A question about the current market

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Is now a good time to buy something like a green Cobb, or would I be better served in waiting until the current market calms down a bit? The modern card market is nuts right now, but I can't tell about the vintage market. The green Cobb appears to have been on the upswing for the last year anyway, so I am not clear on my course of action. I would be looking for good eye appeal in the 2-3 range. Thanks.

[trambo]

I keep thinking the tobacco card market will calm down at some point but have been thinking that for a year. It doesn't look like it'll slow down anytime soon if Covid-19 can't slow it! I'd also say it helps to be patient. I'm trying to upgrade my t206 set and actually need a better Green Cobb. Just can't find one that I like in a fair price range. I'll keep looking, though!

Good luck!!

[conor912]

While I don’t have a crystal ball, I do know two things. 1) blue chips cards are selling at all time highs and 2) my dad, who is a non collector and does not follow the hobby in any way, has been forwarding me articles about the hobby from major news sources and has suggested he might want to invest in cards. Those two things together indicate bubble to me. Just my thoughts. I’m sure there are many here willing to argue the opposite.

[Stampsfan]

FWIW, for the last week or so on eBay I have been getting offers on some vintage cards for amounts well under SMR. Prices surprised me and I’ve now wondered if some dealers are looking for cash.

[packs]

Buy what you can when you can buy it. There was a time when the green Cobb cost $200 and somebody figured it would come down from there too.

[hcv123]

You'd need one to properly address your question. So many factors in play. The thing that has been shocking the heck out of me is the prices some of the vintage material (particularly T206's) have been bringing at auction - really strong. Will it continue? That is the million dollar question. I can't tell you how many times I thought prices in our hobby market couldn't be sustained. I remember when PSA was getting started and I had a friend was buying any PSA 9 Clemente's he could find and spending like 5-10 times the amount raw ones were going for - I told him he was NUTS! Years later he laughed all the way to the bank Just never know.

[Farm_kid]

I like the OP's question and have been wondering a bit myself. I know I have splurged on the hobby since all the lockdown's started even as a long time collector. I now think it is the time to stop buying for a couple months and build up a war chest. Then as the lockdown reduces, the "bored-at-home-johnny-come-latelys" will lose some interest and prices will relax a bit, though not plummet.

Now that I know you are after the Green Cobb as well, I better lower my sites and go after the Cy Youngs and Walter Johnsons.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by Farm_kid

I like the OP's question and have been wondering a bit myself. I know I have splurged on the hobby since all the lockdown's started even as a long time collector. I now think it is the time to stop buying for a couple months and build up a war chest. Then as the lockdown reduces, the "bored-at-home-johnny-come-latelys" will lose some interest and prices will relax a bit, though not plummet.

Now that I know you are after the Green Cobb as well, I better lower my sites and go after the Cy Youngs and Walter Johnsons.

Go get your Cobb, and don't worry about me. I am a small fish, and need to sell off some modern to be able to make any move like that. Good luck!!

[chalupacollects]

Hold for now unless you find a good one at a good/bargain price...

Once people have pissed away there stimulus funds and find they are still furloughed or permanently cut from their jobs things will change...

Also remember most states and municipalities have delayed due dates for property taxes and the IRS has extended until July... so people are still feeling flush...

Once federal and state taxes are due on July 15th and landlords start demanding rent again and banks want mortgage payments people will start feeling pinched and start unloading...

I remember buying several huge lots from my LCS when people came in and dumped nice collections on them during 2008/2009... for real nice prices...

This recession forecasts to be a bit worse....

That's my sunny outlook for the day...

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by conor912

While I don’t have a crystal ball, I do know two things. 1) blue chips cards are selling at all time highs and 2) my dad, who is a non collector and does not follow the hobby in any way, has been forwarding me articles about the hobby from major news sources and has suggested he might want to invest in cards. Those two things together indicate bubble to me. Just my thoughts. I’m sure there are many here willing to argue the opposite.

I would tend to agree with this. Anytime people outside of the hobby (any hobby- not just cards) are hearing about it and giving advice, the opportunity has likely already come and gone. I think we are in a bubble that's going to burst sooner rather than later.

Maybe if they actually start playing baseball in July, it will sustain interest and card prices for a while longer. But as actual jobs are lost and federal/state government benefits subside, the euphoria is likely to come back down to earth.

[pitchernut]

If the rumors are correct and every adult US citizen gets $2000.00 a month for the next six months, even I might go over my budget on cards on my wish list But then again so will the prices rise jmho

[Santo10Fan]

People who never had time for their hobbies in the past finally have time to focus on them. We've all found some therapeutic value in this hobby and now others are too. The Jordan rookie card frenzy seems directly related to ESPN's work so it's no small wonder they would look to amplify that with hobby related stories. PSA 10s have moved from $20K to $50K within the span of a year. If I had one I'd be selling quick and look to buy it back on the way down with that leftover cash in my pocket.

