Mel Ott autographs

[Runscott]

Has anyone else picked up a Mel Ott autograph from the recent Hunt auctions? I wondered if they would get less expensive after all the checks they offered next month. Yesterday's auction seemed to have lower prices (if I remember correctly), so I grabbed a check cut that came with some photos that I will frame along with it. All for $300 plus the juice.

Anyone else?

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Has anyone else picked up a Mel Ott autograph from the recent Hunt auctions? I wondered if they would get less expensive after all the checks they offered next month. Yesterday's auction seemed to have lower prices (if I remember correctly), so I grabbed a check cut that came with some photos that I will frame along with it. All for $300 plus the juice.

Anyone else?

A search of historical prices at RR and HA shows a steady downward trend in Ott's autograph. Prices were a lot stronger 10 years ago.

[Runscott]

Thank you. it's always gratifying to get that single response when you've mistakenly created a thread that you think will generate some interesting discussion.

Your research indicates to me that for those of us who "have to have" an authentic Ott, it might be that time.

But, then again, who cares?

[Klrdds]

FWIW up until the hoards of Ott checks entered the market primarily thru Hunt auctions the last 2 years Ott checks were rare and commanded a premium price ; however , this dumping of Ott checks has drastically reduced the price for signed items such as checks and album pages and cuts . The prices for his vintage/ playing days full name Melvin Ott signature are still strong on album pages and 3x5s. The prices for Ott signed photos, contracts , TLS , HLS , and SS baseballs are still strong and basically unaffected by the checks entering the market. The checks helped reduce the price on entry level collecting of Ott items on checks, which are desired by most collectors but are now affordable for all basic collectors.

[w7imel]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

A search of historical prices at RR and HA shows a steady downward trend in Ott's autograph. Prices were a lot stronger 10 years ago.

I feel the autograph hobby will continue in a downward trend in the next decade. Am I the only one who feels that way?

[tazdmb]

I agree with Kevin that like everything else, price is driven by supply and demand. As for Ott, obviously the supply is increasing as his family releases more checks and other items in the market. Who knows how many more the family is still holding on to. A similar thing is happening with Dave Bancroft checks now that has family has released those to Heritage. As supply goes up, prices will continue to fall-it is an economic law.

[earlywynnfan]

Surprised none have hit ebay yet. I'm hoping to scavenge one someday.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Klrdds

FWIW up until the hoards of Ott checks entered the market primarily thru Hunt auctions the last 2 years Ott checks were rare and commanded a premium price ; however , this dumping of Ott checks has drastically reduced the price for signed items such as checks and album pages and cuts . The prices for his vintage/ playing days full name Melvin Ott signature are still strong on album pages and 3x5s. The prices for Ott signed photos, contracts , TLS , HLS , and SS baseballs are still strong and basically unaffected by the checks entering the market. The checks helped reduce the price on entry level collecting of Ott items on checks, which are desired by most collectors but are now affordable for all basic collectors.

Thanks for that analysis, Kevin. My gut feel, watching these large lots of Ott checks this year, is that they will follow the trend that the Cobb checks did. Most of you probably remember the large lots of Cobb checks that were released 8-10 years ago (my dates may be off) - the price dropped and now they are being sold individually and getting $1,000 or so each. I think the Ott checks might keep going down until they are all auctioned, but then should creep back up to $700 or so in a few years.

Obviously I'm just guessing.

[Mr. Zipper]

Originally Posted by w7imel

I feel the autograph hobby will continue in a downward trend in the next decade. Am I the only one who feels that way?

I also wonder what is going to happen as boomers age out of the hobby. Will the remaining 20 - 50-somethings dump a ton of money into pre 1940s autographs of players known primarily to die-hards? Or do they focus on the more recent household names. (Ruth and Cobb being notable exceptions.)

The "completist" collecting mindset of the boomers has not carried over to the younger collectors (in general.) This is not a good sign for the more obscure names, in my opinion.

[w7imel]

Originally Posted by Mr. Zipper

I also wonder what is going to happen as boomers age out of the hobby. Will the remaining 20 - 50-somethings dump a ton of money into pre 1940s autographs of players known primarily to die-hards? Or do they focus on the more recent household names. (Ruth and Cobb being notable exceptions.)

