Quote:
Originally Posted by whitehse
I can certainly see everyone's point in that shilling affects everyone in some way. I guess seeing some of these same names over and over again bidding mainly on high end items allowed me to come to the conclusion that this is a "rich person" problem because of the dollars that were being tossed around. After all, paying the 20% buyers premium on an item that was not sold was more than I am sure I spent in the last two years on my collection and not something I could afford to do.
I just am still not convinced that a low level collector like me has even been touched by this issue and that is probably because what I collect is not something that is in high demand and therefore, probably not as likely to be shilled.
But please know, I do understand your point and it remains to be seen how this will effect collectors like me.
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The other way it can affect collectors like you (And me too!) is in how the prices of the expensive stuff set the prices for the less expensive stuff.
The pricing for cards is primarily controlled by demand. Rarity can create demand, but within some limits. If it was otherwise, I'd be a lot closer to wealthy than I am.
So lets say a card is a certain price - like maybe a 52 Mantle. The first one I saw in person cost the dealer who had it around 900, either a record, or close to it at the time. And it was pretty nice. Since I had little money I hoped to someday "settle" for a beat one for maybe 100. Or, roughly 10% of a really nice one. And that ratio seems to hold since 1980, a fairly nice one a 6 or so is 30,000+ and a beater around 3-4000.
Now lets assume there's been rampant shilling at one major auction(Pretty easy assumption) - and that the prices they supposedly got are part of what drives the other auctions results. How much of the higher prices since 1980 are real? certainly not ALL of it, and certainly not none of it. Since the shilled results would add to each other over several years, lets say 25% of the current price level is from the shilling. By extension, the price of the "A" card is also inflated by 25%. So it should really be maybe 2500-3000.
AHA! you say. "But I still can't afford one so it doesn't affect me"
Well, the price of the Mantle helps drive the prices of the other high numbers by increasing the popularity of the set. And those prices in turn help drive the prices of the rest of the set. (And the rest of the 50's sets too. )So if we look at maybe half of that effect being seen in the lower numbered cards then the average commons that sell for $10 should really sell for 8-9. And that is at a level that affects pretty much everyone.
If you don't mind paying 12-25% more for cards, I've a whole bunch I'd happily sell at 25% over the current prices.
Steve Birmingham