At what point does buying graded become the higher risk?

[conor912]

I was emailing with a buddy today and we got to chatting about "amount of risk per dollar spent". Meaning that if a raw nrmt card sells for $20 but the same card slabbed sells for $100, which has more risk? If the raw version turns out to be bogus, you're out $20. The slabbed version has a less likely chance of being bogus, but if it is, you're out $100. The big question was, where is the tipping point? At what dollar amount (or multiplier of the raw price) does a graded card become a heftier gamble than it's raw counterpart?

[Bram99]

Originally Posted by conor912

I was emailing with a buddy today and we got to chatting about "amount of risk per dollar spent". Meaning that if a raw nrmt card sells for $20 but the same card slabbed sells for $100, which has more risk? If the raw version turns out to be bogus, you're out $20. The slabbed version has a less likely chance of being bogus, but if it is, you're out $100. The big question was, where is the tipping point? At what dollar amount (or multiplier of the raw price) does a graded card become a heftier gamble than it's raw counterpart?

Right about 3 Years ago.!!

But seriously I would expect that the graded card risk is greatest in the highest value cards. So $100 and under and mid grade commons less likely a risk IMO

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

At the point you stop using your judgement and trust the TPG's blindly.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by conor912

I was emailing with a buddy today and we got to chatting about "amount of risk per dollar spent". Meaning that if a raw nrmt card sells for $20 but the same card slabbed sells for $100, which has more risk? If the raw version turns out to be bogus, you're out $20. The slabbed version has a less likely chance of being bogus, but if it is, you're out $100. The big question was, where is the tipping point? At what dollar amount (or multiplier of the raw price) does a graded card become a heftier gamble than it's raw counterpart?

Concerning alterations, if one is including using common sense, sound judgment and a keen eye in assessing the card, and if, for the argument, accepting your 5x premium as the assumption, I believe one is safer buying lower grade raw than graded high grade.

To be candid, as far as altered cards go, you gotta be pretty stupid or oblivious if you're paying high $$ right now for high-grade cards from PCWW. How one could have confidence in what they sell is beyond me. Until they prove otherwise (which I assume they won't even attempt to, as 'say as little as possible and hope collectors forget' is their standard way), the same might be said for PSA . . . Anyone with brains and knowledge of recent news would, at the least, hold back on buying for the time being from PWCC and perhaps even PSA. Yet, we actually have people in another thread boasting how they will continuing buying from PWCC.

However, SGC, PSA and Beckett are reliable at authentication, which is an important consideration.