Making sense of Nolan Ryan's stats and a belated hello

[moogpowell]

Hello! First post from a long time reader. In looking at investor/collector sentiment based on auction sale results, message boards, etc., among modern vintage players it appears that Ryan regularly ranks among the top five most in demand along with Rose and Henderson etc. I recognize he has geographic appeal having played in Texas, California and New York. And the Ventura piñata-fest shouldn't be underestimated in so far as legendary image-making is concerned for Ryan.

I also recognize that he is in the 300 win club with 324 wins and that he is the K king with 5,714. But he also led the league allowing the most walks in eight seasons and never won a Cy Young award (while underrated but somewhat kooky Steve Carlton has won 4 Cy Young awards). And over 162 games, Ryan averaged a 14-13 record. Granted, he played on teams with crappy offense and his career ERA of 3.19 is mighty respectable.

Is the strikeout an overrated glamour stat? Or not? If you have 3,000 hits you essentially are guaranteed a place in the HOF (I think a fair indictment of our adoration for bright shiny numbers) whereas for pitchers we don't make note of any shiny numbers aside from 300 wins. Perhaps the W is overrated (though recent statistical emphasis has diminished its standing making it look like the diner who wipes meat sauce off his cheek with his sleeve without considering that a dash of water - or wine - will blast the problem to oblivion).

Of course prices reflect popularity and demand. Warren Spahn is incredible and underrated but he (I hate to say it) of irregular angular proportions lacks the dreamy eyes of circa 1968-1969 Johnny Bench and will/may likely never have his "true value" discovered.

I recognize that the Ryan rookie is THE key rookie of the 1960s but based on empirical analysis and recognizing that Seaver is a high-number, I would rather have a Seaver rookie, especially as I think he was overall better than Ryan. In a long-winded way, I wonder if the "smart" decision is to sell Ryan and buy Seaver. It need not be relegated to the rookie. I also think that Steve Carlton cards are undervalued compared to Ryan. But I get it. Card prices reflect popularity and demand. Mantle may not have been the best but he captured hearts. And that underscores that we are humans, not AI bots who coldly process data.

I think Frank Robinson cards are underrated and that to a lesser extent so are Jim Palmer cards (yes, I am an Orioles fan but still...). I like Joe Morgan, Schmidt, Bench (all of whom are often considered the best at their respective positions) as well as Carlton.

[aronbenabe]

While I agree with most of what you’ve said, particularly about the under-appreciated players such as Spahn and Frank Robinson, I don’t believe Ryan is overrated in the slightest...you may have omitted a few more stats that the flame-thrower accumulated;

Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax are the only two pitchers inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame who had more strikeouts than innings pitched.

Nolan Ryan is the only Major League Baseball player to have his number retired by at least three different teams: the Angels, Astros, and Rangers (not counting Jackie Robinson whose number was retired by Major League Baseball for every team).

Nolan Ryan is the all-time leader in no-hitters with seven, three more than any other pitcher. He is tied with Bob Feller for most one-hitters, with twelve. Ryan also pitched eighteen two-hitters.

Maybe lesser acknowledged pitchers deserve more accolades from those who know the game...but 27-season Ryan was in a league of his own. Just one man’s opinion.


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[thecomebacker]

G.O.A.T.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by moogpowell

Hello! First post from a long time reader. In looking at investor/collector sentiment based on auction sale results, message boards, etc., among modern vintage players it appears that Ryan regularly ranks among the top five most in demand along with Rose and Henderson etc. I recognize he has geographic appeal having played in Texas, California and New York. And the Ventura piñata-fest shouldn't be underestimated in so far as legendary image-making is concerned for Ryan.

I also recognize that he is in the 300 win club with 324 wins and that he is the K king with 5,714. But he also led the league allowing the most walks in eight seasons and never won a Cy Young award (while underrated but somewhat kooky Steve Carlton has won 4 Cy Young awards). And over 162 games, Ryan averaged a 14-13 record. Granted, he played on teams with crappy offense and his career ERA of 3.19 is mighty respectable.

Is the strikeout an overrated glamour stat? Or not? If you have 3,000 hits you essentially are guaranteed a place in the HOF (I think a fair indictment of our adoration for bright shiny numbers) whereas for pitchers we don't make note of any shiny numbers aside from 300 wins. Perhaps the W is overrated (though recent statistical emphasis has diminished its standing making it look like the diner who wipes meat sauce off his cheek with his sleeve without considering that a dash of water - or wine - will blast the problem to oblivion).

Of course prices reflect popularity and demand. Warren Spahn is incredible and underrated but he (I hate to say it) of irregular angular proportions lacks the dreamy eyes of circa 1968-1969 Johnny Bench and will/may likely never have his "true value" discovered.

