SGC & PSA Grades: Actual vs Expected

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

In my line of work, we often take a retrospective look back at our actual financial results against what was expected or predicted. I've recently taken a similar approach to grading results; that is, determining the delta between the grade I expected to receive vs. the actual grade given, in this case, by SGC. Perhaps you do something similar?

Certainly the results show the subjectivity in grades assigned, but overall, I would hope things would net to zero, that is, I'd win some and lose some, roughly the same amount in each case. To summarize the process, add up the grades as values that you expected to receive and then add up the grades as values that you actually received. Compare the two totals.

Example: send in three cards, you expect a mint-9, a nm-7, and a gd plus-2.5. You expect a TOTAL of 18.5 in grade points. If you get back 18.5 points or more, even if the actual grades are different by item, you are pretty happy. If your results are nm-mt-8, exmt+6.5 and vgx-4 you are generally happy because, although the grades expected were lower on two of three, the last "made up for it" and you got back 18.5 total points still. Obviously, this still leaves room for disappointment on individual items.

Do you view grading this way? FYI over my last several years' submissions to SGC I expected 1,134 points on 227 cards and got 1,128 or 99.5%. I can live with that even though my returned grades were different 36% of the time. I would like a better hit rate (64%) on the number of cards I got right, but I can live with the total points given. Make sense? Other approaches to grading results?

Here's a card I was pleasantly surprised with...(expected a 1.5 due to heavy crease)

[BobbyStrawberry]

I think this way too. One thing that I've noticed (with my cards and others') with SGC is that their overall grading has gotten waaay tougher. (Moreso than PSA, imo.)

[butchie_t]

I just received 6 cards back from SGC and I expected/hoped for more 9 grades (I got one.). The one card that I did expect a lower grade on came in right around where I thought it would (a 5.5).

However, I am relatively ok with the grades I received over all. I do feel that SGC is grading harder than they have in the passed. I don't see this as a negative thing. But the bar has risen as to getting the higher or highest grade from them on cards. IMHO.

[parkplace33]

Great topic and I do look at it this way.

But I also take in account the value of the card. Harder to take the hit of a PSA7 (when you expect an 8) on a $1000 card than on a $100 card.

Nice Fatima btw.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

I just received 6 cards back from SGC and I expected/hoped for more 9 grades (I got one.). The one card that I did expect a lower grade on came in right around where I thought it would (a 5.5).

However, I am relatively ok with the grades I received over all. I do feel that SGC is grading harder than they have in the passed. I don't see this as a negative thing. But the bar has risen as to getting the higher or highest grade from them on cards. IMHO.

True Butch, and this is the exact OPPOSITE many were forecasting with respect to grading, say 15 years ago. Beckett came on the scene hard, and they were grading more leniently. Many of us thought that SGC and PSA would start to give out better grades, if for no other reason than to attract business and give submitters a better ROI (return on the grading investment). But it seems the opposite has happened with SGC and PSA - they each want to be known as the toughest grader in the business! All I know is its hard to get a 10 on modern cards, and differentiating between a 2.5 and a 4 on prewar is a complete crap shoot!!

[GasHouseGang]

I've read a lot of complaints lately about how harsh the SGC grading has gotten. There have been a lot of new graders hired recently so maybe that has something to do with it?

[fkm_bky]

SGC is definitely much more stringent in their grading. I don't know if I am happy about that or not. I like accuracy, but also I feel they're doing it just to be the tough guy on the block. I would be VERY leery crossing any of their older slabs over. I would bet in a lot of situations you'd lose 2 to 3 grades on it. They're still the best slabs around and I'll continue to use them for grading, but hopefully they balance themselves a bit. Right now it's too far towards a discerning eye.

Bill

[BobC]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Great topic and I do look at it this way.

But I also take in account the value of the card. Harder to take the hit of a PSA7 (when you expect an 8) on a $1000 card than on a $100 card.

Nice Fatima btw.

Exactly!

Who really cares if all my $100 cards came in exactly with the grade I expected, or maybe even a grade above, but my $50,000 card came in a grade or two lower? It unfortunately is almost all about the money.

[jcmtiger]

I thought this would come back as a “9”, but no. Lol

[JollyElm]

These 'Collectorisms' come into play here...

197. Graded Exchange Rate
The pursuit of a mathematical equation to forever solve vexing problems such as, “If a PSA 6 usually sells for X amount, how much less should I pay for the same card in an SGC 6 holder?”

See also: Whifferential (in beta testing) - the advanced formula that takes into account what grade you’re convinced your card will receive, in order to determine what (much lower) number it will actually receive.

See also: Onomapopeia - the litany of curses that flies out of your mouth the moment you find out what horrible grades your cards received.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

These 'Collectorisms' come into play here...

197. Graded Exchange Rate
The pursuit of a mathematical equation to forever solve vexing problems such as, “If a PSA 6 usually sells for X amount, how much less should I pay for the same card in an SGC 6 holder?”

See also: Whifferential (in beta testing) - the advanced formula that takes into account what grade you’re convinced your card will receive, in order to determine what (much lower) number it will actually receive.

See also: Onomapopeia - the litany of curses that flies out of your mouth the moment you find out what horrible grades your cards received.

How about Grading Recidivism: cracking a slab open in order to resubmit a card, convinced that this time the grader will get it right!

Love these sayings….

[JollyElm]

177. Boomerwrangler
A person so angered by the grade his card received, that he immediately cracks it out and resubmits it right back to the place it just came from in hopes of receiving the higher grade it deserves.

See also: Boonerang (informal) - having a card regraded and it actually comes back at a higher number.

[butchie_t]

Anything in that directory called “damn the A”

Still irks me….