2011 Topps Update Trout, to buy or not to buy

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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[Exhibitman]

If you have to ask it indicates you are having misgivings and you probably shouldn't buy it.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

I have been buying and holdng Trout for years. I have maybe around 60 updates alone. I'm glad I went in. Imagine prices if he can make the playoffs.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I have been buying and holdng Trout for years. I have maybe around 60 updates alone. I'm glad I went in. Imagine prices if he can make the playoffs.

LOL! I wish I had been collecting modern back then.

[VoodooChild]

I bought a whole run of them back then (Base, Cognac, Diamond, and Gold parallel). I still have them all raw in top-loaders and will keep them that way. Having/buying the modern shiny stuff graded doesn't make sense to me.

My two cents: I would not buy one now though, especially not a base one at the current prices. But that's just me not willing to spend that much on modern when there's so many pre-war/vintage cards on my wish list. I'd rather try and "hit" on the next big star (Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, etc.) when their first Topps RC is released.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

I bought a whole run of them back then (Base, Cognac, Diamond, and Gold parallel). I still have them all raw in top-loaders and will keep them that way. Having/buying the modern shiny stuff graded doesn't make sense to me.



My two cents: I would not buy one now though, especially not a base one at the current prices. But that's just me not willing to spend that much on modern when there's so many pre-war/vintage cards on my wish list. I'd rather try and "hit" on the next big star (Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, etc.) when their first Topps RC is released.

I respectfully disagree. We haven't seen this type of player with as few RC's as him in a while. This is a flagship card that will standout to modern collectors. I'm still hoarding and buying (even 2009 BC). I told people in Blowout last year this card will reach $1k when it was selling for $500-$600 last off-season whether they like it or not. I glad slammed but I wasn't wrong.

Personally, I hate prospecting (though I have a cool Wander Franco plate rainbow). I stick to flipping proven stars to fund my HoF PC.

[VoodooChild]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I respectfully disagree. We haven't seen this type of player with as few RC's as him in a while. This is a flagship card that will standout to modern collectors. I'm still hoarding and buying (even 2009 BC). I told people in Blowout last year this card will reach $1k when it was selling for $500-$600 last off-season whether they like it or not. I glad slammed but I wasn't wrong.

Personally, I hate prospecting (though I have a cool Wander Franco plate rainbow). I stick to flipping proven stars to fund my HoF PC.

Hey, if you got the means to hoard them then it's certainly the right modern card to do so with. When you say "so few RC's as him", what's your guess as to the population? I figured the base card would be in the tens of thousands but I could be way wrong. Does the Update Series have limited production compared to Series 1 and 2?

I don't really prospect anymore either. My thinking is that by the time their first Topps card with the RC logo is released, they've at least made the big leagues and you have a small sample size to judge from. It's not as risky as spending $500 on a bowman chrome auto of a 17 year old in low-A.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

Hey, if you got the means to hoard them then it's certainly the right modern card to do so with. When you say "so few RC's as him", what's your guess as to the population? I figured the base card would be in the tens of thousands but I could be way wrong. Does the Update Series have limited production compared to Series 1 and 2?

I don't really prospect anymore either. My thinking is that by the time their first Topps card with the RC logo is released, they've at least made the big leagues and you have a small sample size to judge from. It's not as risky as spending $500 on a bowman chrome auto of a 17 year old in low-A.

Todd Van Poppel
Ben McDonald
John Olerud
Brien Taylor
Robin Ventura
Will Clark
Jose Canseco
Kevin Maas
Greg Jefferies

Yeah, I sucked at prospecting back then. So I quit prospecting in about 1992. Imagine what the “good” rookie cards of those guys would start at today. If Canseco were a prospect today, his rookie, refractor, shimmering ice, auto, jersey, hair follicle 1/3 would sell for over 100k, considering the way he began his career. Sometimes I get tempted to speculate on a young player, but then I go to eBay, see the prices and the ridiculous permutations of colors and varieties of essentially the same card, and then my urge goes away.

[jchcollins]

I could be wrong, but I wonder if the appeal will last. What are the true production numbers for the ‘11 Update Trout? Even if not reaching “junk era” heights, I’ve got to assume there are a blue million of them. This is a card interestingly enough - where the PSA 10 price may be topping four figures, but a PSA 9 is not cheap either. What like $600-700? More? What would a PSA 7 go for? Still probably $500?

Contrast this with the 1993 SP Jeter - a card that is no doubt available in lower numbers, and unlike the Trout - is a truly condition sensitive card in grades 9 and above, what with those surfaces that scratch if you breathe on them. A 10 may be a six figure card, but a PSA 7 is still like less than $300? How do those demographics align with the Trout?

For what it’s worth, my money on an investment card between those two long term is going to be the Jeter.


