[z28jd]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Since there is usually a drop off between the ballots made public before the official results are announced and the ones made public later or never made public, it looks like it will be very close for Rolen and Helton. My guess is that Helton doesn't make it this year, and Rolen will either get in or miss by a few votes.

Rolen missed by 47 votes last year. While he is trending well with the few first-time voters, he has only picked up eight votes from people who didn't vote for him last year, with 35.8% of the votes accounted for right now. That pace is going to need to get a lot higher soon, otherwise we are looking at him missing by about 20-25 votes.

As I said, the first-time voters help, but they also add to the amount of votes he needs to get in, so their help is minimal. He needs more of the people who don't release their ballots online to switch to him. He only received 34% of the votes with the people who didn't release their ballots at all last year, and that group is about 20% of the voters. Public voters had him at 69%, though it also went down with the people who waited to release their ballots until after the results are announced.