wax packs with signed cards which ones

[strike-in]

Hello
I was thinking about rolling the dice.
What years and brands of baseball wax packs were sold with a chance of getting a signed card?

What year and brand of baseball cards are the best to buy, with the greatest probability of getting valuable cards?

The way things are now are very different from when I was a kid.
It's like gambling now with the grading thing.

I'm into the so called junk years, because that is what I grew up with.
I also like the weird misprint and error cards.

Thank you in advance for your input and advise.

Greg

[Topnotchsy]

Signed cards have been inserted into packs quite commonly for over 25 years now (the first signed cards were roughly 30 years ago, and I would probably look to 1996 for when it started becoming more common though different people would have different dates for when they see it as coming more common).

The choice will (at least in part) depend on the kinds of autographs you are looking for. Many sets focus on younger players and prospects, while other sets more frequently have modern stars. There are also sets with signatures from players who have long retired.

It is exceptionally difficult to try and predict future value. Rookie cards tend to be quite valuable for players who become big stars, but the success rate for even top baseball prospects is very poor. Most of the older players who are still signing have been signing quite a bit over the past few years for the card companies, and it seems unlikely that any will be all that valuable in the future.

Cards signed by Ohtani, Trout, Judge etc are popular and relatively valuable. They are usually some of the most difficult hits in a set. There are sets such as Topps Sterling with hits in every pack, but a box is over $1000. Stadium Club has two autographs per box and boxes are roughly $100 each, though often the autographs are of lesser names.

Hope this helps a bit. There's a lot going on.

Edit: Adding some more. Note that the landscape has changed quite a bit in the last 2-3 years. During COVID a million people and their mother got into collecting. Base cards and sets that were never all that valuable went crazy. There were other changes as well. For many years, the most significant card (for a modern player) were cards from the first year that they had cards made by a company making MLB cards. This was almost always Bowman/Bowman Chrome and Elite. Bowman Chrome was by far the most valuable. Cards the year that a player was a rookie in the MLB were irrelevant.

Around 10 years ago, MLB made a rule defining a rookie card as a card from a player's rookie season, and creating a rookie logo. Earlier cards were define as prospect cards. For a few years, no one cared about MLB's designation, but with the influx of collectors in the last few years, people who never knew the accepted approach to 'rookie cards' took the definition from MLB and ran with it. At this point, prospect cards (from Bowman Chrome in particular) are quite valuable, but for the first time, cards from a player's rookie season are very in demand. It remains to be seen if this shift will remain permament.

Another change that has occurred. It used to be that a player's rookie autograph card, regardless of the set, was almost always worth more than any other rookie cards that weren't signed. Over the last few years, a pattern from other sports (where autograph rookie cards are valuable, but there are other releases that are often more valuable even without an auto) has hit baseball.

One more change has been the influx of grading companies. It used to be that there were 3 primary companies. PSA, BGS and SGC. PSA was #1 but BGS was pretty close. Recently a ton of new grading companies have come out, some gaining real traction, and BGS has lost a lot of its luster. (I don't know whether this is due to a drop in their quality, or if it is marketing or another factor, but BGS falling has been very surprising to me at least. BGS 9.5's and 10's are still valuable, but in general, BGS has taken a big hit.

[bigfanNY]

If junk wax is your thing then 91 Upper deck with Heroes or Ryan is good choice. And score with Franchise cards.. Signed cards by Mantle Musiel and Yaz.. Either way Good luck in your hunt..
Jonathan

[strike-in]

Thanks much for the information.
I really enjoy opening up packs, it like mining.
You strike pay dirt or fools gold. But mostly fools gold.

I'm really liking the weird misprint cards
The case I got with all the misprints and the Nolan Ryan with no back really got me into that type of card.