Michael Jordan 86 Fleer RC: Is it time to buy, sell, or hold?

[iconsportscards]

Anybody who pays attention to basketball cards knows that prices on Jordan cards have been skyrocketing (again). We saw this in April of 2020 after The Last Dance documentary aired, and we are seeing it again here in early 2021. From right around the beginning of December to early February, sale prices on PSA graded Jordan rookies have more than tripled, and gone up as much as 5x on some of his other earlier Fleer issues.

The question I pose is this: Where is the peak? And are we there yet? Is it time to buy, sell, or just hold the cards we already have? I would be interested to hear some thoughts on the matter.

[Econteachert205]

If I had more than 1 of any issue I Might sell the lower grade example. Otherwise I am in the hold camp unless you absolutely need the money. That’s my opinion on Jordan.

[Exhibitman]

You can't time this bubble any more than any other. If the card has appreciated dramatically and you are concerned with leaving the profit on the table, which it sounds like you are, pick a price, sell it and don't look back. if it goes up more, great, your buyer won't do a charge-back on you.

[Gorditadogg]

As JP Morgan once answered when asked what he expected the stock market would do:

Fluctuate.

Hope this helps.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

As JP Morgan once answered when asked what he expected the stock market would do:

Fluctuate.

Hope this helps.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

About as helpful as this

[iconsportscards]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

You can't time this bubble any more than any other. If the card has appreciated dramatically and you are concerned with leaving the profit on the table, which it sounds like you are, pick a price, sell it and don't look back. if it goes up more, great, your buyer won't do a charge-back on you.

Thanks for the reply. The bubble factor is definitely something I'm a little concerned about. Generally I buy to sell, and try to have whatever I've purchased back up for sale within 3-12 months. In this case, I'm toying around with the idea of making more of a long term investment with Jordan's RC, something to put away for several years and use towards a college fund or something like that.

[Exhibitman]

Long term investment? That means you have to be as cold-blooded and objective as a Vulcan in analyzing things. There are thousands of the Fleer RCs out there. PSA pop is 4,540 cards with new ones added every day. Hundreds for sale at any time. Demand is crazy right now and that is driving prices up but will that hold long term relative to other potential investments? I would rather have multiple Star Jordan RCs than a Fleer right now. They have surged in value but the Star RCs still sell for a fraction of the Fleer card and have a much smaller population. If PSA ever decides to grade them, they will have a massive surge in value for that alone. Starting from zero today I think the Star cards have better potential for % increases than the Fleer card.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Long term investment? That means you have to be as cold-blooded and objective as a Vulcan in analyzing things. There are thousands of the Fleer RCs out there. PSA pop is 4,540 cards with new ones added every day. Hundreds for sale at any time. Demand is crazy right now and that is driving prices up but will that hold long term relative to other potential investments? I would rather have multiple Star Jordan RCs than a Fleer right now. They have surged in value but the Star RCs still sell for a fraction of the Fleer card and have a much smaller population. If PSA ever decides to grade them, they will have a massive surge in value for that alone. Starting from zero today I think the Star cards have better potential for % increases than the Fleer card.

On what do you base the statement that the 101 sells for a "fraction" of the Fleer now? Have you seen very recent sales of the 101? An 8 just sold in the 30s I believe. 37 in fact.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Michael-Jor...oAAOSwi9RgBNyD

And a Fleer 8 just sold for 15.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-fleer-...p2047675.l2557

I think you have to compare grade to grade and can't include the Jordan 10s in the analysis, but I guess if you do then it's true that no Star is selling for those crazy dollars, if indeed the Fleers actually are.

[Exhibitman]

I didn't say card #101. There are several Jordan Star cards that year and the others are a fraction of the price of #101. Again, if we are talking about the better potential rather than current most valuable I would rather have the cards that collectors haven't quite taken in yet. As the #101 is driven out of range for most collectors they will turn to the other cards and run them up as the next best things.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I didn't say card #101. There are several Jordan Star cards that year and the others are a fraction of the price of #101. Again, if we are talking about the better potential rather than current most valuable I would rather have the cards that collectors haven't quite taken in yet. As the #101 is driven out of range for most collectors they will turn to the other cards and run them up as the next best things.

Adam I guess to my mind only the base issue, the 101, is a RC. I think of the Court Kings and the 195 and 288 as rookie year cards but not RCs. So that's why I thought you were talking about the 101 only.

[Exhibitman]

No problemo. Just spitballing over what might have the biggest % increase over time. If I knew I'd dump my entire bankroll into it and wait.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

No problemo. Just spitballing over what might have the biggest % increase over time. If I knew I'd dump my entire bankroll into it and wait.

If Nat Turner overrules Joe Orlando and says grade them, oh my.

I still really love the Court Kings which even though it's flying still seems relatively cheap to me, being his very first issue and a great looking card.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If Nat Turner overrules Joe Orlando and says grade them, oh my.

I still really love the Court Kings which even though it's flying still seems relatively cheap to me, being his very first issue and a great looking card.

That 5 x 7 Court King is my favorite Jordan card but too big, esp. in that dinner plate of a Beckett slab.

if PSA starts on some of the cards it has refused to grade, wow, will there be a feeding frenzy.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

That 5 x 7 Court King is my favorite Jordan card but too big, esp. in that dinner plate of a Beckett slab.

if PSA starts on some of the cards it has refused to grade, wow, will there be a feeding frenzy.

Interlake is oversize too but those are going bonkers.

[Econteachert205]

I like the 5x7’s even in the dinner plate slab. I think for collectors with smaller collections they aren’t so much a burden and display really well. Those hideous prism jewel stickers are worth more than most star issues. I understand the low pop numbers but man.

[Peter_Spaeth]

...

[Exhibitman]

Another image I really appreciate:

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me, the 195 may be the best looking of the rookie year cards, even though it's typically found off center unless PWCC is selling it.

[hauntedcomputer]

My gut would say sell if I bought to sell. Any card I buy specifically to resale, i have my price in mind and when I get it, I don't look back. As Exhibitman said, no one can time a bubble and also you can open eBay at any time day or night and have dozens of Jordan rookies to purchase. That will certainly be true in the future as well, so it's not like you will never have a chance at another one.

Most of the vintage basketball I've sold in the last few months, I've been thrilled to double my money, so if they triple or go 5x, I don't care, because it could easily have gone the other way. It's fine with me if the next guy is able to make some money, too.

I've yet to see a convincing reason why "prices will only go up."

[Econteachert205]

Im definitely looking around for stuff to sell but I’m pretty much diamond hands with my star Jordan’s. The demand is always going to outweigh supply on these with production numbers of only 5k and global world demand for basketball very strong.

[Exhibitman]

#195 I can't get past that stray arm.

The Gatorade card has always appealed to me: Bulls uni, with hair, has that 'MJ' expression.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

Im definitely looking around for stuff to sell but I’m pretty much diamond hands with my star Jordan’s. The demand is always going to outweigh supply on these with production numbers of only 5k and global world demand for basketball very strong.

I dunno. If you have the cash there are a lot of them out there. Nowhere near as many as the Fleer but still a lot of them, at least relative to many prewar baseball issues (my skewed frame of reference).