BTW, the next big ESPN hobby-relevant is “Long Gone Summer,” about McGwire and Sosa’s quest to topple Roger Maris’s single-season home run record in the summer of 1998.

[mechanicalman]

I look at vintage prices through the lens of what's happening in modern. When folks are willing to pay $40K for Luka Doncic or $6K for PSA 8 Jordans from 1986, a T206 Cobb 3 or 4 seems like an absolute bargain in comparison.

Many people on this board are "rooting" for a correction, but I doubt it will happen anytime soon, if ever.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by Santo10Fan

People who never had time for their hobbies in the past finally have time to focus on them. We've all found some therapeutic value in this hobby and now others are too. The Jordan rookie card frenzy seems directly related to ESPN's work so it's no small wonder they would look to amplify that with hobby related stories. PSA 10s have moved from $20K to $50K within the span of a year. If I had one I'd be selling quick and look to buy it back on the way down with that leftover cash in my pocket.



BTW, the next big ESPN hobby-relevant is “Long Gone Summer,” about McGwire and Sosa’s quest to topple Roger Maris’s single-season home run record in the summer of 1998.

Thanks for the helpful comments, guys. There are a lot of moving parts in our hobby for sure. You all have made good comments.

Since you mentioned the Jordan, I quoted your post because my situation is a bit similar. I have a pair of 2011 Trouts (one 8, one 10) that I have decided to take a swing at selling. I'm really not good at this end of things, I just like to buy what I like and collect. I am not necessarily in a hurry to sell, but I would like to get a green T206 Cobb eventually, when the time is right. No rush there either.

I am not a big spender normally, so moving those Trouts would be necessary for me to land the Cobb. A buddy of mine called me nuts for trying to sell the Trouts...the 10 could be a $5,000 card the way it's going was his point. I don't know, he could be right. I told him it's not a matter of right or wrong, just personal preference.

I really like T206, especially that green Cobb. For about the last 4 years I have admired T206 but mostly just flirted with it. I have managed to pick up a few HOFers, but I see this as a chance to get a green Cobb. Someday, I would also like to get a red one and a bat off.

If our cards were only "worth" $50 a piece tomorrow instead of $3000, $5000, or whatever, would you still like your collection? That's what I ask myself and why I want to position myself to eventually get a Cobb.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by pitchernut

If the rumors are correct and every adult US citizen gets $2000.00 a month for the next six months, even I might go over my budget on cards on my wish list But then again so will the prices rise jmho

That rumor will never come true. At least I hope not.

[Bigdaddy]

Leon,

Can you somehow freeze this thread after a couple of more days and then revive it in two years? I'm sure we'll all be laughing at some of the comments here and shaking our heads in frustration at some of the others.

Is this a last chance to buy before a permanent ratchet-up or the last chance to sell at historically inflated prices? Only time will tell.

My take - despite the economy taking a massive hit, there is still lots of discretionary money out there looking for a place to park. Unemployment is at near record levels, but the stock market has already gained back over 50% of its dip from early March. And once the workforce is allowed fully back to work, we'll continue the steady trend of the past couple of years. The only place I see the possibility of a permanent correction is in the modern market where manufactured scarcity is a driving force. How many 1/1s can the market absorb?

Of course, I could be wrong.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Leon,

Can you somehow freeze this thread after a couple of more days and then revive it in two years? I'm sure we'll all be laughing at some of the comments here and shaking our heads in frustration at some of the others.

Is this a last chance to buy before a permanent ratchet-up or the last chance to sell at historically inflated prices? Only time will tell.

My take - despite the economy taking a massive hit, there is still lots of discretionary money out there looking for a place to park. Unemployment is at near record levels, but the stock market has already gained back over 50% of its dip from early March. And once the workforce is allowed fully back to work, we'll continue the steady trend of the past couple of years. The only place I see the possibility of a permanent correction is in the modern market where manufactured scarcity is a driving force. How many 1/1s can the market absorb?

Of course, I could be wrong.

You have Horse Sense Sir !!! I agree 100% with you.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by perezfan

I would tend to agree with this. Anytime people outside of the hobby (any hobby- not just cards) are hearing about it and giving advice, the opportunity has likely already come and gone. I think we are in a bubble that's going to burst sooner rather than later.

Maybe if they actually start playing baseball in July, it will sustain interest and card prices for a while longer. But as actual jobs are lost and federal/state government benefits subside, the euphoria is likely to come back down to earth.

This is pretty much the opposite of what I've experienced. Whenever I mention lately how I've gotten involved in the hobby again, everyone I know (from various walks of life) looks at me like they haven't thought of baseball cards since they were little kids.

