever the number is), but rather because there are ~50 from an otherwise massively produced and widely collected set. Contrast that with something like the 1929 Churchman's Cigarettes Babe Ruth card which is far more rare than many of his more popular and valuable cards (PSA's pop count is only 308), but because it belongs to a set that is otherwise not widely collected or known about, it has very little relative value today....

Agreed. This also probably goes a long way toward explaining why one can pick up some really magnificent Type 1 Ruth photos (some of them one of a kind or one of only a handful of known examples) or even original glass negatives for less than the price of a dog-chewed playing days card. I've purchased quite a few over the years because they are really beautiful baseball artifacts, but they will probably always remain on the wrong side of that curve for someone in it for the money....

[jingram058]

Every thread needs a card.

[Snapolit1]

Single most iconic athlete in American history. I guess some could argue Michael Jordan.

[sb1]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Single most iconic athlete in American history. I guess some could argue Michael Jordan.

Perhaps in the first half of the 20th century, Muhammad Ali probably holds that title for the second half....even beyond Jordan. Just my opinion.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by sb1

Perhaps in the first half of the 20th century, Muhammad Ali probably holds that title for the second half....even beyond Jordan. Just my opinion.

I fully understand the Ruthian icon. But with so much of his stuff, even personalized, still around and commanding real serious money, I guess that shows just how big he truly (still) is.

[sbfinley]

No doubt Ruth was an amazing signer in his day, but 1,000,000 is an implausibly high number and more hyperbole of Ruth’s generous nature. If it takes 5 seconds to grab a ball, sign your name, and sit it down. You would have to sign 24/7 365 days a year without rest for 10 years to hit that number. I think a lower number like 3,000-5,000 signed balls is more into reality and like Scott stated: many of those balls didn’t survive to today. Supply and demand.

[FourStrikes]

Originally Posted by sb1

Perhaps in the first half of the 20th century, Muhammad Ali probably holds that title for the second half....even beyond Jordan. Just my opinion.

agree - Ali = Gandhi, Jordan = Elvis.

JMHO.

[egri]

Not all of those million baseballs survived to the present day. I'm willing to bet that a very large percentage of them were thrown out, lost, or not taken care of and damaged beyond recognition long before they had any significant monetary value.

[mrreality68]

At this point more people then ever want to buy a Ruth Card.

Even cards that for years were thought of as undervalued or underappreciated and would not sell for alot have recently exploded to new highs both high grade and low grade ruth cards.

Like the 1921 e121 Ruth Pose card did well but now are getting really up in prices
The same for the 1928 Icecream Ruth Cards like the Tharps or Harrington Icecream Card.

On that subject I Love the Ruth Card that James posted and I hope one day to own.

But I am into the earlier cards at the moment so I am posting this one

[2dueces]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

At this point more people then ever want to buy a Ruth Card.

Even cards that for years were thought of as undervalued or underappreciated and would not sell for alot have recently exploded to new highs both high grade and low grade ruth cards.

Like the 1921 e121 Ruth Pose card did well but now are getting really up in prices
The same for the 1928 Icecream Ruth Cards like the Tharps or Harrington Icecream Card.

On that subject I Love the Ruth Card that James posted and I hope one day to own.

But I am into the earlier cards at the moment so I am posting this one

That is a great postcard.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by 2dueces

That is a great postcard.

Thanks I am trying to start to expand my small Ruth Collection.

But it is costly and

1. need to do it strategically
2. other parts of my collection I am working on
3. timing on what and when things becomes available.

[Exhibitman]

Why Ruth? He's the GOAT. #1 WAR. #1 Slugging. #1 OPS. Not to mention the pitching. In two World Series he was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA. Everyone else compares to him. He even has an adjective: Ruthian. He is the key card in every set in which he appears. With all that, why wouldn't he be the top dog and command the most money even with a strong supply of cards?

[brianp-beme]

Collectors regard Ruth so highly that even a card like this one actually has value.

Brian (crazy to think that a card in two pieces and missing huge chunks would easily command something a few rungs up the three figure ladder).

[jingram058]

Here is one example that would open the door of what we call reasonable doubt:

[packs]

I no longer own this photo, but to give you even a small idea of the number of signed BATS there were after a sitting with the Babe, here's my old photo of him signing them:

[ullmandds]

as we all know...the # of bats...balls ruth signed isn't important...it's how many are left thats important?

[packs]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

as we all know...the # of bats...balls ruth signed isn't important...it's how many are left thats important?

I don't know but if you see an old bat at a garage sale look at it carefully!

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know but if you see an old bat at a garage sale look at it carefully!

haha...i usually do!!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

as we all know...the # of bats...balls ruth signed isn't important...it's how many are left thats important?

Agreed

The amount left and the demand along with the eye appeal of the signature determines the price

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Here is one example that would open the door of what we call reasonable doubt:

Doing a quick estimate that's not much over 100 balls.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Doing a quick estimate that's not much over 100 balls.

I would estimate 125, + or -

I'm an imbecile, not a mathematician

Dizzy Dean - "The good Lord gave me a strong body, a strong right arm, and a weak mind"

[jingram058]

Here is some very interesting "Ruthiana" that I hope doesn't get lost in this thread. Everyone just assumes Babe Ruth didn't pitch again after his fire sale to the Yankees. Not true, and here is proof.

[Carter08]

Wow, do you know who is batting in that middle pic?

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Here is some very interesting "Ruthiana" that I hope doesn't get lost in this thread. Everyone just assumes Babe Ruth didn't pitch again after his fire sale to the Yankees. Not true, and here is proof.

Nice photo and great story

Thanks for sharing

[vintagechris]

As said before, demand definitely outweights supply when it comes to the Babe. I think some are overestimating how many cards are out there. Only the Goudey 144 has over 1000 in the pop report. Throw in others graded by other TPG's and the number of raw still out there, I just don't think it's as many as some people think.

The other thing I think people sometimes forget when talking about the number of something in existence is the number that exist that are actually on the open market. Way more people that own them and have no intention of selling anytime soon than people who are willing to sell them.

For anyone that has tried winning a Babe Ruth card at auction in the last couple of years, it's not that easy.

[J-Yo]

For me, I think his autograph is common and inflated. I put more effort into Grover Cleveland Alexander who died around the same time as Ruth but lived as a drunken vagrant for the last 20 years of his life and is much more rare but obviously not in as much demand.
.With that being said YES I would like to own one someday and my goal is to get everyone in that first HOF class photo. I’m at 6/10 (have Cobb). The story goes Cobb was too cheap to stay in Cooperstown and didn’t make it in time for the photograph.


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[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by J-Yo

For me, I think his autograph is common and inflated. I put more effort into Grover Cleveland Alexander who died around the same time as Ruth but lived as a drunken vagrant for the last 20 years of his life and is much more rare but obviously not in as much demand.
.With that being said YES I would like to own one someday and my goal is to get everyone in that first HOF class photo. I’m at 6/10 (have Cobb). The story goes Cobb was too cheap to stay in Cooperstown and didn’t make it in time for the photograph.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Beautiful set up!

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by J-Yo

With that being said YES I would like to own one someday and my goal is to get everyone in that first HOF class photo. I’m at 6/10 (have Cobb). The story goes Cobb was too cheap to stay in Cooperstown and didn’t make it in time for the photograph.

The version I've heard is that he was still mad at Landis over the Dutch Leonard stuff and didn't want to be in any photos with him so he intentionally showed up late. Cobb was on a cross-country trip with his children that included shows in NYC, it's unlikely he was balking at the cost of one night's stay in Cooperstown.