Originally Posted by BobC
Well, that is where the troll reference may become applicable. LOL It would seem he deep down must really get into these back and forths at some level, unfortunately, maybe more so than just the desire and interest in discussing such topics themselves that we typically end up doing on here from time to time. In other words, maybe he comes on sites like this looking for the arguments because that is what his psyche wants and needs, and doing so over the internet, he can stlll remain removed, somewhat anonymous, and thus feel safe. Which is kind of the definition for being a troll when you think about it. LOL
For example, it was much earlier in this thread that he appeared to get frustrated when people pushed back and didn't simply accept what he was saying, or the implied or overt insults. So he clearly and emphatically stated he was done with this, which pretty much every intelligent, normal person would take to mean he was done with responding and interacting with everyone on this thread anymore. Had he actually stuck to his word, I wonder if he wouldn't have garnered a little more respect from the crowd on here. But instead, it was just a few posts later, and he was right back at it without missing a beat. So does that point to some deeper, psychological urge or need, who knows?
On the positive side, even though I simply ignore and no longer waste my time reading his posts, in looking at what others are posting ang saying in this thread, it appears he's finally admitting the he may have made same errant statements and that his statistical assumptions and conclusions may not in fact always be infallible. And if I'm right, good for him. He does have and makes some very intelligent and interesting points and comments. It's just that he doesn't seem to realize, or doesn't want to admit, that as good as statistical analysis can appear to be, in the end it is nothing more than a tool to hopefully allow someone to more accurately predict an outcome, like who's going to win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, when their ability to predict outcomes like the winner of a Super Bowl begins to have some success, such people may then try to extend that tool to possibly use it for something else that is not a totally objective question, like deciding who the greatest lefty pitcher of all time is. That is clearly not an objective question, and has no absolutely certain outcome we can then actually measure the effectiveness that some statistical analysis may have in predicting it, at least not like knowing there will be an actual Super Bowl winner. And also extremely important (and maybe the MOST important thing of all), everyone knows, AND AGREES, on exactly what the definition of and how you decide on who the Super Bowl winner is. In the case of the greatest lefty of all time, we haven't even begun to decide on the correct definition of "greatest" yet, let alone the actual measures we will then use to POSSIBLY decide an answer, if it can even be done. And untill that has been determined, everything is just someone's opinion, INCLUDING someone's statistical analysis.
And in regards to referring to statistics as just a tool.........
A statistician's wife has been bugging him for weeks to replace a light fixture on the ceiling, and he's finally going to get around to doing it (And without her having to pay him to do so, go figure!). Unfortunately, he needs a screwdriver to remove a few screws to get the job done, but doesn't have one. Well, he's up on the ladder already, so before getting down and then having to drive all the way to the store to buy a screwdriver, he goes digging around in his pocket and finds his penknife, and promptly uses that to remove the screws and complete the task. So he gets the job done using a tool that wasn't actually meant for what he ended up using it for. But he took a chance on guessing it might work and got lucky, like he got lucky to also just happen to have the penknife in his pocket when he most needed it to begin with. But before you go applauding the statistician for his fine work in completing the given task, and he triumphantly goes riding off into the sunset on his noble, white steed, with his beautiful and now forever grateful wife astride behind him, I have to finish the rest of the story.
Turns out that for maybe what little the statistician knew about tools, he knew even less about electricty. For while using his penknife to remove the screws and then replace the light fixture, he accidently knicked some wires in the ceiling and unknowingly got them crossed. So once he had the fixture replaced, he joyously called his wife to come and flip the switch to see the new fixture working, and what a great job he had done. Unfortunately, the knicked and crossed wires created a short, which blew out the fuse box, and resulted in having to call in an electrician to fix everything, at a very hefty cost. And as a result, our woebegone hero ended up sleeping on the couch for the rest of the week. So much for our happy ending!
And as for statistics always being able to measure and actually predict human nature and outcomes, go read some Asimov!
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