Oh, come on. Mark Buehrle's Hall of Fame chances?

[the 'stache]

ESPN keeps stooping to new lows with their baseball "journalism".

Now, David Schoenfield has written an article talking about Mark Buehrle's Hall of Fame chances. According to Schoenfield, Buehrle, who has 200 wins at age 36, "can pitch into his 40s like Jamie Moyer."

I don't care if he pitches into his 50s. This guy is not a Hall of Famer. Have we really devalued Cooperstown this much?

Buehrle has been a good pitcher throughout his career. In 2007, he threw his first career no hitter against the Rangers. Then, in 2009, he threw a perfect game against the then Devil Rays.

Ok, so he's had two awesome games. And, 200 wins is fairly impressive.

But 1,780 strikeouts in 3,090 2/3 innings pitched is not. He was 5th in the 2006 American League Cy Young Award vote. He's never received a single Cy Young vote in any other year. And while wins is, as we've already noted, not the be all end all metric for pitchers, since Schoenfield is bringing up his 200, it should be noted he's won 19 games in a season once--in 2002, his second full season. He's won 16 games three other times--2001, 2004 and 2005. He's not won more than 15 in the last nine years, and the 15 games he won in 2008 is the only time he's won more than 13 games in the last nine years. The last nine years, he's 114 and 99.

Look at his record the last six years:

2009: 13-10
2010: 13-13
2011: 13-9
2012: 13-13
2013: 12-10
2014: 13-10

Not to mention, his career 3.81 ERA would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Red Ruffing, at 3.80, is the current high water mark.

200-152, 3.81 ERA, 1,780 K's.

That is NOT a Hall of Fame pitcher. I don't care if he pitchers another 10 years. It's an absurd suggestion that he is.

[the 'stache]

My more in-depth post on ESPN in response to his article:

David Shoenfield is the worst writer on ESPN. It's absurd to even suggest that Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, or might be. And comparing his WAR to Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford? LOL, really?

Buehrle has received Cy Young votes in one single season in his career. In 2005, he was 5th in the A.L. vote. Again, he's never received a SINGLE Cy Young vote in ANY other season he's pitched. Excluding his rookie year, where he started only 3 games in 28 appearances, he's pitched 14 other full seasons. Not one vote.

He has a 3.81 ERA, which would be the highest of any Hall of Famer. And 1,780 strikeouts in 3,090 2/3 IP. Really?

Do I need to put up Whitey Ford and Sandy Koufax's numbers, and compare them?

Whitey Ford 2.75 ERA
Sandy Koufax 2.76 ERA
Mark Buehrle 3.81 ERA

Buehrle has basically been a .500 pitcher the last six years, winning 12 more than he's lost. Yes, I know that win/loss record is not the best indicator of a pitcher's performance. But you opened the door by broaching his 200 wins.

Sandy's last five years (1962-1966) were arguably the greatest in modern history. He went 111-34 (.766 win pct) with a 1.95 ERA and 1,444 K in 1,377 IP. His ERA + was 167. His FIP was 2.00, and his WHIP was 0.926! Sandy Koufax, of course, won three Cy Young Awards in the National League in a four year period, and was third in 1964 when he had a monster season with a 1.74 ERA (which led the N.L.).

Whitey's best 5 year period? He had two great five year periods, depending on what you like, stats wise. Wins? 1961-1965, he went 99-38 (.723 win pct) with a 2.85 ERA, and 892 K in 1,299 IP. His ERA + was 127, and his FIP was 2.99, and his WHIP was 1.156.

But, arguably, his best five year period was 1954-1958. He had a win-loss record of 78-33 (.703 win pct) with a sexy 2.50 ERA, and 632 K in 1,038 2/3 IP. His ERA + was 147, and his FIP was 3.25. His WHIP was 1.200. Whitey Ford didn't have any big strikeout years in the seasons I cited, 189 in 1963 being his best. His career high of 209 came in 1961 when he won the American League Cy Young Award. He went 25-4 with a 3.21 ERA. He was voted third in the A.L. Cy Young in 1956 when he led the league with a 2.47 ERA. Whitey led the league in wins three times, and in ERA twice, including an eye popping 2.01 ERA in 1958.

To compare Buehrle's WAR to Whitey and Sandy is just laughable. First of all, Koufax does have "only" a 53.2 WAR, and Ford "only" a 53.9 to Buehrle's 58.2. But I don't trust WAR for older players, for seasons long ago. Something just doesn't smell right. I think it's a good metric for current seasons, but it does not work correctly when looking at older players. If we believe that WAR is equal, then we have to accept that Mark Buehrle's 2007 season was better than Whitey Ford's 1961 season, and it's not even close.

