Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsagain74
During the mid '90s, I met countless "shoeshine" everyday people who thought they were Wall Street experts, and others (who also noticed that) that were using the same kind of Kennedy Sr. quotes to assume that stocks were ridiculously overvalued at the time.
There's a lot of selective memory used sometimes in remembering how accurate such indicators are. The reality of markets is naturally often a lot more complex and extremely difficult to predict.
For cards at the moment, I think the key to the vault is: "will this be just another junk wax fad, or will the renewed interest in the hobby be more of a mainstay"?
I admit that I really wonder what the answer might be to that. And if that were to go wrong, also fear for the possible downside of the endless stirng of PSA 9s and 10s of '80s - modern superstars that are worth 10 times what they were a year ago.
But I'm not gonna try to outguess the future too much
|
The shoeshine boy reference is more of an economic signal in terms of level of risk taking and level of demand over stocks for pieces of paper with registration numbers (stk certs)
I do find it funny as much as Wall Street have been waiting for the retail suckers to buy their large cap tech stock, they are getting derailed because these investors are instead speculating in Bitcoin, micro cap (weed, solar, ev...) names and SPACs. Now these same Wall Street egos are watching Bitcoin in angst. (We were so hesitant to put gold in our mandated portfolios before Bitcoin, let along pulling the trigger on Bitcoin now). If you look at proclaimed pm’s on Twitter, many don’t hold Bitcoin, but they are definitely following it on their follows...
But to bring back to topic, I find the analogy of prewar (to appease bird sticklers) versus modern to gold versus Bitcoin. The former is natural scarcity versus manufactured scarcity. The former is historically stable, but the latter is more in fashion. And most obvious, the former is significantly underperforming the latter. Time will tell.
I’m overweight prewar and gold...