Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyruscobb
I fear that demographics may severely affect vintage’s supply and demand equilibrium over the next 10 years and tank prices. We are potentially at the peak. Baby boomers are the reason.
Unfortunately, over the next 10 years, baby boomer deaths will significantly increase. Their heirs will liquidate collections and flood the market. This will increase the supply side. This is inevitable.
The question is whether the demand side will have enough buyers to support price levels. Right now, baby boomers are primarily supporting the demand side. They are retired and have nice disposable income levels. Baby boomers are buying legends, such as Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc., they grew up watching and legends, such as DiMaggio, Ruth, Williams, etc., their fathers grew up watching and telling them about.
So, will the next generation have this same love of vintage to support prices?
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Not sure if I agree with the nostalgia regarding Mantle, Mays, etc. being all that important.
Look at all the collectors here of guys like Wagner, Cobb, Plank, Speaker, and so on. Few people alive today saw these guys play, so there's zero nostalgia effect from personal experience with these players. No reason why collectors of the future won't also eagerly seek Mantle, Mays, and Aaron in the same way.