If he was clean, 1-4 range.
But he wasn’t clean. If his career ends after 1995 before he goes to Toronto and apparently starts using, reigniting and turning his career around, he has an astounding 144 ERA+, but only 2,700 innings and a 192-111 record. He chalked up another 2,100 innings at essentially the same performance level while using.
Steroids aren’t magic, they won’t make any pitcher able to do what Clemens did. He probably doesn’t deserve to have his entire second half wiped out completely. He probably doesn’t deserve full credit either, the steroids shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. I don’t know how to account for a middle ground here on any reasonable basis that isn’t completely arbitrary. I would probably put him 10-20th, on that arbitrary balance.
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