I recognize that the Ryan rookie is THE key rookie of the 1960s but based on empirical analysis and recognizing that Seaver is a high-number, I would rather have a Seaver rookie, especially as I think he was overall better than Ryan. In a long-winded way, I wonder if the "smart" decision is to sell Ryan and buy Seaver. It need not be relegated to the rookie. I also think that Steve Carlton cards are undervalued compared to Ryan. But I get it. Card prices reflect popularity and demand. Mantle may not have been the best but he captured hearts. And that underscores that we are humans, not AI bots who coldly process data.

I think Frank Robinson cards are underrated and that to a lesser extent so are Jim Palmer cards (yes, I am an Orioles fan but still...). I like Joe Morgan, Schmidt, Bench (all of whom are often considered the best at their respective positions) as well as Carlton.

I agree with you about almost everything (except Carlton).

Joe Morgan could be the most underappreciated player at his position anywhere, both in baseball history and especially card values

[G1911]

Agreed. K's don't win games when you are also setting walk records and giving up runs. None of his boosters like it acknowledged alongside his K crowns and no hitters that not only did he walk a lot of batters, some years he walked more than twice as many as the #2 walk pitcher in the league. 1977 for example, he walked 204 batters. Jim Palmer was second in the league, with 99. He lost a ton of games this way.

A pitcher's value is a combination of winning (best judged by ERA adjusted for context, I think) and longevity/reliability. Ryan is a great pitcher for lasting 27 years and that inning count. But he was not actually dominating in the context of winning games or not giving up runs, when looked at for the totality of his career. A 112 ERA+ is really low for a HOFer, and far below anyone else considered an 'inner circle' Hall of Famer. He simply was not that great at a pitchers primary job, winning ball games (and I'm not even holding his .526 Win Loss record against him, he can't control his teams offense).


As a 2nd series 1968 card, the Ryan rookie is one of the easiest 60's cards to locate with a very high print run. It's also ugly (and I like the 68 Burlap design, but the split rookies are ugly pretty much every year). I haven't picked one up yet to finish my set because that much money for an overrated ugly rookie seems absurd to me to do. I too would much prefer the high number SP'd 67 Seaver over the Ryan that must have, at least, 20 copies for every Seaver there is. As a collector and not an investor, I'd rather have the 66 Jim Palmer over either of them; it's an actually good looking rookie card of another great hurler of the same period. I'd rather have the tougher high number 69 or 70 Ryan than the 68.

[bobsbbcards]

Welcome to the boards, and nice post!!

[Vegas Cards]

Gotta have some pics to go with the discussion

[Kutcher55]

Nice comments. I agree with you about the Ryan RC. Huge pop count. I suppose it’s one everyone “should” have in their collection but it’s never been a huge target for me. Arguably one of the 25 most famous cards in the hobby so there is that.

As for Ryan himself, very unique career. Probably not as effective as Seaver or Carlton but he owns the all time K record and chicks dig strike outs. He also has seven no hitters, threw the ball as hard as anyone in MLB history. Not sure if he owns the all time official mph record but he used to for quite some time. And yeah he kicked Robin Ventura’s ass.

Here’s the other thing about Nolan Ryan - he was a good looking dude compared to say, Tom Seaver who was more stocky. I’m convinced Nolan Ryan loved posing for baseball cards and that makes him more desirable to collectors. Some of his cards have tremendous imagery. In particular the ‘71 Topps, ‘72, ‘74, ‘76 and ‘80 issues are all just awesome looking baseball cards. Some guys just have the “it” factor.

That’s my 2 cents.

[moogpowell]

Thanks for the kind and well considered responses. A few more thoughts on Ryan. What I find most admirable about Ryan as a player is his longevity, playing 27 years, his fearsome disposition and competitive spirit. Also, someone tweeted that Nolan Ryan’s ERA was 3.09 the year the Beatle's White Album came out in 1968. It was 2.91 the year Nirvana released Nevermind in 1991.

His popularity straddles vast geographic and chronological swaths. From the ‘60s to the ‘90s and playing in Texas, California and New York he has fans from all over so his collecting appeal makes sense. I just maintain that as a player he is likely overrated and if not objectively then definitely relative to others mentioned here.

I will be the first to say though that his cards are the best looking in the aggregate of any player I can think of. Not just because he is a handsome fellow but his action shots are consistently great to look at. A few come to mind instantly like 1974 and 1980 among others mentioned below.

The seven no-hitters are incredible but does that record really mean much? A no-hitter, as remarkable as it is, adds up to a single win. As for all-time leader in strikeouts, again, amazing, but what IS the importance of a strikeout? How is a strikeout say better than a pop out to an infielder? The strikeout suggests dominance yet is ultimately a glamor stat that gets the blood pumping more than a pop out yet is it (materially) better if at all? And look at the dizzying amount of walks. I would much rather have Maddux, Carlton or Palmer in my rotation.

Anyway, I hardly mean to bash Ryan. I fully appreciate his appeal but for a pitcher who never won a Cy Young and was wilder than a bucking bronco on amphetamines I would rather invest in players who by my estimation offer better bang for the buck given current card prices.