And while there's been a decent move in a lot of prices since the shutdown began, I don't think much besides '80s basketball has been even close to bubble-like yet. Other than some exceptions like the ridiculously high-end Trout and Brady rookies, and I'm not sure how much of that is the rarity of those cards. I actually found an old SCD from April '92 the other day and was surprised how most post war vintage (around grade EX/EX-MT or lower) is selling today for the same prices as 28 years ago. The only people laughing to the bank from years ago with those are the ones who have had around PSA 8 or higher material (or the '52 T Mantle).

It has a different feel than the junk wax boom. That made sports cards a total fad for a few years, while this might be more lasting collectibles interest in general. I hope, anyway

[sreader3]

I suspect that many people who collect vintage cards, especially those willing to shell out $5K+ for a single card, are aggressively looking for alternatives to buying tech stocks at record high valuations or bonds at record low yields. So I will hazard a guess that mid-grade Green Cobb prices will rise in the coming year. Plus, if you buy one now rather than waiting for a dip that may never come, you will seriously reduce your FOMO stress level. And you will enjoy looking at it every night.

[Bobbycee]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

This is pretty much the opposite of what I've experienced. Whenever I mention lately how I've gotten involved in the hobby again, everyone I know (from various walks of life) looks at me like they haven't thought of baseball cards since they were little kids.

And while there's been a decent move in a lot of prices since the shutdown began, I don't think much besides '80s basketball has been even close to bubble-like yet. Other than some exceptions like the ridiculously high-end Trout and Brady rookies, and I'm not sure how much of that is the rarity of those cards. I actually found an old SCD from April '92 the other day and was surprised how most post war vintage (around grade EX/EX-MT or lower) is selling today for the same prices as 28 years ago. The only people laughing to the bank from years ago with those are the ones who have had around PSA 8 or higher material (or the '52 T Mantle).

It has a different feel than the junk wax boom. That made sports cards a total fad for a few years, while this might be more lasting collectibles interest in general. I hope, anyway

Sorry, but I most definitely disagree with you one one point. I started collecting T206's 25 years ago & was paying $20-$25 per card for commons (sometimes as low at $15 for VG-EX commons on Ebay) & around $125 for lower tier HOFers. Prices on T206 have now gone up multiple times over the past 25 years. So, I'd say you are way off, on at least T206's, which is a huge part of Pre War collecting.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Bobbycee

Sorry, but I most definitely disagree with you one one point. I started collecting T206's 25 years ago & was paying $20-$25 per card for commons (sometimes as low at $15 for VG-EX commons on Ebay) & around $125 for lower tier HOFers. Prices on T206 have now gone up multiple times over the past 25 years. So, I'd say you are way off, on at least T206's, which is a huge part of Pre War collecting.

I was only referring to post-war (was in the post) since I have virtually no knowledge of pre-war. Did not know that T206s have done that well in that time period though.

Interesting how much the pre-war lower grade stuff has outperformed in that period though.

I think green Cobb sales have actually flattened a bit lately. I have not seen any kind of COVID uptick at all so I would not hesitate to pull the trigger right now one bit

[bbcard1]

Personally, I think baseball cards are tracking with art right now. I have seen a lot of stuff for sale, but not a lot at prices that tempted me.

[vthobby]

Originally Posted by Gobucsmagic74

I think green Cobb sales have actually flattened a bit lately. I have not seen any kind of COVID uptick at all so I would not hesitate to pull the trigger right now one bit

Agree completely.

Peace, Mike

[phikappapsi]

My take on this hobby is that it's not an investment - do it for fun, buy what you enjoy, and spend what you feel comfortable owning something for.

that said - if I were to approach it like investing, this would be one of those things where dollar cost averaging makes a WHOLE LOT OF SENSE.

Buy consistently; over a long enough period of time, and what you overpaid for in a bubble will be more than made up for by what you got a "bargain" on in all other periods.

[Farm_kid]

I like the tone of Joe H and sreader3's posts in tandem! Both reinforce the notion that collecting is supposed to be fun and enjoyable, not totally stressful and regretful. My one caveat though is that part of the fun is the "chase", "hunt", "journey" or whatever you want to call it.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by phikappapsi

Buy consistently; over a long enough period of time, and what you overpaid for in a bubble will be more than made up for by what you got a "bargain" on in all other periods.

+1

Every time I find myself regretting the SGC 60 T206 Red Cobb I sold for a few thousand dollars before they started skyrocketing, I look over at all the signed T206 cards I paid a couple of hundred dollars for for 12 years ago. Though I love watching the values, I don't really treat my cards like an actual investment. I just collect what I love.

[Exhibitman]

Well you can blend the two. I have cards I really enjoy and cards I have because I thought they were undervalued when I bought them. The cards I really enjoy will be sold when the prices really, really become stupid. The latter are always available for whatever. In the meantime, I just enjoy them all.

Bottom line is that it is all just 'stuff', and it is always for sale at the right price. If someone comes along and offers me life-altering money for my collection I will not only sell it, I will help him load his car. I will then start collecting all over again!