Ready for this?

In 2007, Buehrle was 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA, 115 K in 201 IP. He had a 130 ERA +, and a 4.26 FIP. His WHIP was 1.259. He threw 3 complete games, and 1 shutout.

In 1961, Whitey Ford was 25-4 with a 3.21 ERA, 209 K in 283 IP. He had a 115 ERA +, and a 3.14 FIP. That 3.14 FIP was the best in the American League. His WHIP was 1.180. Ford threw 11 complete games, and 3 shutouts.

Their WAR? Ford had a 3.8 WAR, and Buehrle a 6.1!

Now, Whitey Ford had a great team behind him. We all know the 1961 Yankees had a spectacular offense. Maris and Mantle were just the start. But Whitey won the Cy Young for a reason. That FIP shows that he was really good, the best in the league, independent of the fielding behind him.

Mark Buehrle not only didn't win the Cy Young, he didn't even get a single vote for the award.

Now, the rules have changed. The mound might have some deviation. But you can't tell me that the Cy Young winner was worth 2.3 fewer wins than Buehrle and his 4.26 FIP. No way. Put Buehrle on the '61 Yankees, and he'll win 16 or 17 games. But he's not the Cy Young Award winner. Meanwhile, Whitey Ford would be a great pitcher in 2007.

There is NO comparison between Ford and Koufax, two great, Hall of Fame pitchers, and Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has 9 shutouts in 462 career starts. Two were no hitters/perfect games. Koufax threw 40, and Ford 45.

Buehrle shouldn't even sniff the Hall. If you want to start a Hall of Very Good, go for it, and vote him into that. But Cooperstown? Mark Buehrle does not belong in the same place with Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson, Cy Young and Greg Maddux, Bob Gibson and Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton and Tom Seaver.

[clydepepper]

As always, we are fortunate to have you on the board, Bill. I saw the ESPN headline, but did not waste my time reading it. Your take on Buehrle is much more accurate.

Being 'an old lefty' myself, I have a natural appreciation of all things 'wrong-handed' and thus have long been a fan of pitchers like Buehrle.

But he doesn't belong in the conversation with Glavine and the other HOF lefties. I would place him a peg below Moyer and more like the later-career version of Frank Tanana...an entertaining pitcher for sure, but a .500 pitcher after all is said and done.

Still, I enjoyed watching his perfect game and his miraculous defensive play a few years ago that gave the world 'The Buehrle Meter' is still firmly affixed to my memory when many more important things have migrated elsewhere.

Let's put him in the Hall of Good Memories instead.
-

[1952boyntoncollector]

Andy Pettite is way over him and Andy has an uphill climb

[Econteachert205]

I'd let in David wells or Kenny Rogers first lol.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

As always, we are fortunate to have you on the board, Bill. I saw the ESPN headline, but did not waste my time reading it. Your take on Buehrle is much more accurate.

Being 'an old lefty' myself, I have a natural appreciation of all things 'wrong-handed' and thus have long been a fan of pitchers like Buehrle.

But he doesn't belong in the conversation with Glavine and the other HOF lefties. I would place him a peg below Moyer and more like the later-career version of Frank Tanana...an entertaining pitcher for sure, but a .500 pitcher after all is said and done.

Still, I enjoyed watching his perfect game and his miraculous defensive play a few years ago that gave the world 'The Buehrle Meter' is still firmly affixed to my memory when many more important things have migrated elsewhere.

Let's put him in the Hall of Good Memories instead.
-

Firstly, thank you, Raymond, for the compliment. I'm just a big baseball nerd, and I have a lot more free time than anybody else here. Combine that with a compulsion to read baseball stats, and you have instant conversations. There are people here far more knowledgeable than I, though I am working to close that gap. I am working hard to gain a better understanding of these newer metrics. They fascinate me, especially because they are a still evolving methodology. I think these statistics that have been created by Sabermetrics help us to gain a better understanding of, and a new appreciation for, the game we all love. So, though there's a lot to learn, and I want to be evenhanded, what I discover while researching is fun, and often surprising. And it's truly interesting how I'll be looking at one player, and consider something when looking at them that I did not consider when looking at somebody else. So, occasionally, I end up reversing myself, somewhat, on the other player.

We always need to remember how rare a great lefty truly is. I've grown to love the movie Million Dollar Arm, and the lefty with "juice" is referred to repeatedly with reverential tone. I think Buehrle is a gamer. He's a guy I'd love to have on my staff. He's a consistent pitcher, and he's a workhorse. Fourteen years in a row he's started at least 30 games. Now, certainly there are better lefties, but how good are they if they're out for the year nursing an arm post Tommy John surgery? Their potential is great, but that potential's not helping the team then. Buehrle learned how to battle over and over, pitch well, and not get hurt. That earns big time points in my book.

