What to make of Graziano?

[Exhibitman]

The MHCC 1948 Leaf Graziano closed cheap: $23,477.51 for a PSA 4.

PSA's pop on Graziano is six: two "A", one 4, two 5 and one 6.5. SGC has 2, an "A" and a 50. I am not sure if any were cross-overs. I know of at least one raw card.

I believe that the one sold yesterday has transacted three times on record: it sold on Ebay in 2007 for $27,600 and sold for just under $18,000.00 some years before that.

So what, if anything, do we make of the price?

It is a manifestation of the decline of prices generally since 2008?

Was it format? I think MHCC screwed up by doing that "set or individual card prices whichever is best" thing for the 1948 Leaf set. If I'm going to emotionally commit to drop $20,000+ on a card I don't want the auction then contingent on a set sale price I can't control; it's just a big turnoff.

Was it the auctioneer?

Was it just an oversaturation of these cards in the last year or two? In November 2011 Legendary sold an SGC “A” Graziano for $29,625.00. A PSA 5 went for $41,125.00 in the 2011 REA auction. The best specimen, a PSA 6.5, sold privately through Legendary in 2011; I don’t know the price. Legendary had another Graziano in 2012, an SGC 50 that sold for $29,875.00.

[D. Bergin]

I think the Set/Individual format really does a card like this a disservice.

Boxing is a niche, and the Graziano is a card that will attract non-boxing collectors who don't really give a poof about the rest of the set.

Then again, it's also one of those types of cards with pretty wild price swings every time it's offered. It all depends on who's in the market for that particular card at that particular time, in that particular auction format.............just like most auctions.

So, in summation. "I don't know" is probably the best answer I can give.

[Griffins]

Anytime I see a set vs. singles type auction I automatically pass it by. It's a bad format and I won't feed into it. I'm sure I"m not alone on this.

[aaroncc]

I agree with Dave. "It all depends on who's in the market for that particular card at that particular time, in that particular auction format.............just like most auctions."

Not so sure that there are many people willing to pay that amount for that card at any time. But as always it only takes two to drive up the price. Don't think there is a set price for that card. I guess its safe to say any Leaf Graziano under 10K is a good deal. But the huge price swings when available makes this card unpredictable. Being a 19th century collector I could find something else I would rather spend my money on. I think the card is ugly.

[Exhibitman]

I've not heard of one sell for under $20K in the last decade except in a wholesale purchase from a layperson. Recent sales, as best as I can work it out:

October 2012 MHCC: $23477.51 [PSA 4]
May 2012 Legendary: $29,875.00 [SGC 50]
Spring 2011 REA: $41,125.00 [PSA 5]
Spring 2011 Legendary ?Private Sale? [PSA 6.5]
November 2010 Legendary: $29,625.00 [SGC "A"].
Winter 2007 Ebay: $27,600.00 [PSA 4]
2001 Mastro: $17,901.00 [PSA 4]

[esquiresports]

Seeing altered versions of this card - trimmed and colored - pulling $30K - I didn't think we would see this card go for less than that. I think there are a few reasons for this, all of which are of course just guesses.

1. It's almost November. Even people with $25K to drop on a card might start thinking about the holidays, travel, gifts and related costs. Take a look at the HA prices. A lot of steals.

2. Heritage Auctions closing right behind this one. Heritage had a huge two-part catalog with a lot of high end cards to choose from. Some people may have saved money to spend at HA. I know I held some back (and then missed the deadline!)

3. The auction company. No slam on Mile High - they get some nice cards. But I think HA, REA, SCP, Legendary and others may pull in more deep pockets bidders.

4. Auction format. Agree that set or lots alternatives are not fun to track.

5. The complete was in the lead. For almost the entire auction, the set bid was winning, and it may have turned off bidders. Are you going to break out a calculator and add up the 50 cards to determine whether you nights have a shot at an individual card or are just wasting your time?

I love this card for several reasons, particularly because it is from a major issue, a numbered set, isn't an error, isn't a variation, isn't a test issue. It's a legitimate card from a big name set and less than 10 have ever been discovered. That means less than 10 complete sets are possible. I'm pretty much a post-war guy for now, but cannot think of a post-war example that fits this fact pattern. Would love to discover a lost Topps card one day. Closest I can think of is 2006 Topps Alex Gordon, but several hundred of those cards exist.

[Exhibitman]

"I love this card for several reasons, particularly because it is from a major issue, a numbered set, isn't an error, isn't a variation, isn't a test issue. It's a legitimate card from a big name set and less than 10 have ever been discovered. That means less than 10 complete sets are possible. I'm pretty much a post-war guy for now, but cannot think of a post-war example that fits this fact pattern. Would love to discover a lost Topps card one day. Closest I can think of is 2006 Topps Alex Gordon, but several hundred of those cards exist."

As far as I know the recent A card was hand cut but not colored.

The Hocus Focus cards fall into that class except for the major set part. There are only a few known examples of them.