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[VoodooChild]

Originally Posted by orly57

Imagine what the “good” rookie cards of those guys would start at today. If Canseco were a prospect today, his rookie, refractor, shimmering ice, auto, jersey, hair follicle 1/3 would sell for over 100k, considering the way he began his career. Sometimes I get tempted to speculate on a young player, but then I go to eBay, see the prices and the ridiculous permutations of colors and varieties of essentially the same card, and then my urge goes away.

I agree, but in this case I believe we are talking about Trout's BASE 2011 Topps Update RC and not some shimmer ice superfractor auto card.
I'm not 100% sure, but I bet I paid less than $5 for mine back when it was released and now they are are selling for $1,000. That's why I asked about the production of that card. Are there 5,000, 20,000, 50,000 or more of them out there? Let's imagine that Canseco turned into Hank Aaron and had a HOF career. Would any of his 1986 RC's (non-Tiffany) be selling for $1,000? I don't know the answer. I guess a PSA 10 would....ugh

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I could be wrong, but I wonder if the appeal will last. What are the true production numbers for the ‘11 Update Trout? Even if not reaching “junk era” heights, I’ve got to assume there are a blue million of them. This is a card interestingly enough - where the PSA 10 price may be topping four figures, but a PSA 9 is not cheap either. What like $600-700? More? What would a PSA 7 go for? Still probably $500?

Contrast this with the 1993 SP Jeter - a card that is no doubt available in lower numbers, and unlike the Trout - is a truly condition sensitive card in grades 9 and above, what with those surfaces that scratch if you breathe on them. A 10 may be a six figure card, but a PSA 7 is still like less than $300? How do those demographics align with the Trout?

For what it’s worth, my money on an investment card between those two long term is going to be the Jeter.


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I used to think I had to be a prewar collector or a postwar collector or an 80s collector or a modern collector. Truth is, I love baseball across all eras and want a representative sampling of the best I can get from all those eras. Trout is certainly part of that for me. Jeter wouldn't be a bad buy either...though he was never a personal favorite.

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[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

Truth is, I love baseball across all eras and want a representative sampling of the best I can get from all those eras. Trout is certainly part of that for me.
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Don’t get me wrong, Robert. Trout is clearly the premier player of today’s game, and if I had cash lying around to burn, I’d probably own several of his rookie cards. I’m not disparaging anyone who does, or who invests in them. I do think the card is very high for what it is, but that’s fine.




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[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Don’t get me wrong, Robert. Trout is clearly the premier player of today’s game, and if I had cash lying around to burn, I’d probably own several of his rookie cards. I’m not disparaging anyone who does, or who invests in them. I do think the card is very high for what it is, but that’s fine.




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I hear ya. It is pretty eye opening.

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[maniac_73]

I always consider buying modern but I still have PTSD from making my dad buy me a Leaf Frank Thomas Rookie thinking it was going to make me rich when I got older lol. Once people move on to the next player prices go down. The Wander Franco hype makes me shake my head, he may be a good player but the prices for an unproven 18 year old are crazy. Excuse me while I dig up my Brien Taylor cards

[orly57]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

I agree, but in this case I believe we are talking about Trout's BASE 2011 Topps Update RC and not some shimmer ice superfractor auto card.
I'm not 100% sure, but I bet I paid less than $5 for mine back when it was released and now they are are selling for $1,000. That's why I asked about the production of that card. Are there 5,000, 20,000, 50,000 or more of them out there? Let's imagine that Canseco turned into Hank Aaron and had a HOF career. Would any of his 1986 RC's (non-Tiffany) be selling for $1,000? I don't know the answer. I guess a PSA 10 would....ugh

For sure, Jason. My rant wasn’t about trout. I was addressing your second point about prospecting. I think you did great buying up Trout cards.

[sbfinley]

I can very easily see the card maintaining and even growing it's current price for several reasons.

A. It is the iconic base card of a generation and it's not available in factory sets. This is gigantic and drastically cuts down the number of copies in the marketplace. Don't get me wrong, the card isn't "rare", but base cards not available in factory form are strictly more difficult to come by. In addition, 2011 Update was an afterthought in the hobby at the time and it was the popularity of the rookie and prospect class of 2011 that made the supplemental set popular and led to increasing print runs with update post 2011. Honestly as a whole, Topps Flagship was dying until 2011 - supplanted by Heritage, Ginter, and more importantly Bowman as the faces of the market. 2011 changed that with arguably the best rookie crop in 30+, amazing looking parallels and chase cards, and interesting consumer products (Value Boxes). 7-8 years ago "1st Bowman" and "1st Bowman Chrome" were 'the' RC base to own and now it has reverted back to Flagship - 2011 is the reason why.