Not to be overlooked, too, is that he really helps his own cause by being a very good fielder. 4 Gold Glove Awards is nothing to sneeze at.

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Andy Pettite is way over him and Andy has an uphill climb

Agreed. Pettite is an interesting guy statistically. You look at his second season in the Majors, and he's a Cy Young runner up. Ok, he won 21 to lead the AL. 1996 marked the beginning of the new Yankee dynasty. They won the World Series that season, though they won only 92 games. But the guys were all there. Pettitte in his second year. Jeter was a started for the first time. Mariano Rivera was in his second year.

You look at Andy's numbers, and a 3.87 ERA seems a little high. But in two starts, 3.2 IP, he gave up 18 earned runs. The rest of the season, he had a 3.16 ERA. That's why pitchers, especially, who are limited to 30-35 starts, can often have misleading numbers. Smaller sample size, and one terrible start can skew the whole season.

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

I'd let in David wells or Kenny Rogers first lol.

Both those guys had the tools, they were just inconsistent. I came to Texas the same time Kenny Rogers started out with the Rangers. I thought he was going to be the bomb. He was pretty good. Real good at times. Even though he won 219 games, he was never as good as I thought he would be.

Wells was a solid pitcher, too. Hard to believe that Rogers and Wells started almost 1,000 games between them. They were around forever.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Andy Pettite is way over him and Andy has an uphill climb

Pettite is a doper and has no shot. Buehrle at least has a shot, a long long shot. He'd have to turn into Koufax or Ford for 3-4 seasons to be in the discussion. Buehrle was a very good pitcher on some pretty bad teams, but a Hall of Very Good, not a Hall of Famer.

The better comparison would be to Don Sutton who was an above average pitcher on some really good teams and managed 300+ wins by pitching forever and making the HOF.

Sutton WAR 67.4 WAR 7 34.0 JAWS 50.7
Buehrle WAR 57.5 WAR 7 35.8 JAWS 46.6

Sutton was a 4 time AS and finished top 5 in CY Young 5 years in a row with a 3rd place his best finish

Buehrle 5 time AS and only 1 top 5 Cy Young finishing 5th

Sutton 324 wins 3574 Ks 3.26 ERA 108 ERA+ 3.24 FIP 1.142 WHIP
Buehrle 200 wins 1780 Ks 3.81 ERA 117 ERA+ 4.11 FIP 1.284 WHIP

The only thing on Buehrle's resume that hints at HOF outside of those two games is his ERA+, which is already very marginal and likely to drop to below HOF standards in the twilight of his career.

Baseball Reference's most similar players are Bartolo Colon, Frank Viola and Milt Pappas, all Hall of Good, not Hall of Fame players. I can see the standards for the HOF dropping in the future, but not to the level of Buehrle, barring a miraculous turn around in his late 30s.

[clydepepper]

Bill- I also enjoyed Million Dollar Arm.

Picked these two up shortly after seeing the movie:

LHP SINGH .jpg RHP PATEL.jpg

[Paul S]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

I'd let in David wells or Kenny Rogers first lol.

I'd let in Wells for the simple fact he wore a game-used Ruth cap during game time Shame on MLBfor making him take it off

[the 'stache]

I'd forgotten all about his having Ruth's cap. I've ready he's a big collector, but I think he has very select tastes. Ruth is about as good as one can get, though, methinks.

MLB is getting like the NFL. No fun. So what if he wore the Bambino's hat? It was Major League issue. Just happened to be MLB issue from about a century ago, that's all.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Bill- I also enjoyed Million Dollar Arm.

Picked these two up shortly after seeing the movie:

Attachment 186338 Attachment 186339

Raymond, those pictures you attached aren't showing.

Edit: nm, they are now. I had to log in again. Weird, since I first logged in about 3 minutes earlier.

[packs]

That writer should be ashamed of himself. Tim Hudson is a far superior pitcher (though right handed) and he is not looked at as a HOFer.

I would rather vote in Jamie Moyer than Mark Buehrle.

[Jim65]

Its a complete joke that Bert Blyleven and Andre Dawson got in, Buerhle would be a bigger joke but at this point, I wouldn't care if Rafael Santana got in.

[bbcard1]

Bert Blyleven isn't Sandy Koufax, but neither is Ted Lyons a Bert Blyleven. The HOF was devalued a long time ago.