The "completist" collecting mindset of the boomers has not carried over to the younger collectors (in general.) This is not a good sign for the more obscure names, in my opinion.

Not sure if even the Ruths and Cobbs will be safe..

[bigfanNY]

over the past few years I have bought and sold 5 Mel Ott Autographs. Trying to find one that fits with a 500 HR display. I agree that prices of High Quality Ott Signatures is strong. By high quality I mean nice single signed pictures and balls and of course signed Cards. But multiple signed items and cuts the price is weaker. Overall as 500 HR club member I think Ott will continue to have demand.
The biggest concern I have collecting signatures is authenticity. Clearly fraud keeps many novice collectors away from our hobby niche. And while I am not a fan of signed checks I do understand that many collectors like the warm fuzzy they get from them. So I agree with Scott (Not a big surprise I agree with Scott a lot) once the market absorbs these checks they should creep back up.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Mr. Zipper

I also wonder what is going to happen as boomers age out of the hobby. Will the remaining 20 - 50-somethings dump a ton of money into pre 1940s autographs of players known primarily to die-hards? Or do they focus on the more recent household names. (Ruth and Cobb being notable exceptions.)

The "completist" collecting mindset of the boomers has not carried over to the younger collectors (in general.) This is not a good sign for the more obscure names, in my opinion.

Couldn't agree with this more. As I look at my collection now, I think "Why?" I landed a whale this year with the Ruth Check; where do I go from here? I can show Babe Ruth to my friends and they are impressed -- heck, even my wife knows him. But as I look at the HOFers I don't have but could afford, does Home Run Baker thrill me? Why would I try so hard for Sam Rice or save up for Hughie Jennings? Does anyone really care? I just got a nice ball with an Ed Walsh. So I check him off the list, put a photo on here, and he goes on the shelf. Why didn't I put that money into my retirement beach house fund or something??

I have around 500 different Negro League single-signed baseballs. Collectors right now are saying "Wow!" But do any of you want to see them all? After a couple guys with really cool stories, maybe a few true rarities, and of course Satchell Paige, you're just going to wander away.

I've hit a point where my Stuff is becoming, well, just stuff.

Ken

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

But as I look at the HOFers I don't have but could afford, does Home Run Baker thrill me? Why would I try so hard for Sam Rice or save up for Hughie Jennings? Does anyone really care? I just got a nice ball with an Ed Walsh. So I check him off the list, put a photo on here, and he goes on the shelf. Why didn't I put that money into my retirement beach house fund or something??

The way I look at it, I wasn't born until decades after Ruth, Cobb, Mathewson, etc., retired, and yet I'm still a collector of that era. On the flip side, I see guys older than myself collecting the new stuff. So it's very difficult to predict what will happen, but I don't see any reason why up-and-coming hobby enthusiasts shouldn't want to collect the players you mention.

I believe there will be cycles, just like in other hobbies. In other hobbies the first indication of a move to a down cycle is that things you could never get hold of become available. Then they become available at lower prices. Then they just don't move. I'm currently holding quite a few rare billiard cues by the old master cue-makers - cues that I never even saw for sale ten years ago. I waited and bought them cheap and now they are even cheaper. If the same happens with guys like Ruth, Cobb, Matty, Wagner, Johnson....I'll be all over it.

[whyconform]

.....Can someone find and bring about 250 Mathewson Checks to the market in a short span? LOL I could use one....

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by whyconform

.....Can someone find and bring about 250 Mathewson Checks to the market in a short span? LOL I could use one....

I don't think that's much more far-fetched than what happened with Ott. One more batch of Ott checks and I'm an owner - so far we've seen 1955-57 so 1958 has to be next.

[RedsFan1941]

thanks for all the responses and interesting discussion

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by whyconform

.....Can someone find and bring about 250 Mathewson Checks to the market in a short span? LOL I could use one....

Hang tight, I'll have a bunch by the end of the weekend.

How do you spell "Christy" again...?

[mr2686]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Hang tight, I'll have a bunch by the end of the weekend.

How do you spell "Christy" again...?

LOL...and don't forget to use a Sharpie.