B. Recency bias - When iconic cards reach certain thresholds it's takes a lot to drastically reduce their value. A great comparison in value would be Griffey's 89' Upper Deck RC. The card has pretty consistently held it's value when a peak baseline was created of $300 in PSA 10. (I actually just realized it increased to a $450-$600 in PSA 10 which surprised me.) Now compare the ease of finding 89 Upper Deck unopened 30 years after the fact compared with the difficulty of finding unopened 2011 update less than a decade later.

C. The card has reached four figures for graded mint copies, and I honestly don't believe that the majority of baseball fans realize that we are watching someone who will retire as the arguably the best player in the history of the game just now enter his prime. He has played in one postseason series, rarely plays in prime time, and when he is on national television it is usually a 10 P.M. eastern start on MLB network. The average baseball fan likely sees him play live less than a dozen times a season. So what are we missing?

WAR since his 1st full season: 1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st-6th-2nd-2nd
Off War since 1st full season: 1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st
OB+ since 1st full season: 2nd-3rd-3rd-1st-2nd-1st-1st-1st
Adjusted OB+: 1st-2nd-3rd-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st

Someone else stated it before, a world series berth would explode his prices even more.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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If I didn't have one and I wanted one, I'd probably look for a midgrade example, a 7 perhaps. Those sell for $300-400, it seems.
Recent sales of raw examples range from $300-600, which is pretty incredible. 8-card packs from that issue sell for $100, while the Jumbos sell for $500.
I think the only big downside to the card is if Trout gets popped for PEDs (although I doubt Brosius' kid knows what he's talking about). It certainly isn't out of the question, just look at Cano, but I don't see the bottom falling out on this card otherwise.
And I think it's too bad that the card is so expensive, because there must be a bunch of kids out there who are anywhere from 6 to 14 years old who are big fans but may never be able to have a Trout RC because of the cost. And especially so despite it being a mass produced and mainstream issue.

[Foo3112]

Going back to the OP's question, I would say that Trout is a GREAT buy (and I wouldn't say that for really any of the modern guys). Yes, even at the $1100 price tag today. The card was selling at under $400 just over two years ago and already in his sixth season at that time. He was already a solid player. He is the face of MLB today and has always been extremely popular amongst fans and collectors. He is what I consider a blue chip. A sure thing - regardless if he makes the playoffs or wins a World Series.

As far as you not feeling safe with PSA, I understand but I will say this. I would rather have it in a PSA holder and know that at least someone took a look at it rather than have it raw and wonder two things, what's the true condition and second, if someone even trimmed that one.

I say go for it if that's what you want. If you're still on the fence about the player, then perhaps go with a 1993 Topps Derek Jeter Gold PSA 10. They currently can be had for about $1000 and I believe they will be $1,400 within two years now that he's in.

[Neal]

US175 has room to grow ... I think it could be trading at 1500 by seasons end. Crazy or not. Modern collectors are different than vintage guys. Trout is the best in the game

Plus, it is one of the best looking Topps RC cards ever made

[packs]

I would wait on this card if I were you guys. If you remember, there was a time when the 89 UD Griffey was sky high. You can now buy all the 10's you want for four to five hundred dollars.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Neal

US175 has room to grow ... I think it could be trading at 1500 by seasons end. Crazy or not. Modern collectors are different than vintage guys. Trout is the best in the game

Plus, it is one of the best looking Topps RC cards ever made

Short term it is still a good buy. Long term it is a horrible investment. Cards are always ridiculously priced when great players are still playing great. Once they start declining as a player so do their card prices.

Packs post above mine is a great example.

[dictoresno]

I think the ship has sailed when it comes to buying these. I remember three years ago they were $300-330 and I said nah too high and decided not to cough up the money for one. I should've obviously, as my uncle who just got back into collecting at the time grabbed one or two. that was the going rate on those.

then, about almost 2 yrs ago, I remember the market manipulation on these where someone from either California or Vegas was pumping them. there were like 6-8 auctions all listed at once on ebay and the final prices ended in the $600+ range and I believe were purchased by the same person. if I recall, it was suspected that the owner of them were selling and buying them back from their different accounts at high prices. this caused a stir on forums as suspicious. ever since those new "comps", they set the new market value and since then its been increasing, as far as I know, totally manipulated. I threw the towel in and decided against buying one, especially now. I think they are way artificially inflated, especially when you look at the high number of PSA 10's in the pop report and the full availability of them. they aren't scarce by any means.

not gonna say they are topped out, but way too overpriced now to buy in.

[callou2131]

No way would I touch it anymore. There are counterfeits out there that will just get better, plus tons of them in slabs are trimmed. Thats just me personally.

