Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronnie73
This is an interesting post. Mainly because most of us here collect true vintage items that are rare to begin with. Reguardless of player, the cards are old, rare, and were never meant to be a way of making money or seen as an investment, when they were produced. Because of that, the values tend to rise over a period of time. Now switch over to new products. In the 1970's, there was value noticed, but not really investment yet. In the mid 1980's, investment started to be an reason to purchase something. Early 1990's the realization of over producing cards, crashed the market, and nearly all the newer collector/investors disappeared. The old timers kept tradeing vintage. Nearly 25 years later, many of the original collector/investors from the mid 1980's returned and kinda repeated history. Except more money was involved and newer cards were shiney, serial numbered, auto'd, and patched. You could have two cards from the same set that had different players, but both serial numbered to 99, both autographed, and both with a jersey patch. So, both cards have the same rarity. But one sells for $3 and the other sells for $300,000. I get it that one player is better than the other, but these companies are basically printing money. And now they are finding out that the auto's and patches are fake. The modern collector/investor people are nervous and noticing a crash on a huge percentage of modern cards. Some don't even see a future in cards, but they also don't own anything before 1933. I saw this coming a few years ago. Because I experenced it in 1985-1992. I would determine print run numbers over the last few years. This February of 2022, When the base topps card of Wander Franco was selling for $100+, I did some math and determined that the final print run for that card was going to be in the 1.5 to 2.0 million cards. With those type of numbers, you can tell the value will eventually tank and many "investors" will lose money. Also, cases of new type cards selling for $4000-$6000 and they get the "case hit". I'm seeing case hit cards from a few years ago for ten dollars, and auto's in the one dollar box. When those cards were the reason for spending thousands of dollars. And now the fake products made by Topps and others, the big crash will happen again. Real Soon. But original true vintage will be fine. We might see a bump or ripple downward for a little while, but things will be ok for us. Also, I've been telling all my shiney collector friends to dump their Trout cards. Don Mattingly was and still is my favorite player. His cards took a hard hit because of his back problems and I lost money on many of his cards, but I was a collector and had no intension of selling any of his cards for profit. I even buy his new shiney cards.
|
This is a very good take Ronnie and I agree totally.
I understand, and don't blame dealers at the national for marking up their product in order to pay the overhead cost of being there while trying to make a little money for their effort. Heck, I wish there were still brick and mortar stores locally just to visit and see what's new. The overhead was too much, and it is so easier to sell on line. I hope the national never gets to that - don't you?
I've been collecting since the late 50s. I didn't really know that I was "Collecting" baseball cards when I was a kid. Of course, there weren't any methods for us kids to communicate except at school or at social events. I never had a home telephone until I was in the Marines and returned from Vietnam - got married - had children - and tried to make a living. My weekly allowance when I was a kid was .10 - not 10 dollars - 10 cents. I remember buying packs of 1963 Fleer baseball instead of Topps because Mr. Taylor at the grocery store would sell it to me cheaper than a pack of Topps. I cut cards from the back of cereal boxes and tried to trade them to kids for "real" baseball cards. I've attached a picture of a card I personally cut from one of those boxes. I still have all those cards I collected as a kid. One of my best friends that I grew up and went into the Marines with had a tremendous collection. His mother threw them out because they were taking up too much room in the closet. I was lucky - mine were still in a cigar box. Enough rambling about my collecting, and I will get on point.
If you're making a living at buying and selling cards, be concerned with what you buy and whom you collect. Vintage is always there and pretty much maintains it's value unless you drastically overpaid to begin with. There is no fear of the player doing drugs, committing murder, etc. etc. etc. You may not make a tremendous immediate profit, but you won't lose a lot in a down turn. A down turn is coming - it always does. Everyone that has collected has "lost" money on a player they thought was going to be the next big thing. Everyone has made a little money on players they had no idea they were so talented - regardless of sport. Even today's must have players; Trout, Soto, Tatis, etc. etc. None of them have won a Championship. Most often it takes 2 things to cement their legacy - a Championship and the Hall of Fame.
If you're a collector - keep collecting and enjoy the collection! Sell the cards or items that you don't covet and invest the profit into those items you do. Maybe it will bring you a little happiness and that's what it's about. There are groups of investors and business men running all over the country, buying up sealed boxes, cards, it seems like everything. However, I will tell you there are still vintage cards out there just waiting for a collector to stumble across. I still feel good when I look at those old beat up cards that I cut off cereal boxes 60 years ago.
My thoughts on the hobby over the next couple of years, with vintage defined as cards prior to 1970 (always a moving target). (1) Vintage will remain strong and pricing for "commons" will see a dramatic increase. (2) High end short prints of current players will drop dramatically unless they are in the "must have" category. (3) Card companies will continue to come up with innovative and creative ways to market and sell their cards - remember they don't collect - they sell. (4) PSA and Beckett will encounter serious problems regaining collector trust and patronage, while SGC will flourish because of their admirable performance over the last 2 years. At some point, dealers in sports cards will just say "no" to the reprehensible treatment they received by some grading companies. (5) Card collecting and investing will wane, but will continue. And when an individual athlete puts on a performance that's so great it stuns the world - the market will again flourish.