[STL1944]

...and of course there is the awesome 1989 Upper Deck of him throwing a football. A football... Love it!

[D. Bergin]

Count me in the NOT over-rated crowd for Ryan.......and I don't own a single Nolan Ryan card that I'm aware of.

Walks schmalks, LOL!! Despite what your Little League coach kept telling you...........a walk is not the same thing as a hit.

Ryan, despite playing for 27 years, is the All-time leader in Hits per 9 innings allowed (not an accumulating stat).......and it's really not even close. This is a list with specialized relief studs on it, like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.

He might have walked a lot, but he kept the ball out of play and didn't give up very many HR's.

37 Games of a Complete Game 2-hitter or less is just mind-blowing. We're going to start putting starters in the HOF who don't even have that many CG's in total.

No, he wasn't as efficient as Seaver, or Carlton or Spahn but he created an excitement level and sparked imaginations and expectations unlike many others.

[D. Bergin]

Came across a really dumb-founding thing about Nolan when looking at his splits throughout his career.

He was actually more effective in innings 7-9 then he was at any other stretch of the game.

The generally accepted wisdom, is that the more often a lineup can see a pitcher throughout the course of a game, the more success they have off that pitcher.

One of the biggest reasons we see very few complete games nowadays.

Ryan, in another example of him subverting expectations, usually got stronger as the game went on. The 1st inning was easily the worst of his career. 7 through 9, the strongest.

The saying you see with some pitchers "You have to get to them early, if you want to get to them at all", was a bit of a literalism, when it came to Ryan.

This may also be applicable to other pitchers I'm not aware of.......but it really stuck out like a sore thumb to me, when looking a Ryan's stats.

Again, not saying Ryan was consistent in any way........just exciting in a jaw dropping way. Koufax, in his much shorter career, was mind-blowingly consistent from inning 1 to inning 9. Another incredible power pitcher, but with a somewhat different approach.

[Exhibitman]

Ryan needs to be put into context to understand his appeal. From 1972-1979 he was the most exciting pitcher in baseball. Led the league in K's 6 times in those 7 years, five of them over 300Ks. That left an indelible mark on the baseball consciousnesses of all the kids of the 1970s. He went back to it in 1987 with another 5 years of league-leading Ks as he went far beyond everyone else in Ks and no-hitters. That takes it to the kids of the late 1980s. Basically, two generations of collectors see Ryan as one of the most exciting, greatest performers in history. Those kids are the main collecting cohort today. No amount of statistical analysis will erase those impressions. The greatest pitching performance I ever saw was Jack Morris against the Braves in the WS. The most exciting performance I ever saw was Nolan Ryan dominating the Angels with the Rangers one game.

[Tyruscobb]

Nolan Ryan is an all-time great pitcher. Where he ranks in the pecking order is a great debate. Other posters have outlined his favorable statistics, so I’ll just point to some adverse ones.

He is the all-time walks leader. Ryan has the third most loses - almost 300. He only has the 249th lowest era. Ryan is only 20th in pitching WAR. Ryan never won a Cy Young award. Ryan only had two 20-win seasons. He never lead the league in wins. Ryan was only an eight-time all star.

[JollyElm]

I am absolutely baffled by the disdain for the strikeout. Simply put, by fanning someone, there is no 'damage' possible. A runner on third won't be able to score, runners won't advance (unless by stealing a base), etc. Putting a ball into play can lead to misplays, errors (yes, Mickey Owen, I get it), tagging up, a fielder's choice and so on. A strikeout eliminates that. Hell, if Mookie Wilson struck out, the Sox would've worn the crown in '86.

[ALR-bishop]

Welcome Moog, but it is depressing when someone shows themselves to be smarter than me right from the start.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I am absolutely baffled by the disdain for the strikeout. Simply put, by fanning someone, there is no 'damage' possible. A runner on third won't be able to score, runners won't advance (unless by stealing a base), etc. Putting a ball into play can lead to misplays, errors (yes, Mickey Owen, I get it), tagging up, a fielder's choice and so on. A strikeout eliminates that. Hell, if Mookie Wilson struck out, the Sox would've worn the crown in '86.

I think "disdain" is quite an exaggeration though.

Saying that strikeout numbers are overrated (compared to getting outs in general) doesn't mean that the value of the strikeout isn't still appreciated.

[D. Bergin]

In the very small sample size of his career, it's amazing how similar J.R. Richard was to Nolan.

Big Righties, Lots of Walks, Lots of Strikeouts, Very few Hits or HR's. He was in the midst of his best season ever when the health issues, and then the strokes hit him.

[Gorditadogg]

I am impressed with the guys who've thrown multiple no hitters and I love the pitchers who can mow them down. Ryan had a long great career. Is he a little overrated, maybe, but so what. He is still an all time great.

There are many under-appreciated pitchers and I think Pedro Martinez is at the top of that list.

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