[mightymickof56]

Great thread. Iconic card but the talk of Trout possibly retiring as the best player of all time I think is a stretch. Trout hasn’t pitched an inning and will never materially influence the fabric of American society the way Babe Ruth has. Babe Ruth was, is and will continue to be the greatest baseball player of all time.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by mightymickof56

Great thread. Iconic card but the talk of Trout possibly retiring as the best player of all time I think is a stretch. Trout hasn’t pitched an inning and will never materially influence the fabric of American society the way Babe Ruth has. Babe Ruth was, is and will continue to be the greatest baseball player of all time.

It's absolutely a stretch. No doubt Trout is an unbelievable 5 tool player but he's no Mays

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by mightymickof56

Great thread. Iconic card but the talk of Trout possibly retiring as the best player of all time I think is a stretch. Trout hasn’t pitched an inning and will never materially influence the fabric of American society the way Babe Ruth has. Babe Ruth was, is and will continue to be the greatest baseball player of all time.

Trout has ZERO chance of being considered the best player ever. He has had a great 8 year run but he would have to greatly improve in his next 8 years and then have a final 4 very good years to even be considered in the top 3-5.

[Johnny630]

Zero Upside Plenty Downside Don’t Buy Don’t Buy

Plays in Anaheim and I see the Angels having No Chance to be in a World Series Anytime Soon.

[aconte]

Card is moving up as we speak. A sale on COMC for $1234 just a day or
two ago.

It's a must have for the modern collector, similar to the SP Jeter and 89 Griffey.

Card has lots of upside imho.

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Trout has ZERO chance of being considered the best player ever. He has had a great 8 year run but he would have to greatly improve in his next 8 years and then have a final 4 very good years to even be considered in the top 3-5.

Only a great run? Three MVP awards, top 4 finishes 5 other times, already ranked the 5th best center fielder of all time and set to begin his 10th season at 28 years old. I'd say he's one of one if you ask me. Especially since he's playing against all competition, not just players allowed to compete and doing all this at a time when the game has become the most specialized it's ever been.

[Neal]

to the top .....

[Neal]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Trout has ZERO chance of being considered the best player ever. He has had a great 8 year run but he would have to greatly improve in his next 8 years and then have a final 4 very good years to even be considered in the top 3-5.

Who is in your top 5? Just curious ….

[Topnotchsy]

Trout has been historically good to this point in his career. Comparable to guys like Mantle and Mays for the time he has played. It's too early to tell whether he will sustain that level for long enough to truly be in the conversation for a spot in the top 5 All-Time or not. Mays won an MVP at 34, and was still extremely valuable at 40. Trout has a lot to do before we can judge him from a career perspective.

Regarding the particular card (2011 Topps Traded), I don't think there's a comparison that anyone can point to confidently.

For comparison:
1989 UD Griffey - 72K graded/3800 PSA 10
2011 Topps Update Trout - 7000 graded/4000 PSA 10

It is clear that there will be many times more 2011 Trout PSA 10's than Griffey UD. The Griffey UD was considered a premier card; it's popularity grew before the internet exposed how many copies existed (and made them easily accessible) and it's still worth far less than Trout. Trout has been a better player, but he is not near Griffey's popularity, and has other cards (particularly 2009 Bowman Chrome Auto) that are far more significant and rare. And of course, they are earlier, from an iconic set and signed.

People also forget that prices are driven by speculation and excitement. No one wants to imagine Trout having a decline like Griffey or Pujols has had, with year after year of declining performance until it is almost hard to remember the glory days. But there's a chance that happens. And even if Trout is very good, once he slips from being the "best in the game," people will look elsewhere.

Griffey and Pujols are two examples, but on the mound Clayton Kershaw might be a useful comp. He was historically good for a decade, and still has the highest career ERA+ for any pitcher. He won 3 Cy Young awards, and probably should have won a 4th.

This past season he was 16-5 with a 3.03 ERA, and yet his cards have dropped quite a bit, and no one views them as a great investment. He's faced some injuries, but he also faces the inevitable short attention span of collectors. Like Trout he has already sealed his ticket to Cooperstown even if he retires tomorrow.

I've been around long enough to know that you can't time when a card will decline, and there are enough references one can make to always argue that a card will go up further (or will decline). I believe that people like Gary Vaynerchuk promoting cards as an investment has helped, and a new wave of collectors (more found on Facebook and I'm sure other more hip social media sites than on message boards etc) have played a big role in driving prices, and in the changes in what people are looking for.

All that said, I think it's an extremely risky investment (if you are looking at it that way). At the same time, if he continues to play at an elite level, I'm sure there is more room for it to increase before Father Time does his magic.

[infielders3]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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So... did you buy it? A PSA 10 sold for $2,380 yesterday.