My final summation, and I've enjoyed the discussion, is that I disagree you can know spike points or much else in real time )2014 looked like a spike point in real time I am sure), but I think you are buying the right things and therefore you will do fine over time. But I think that will be a function of what you own, not of your timing in buying. Read Eugene Fama if you have not.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/
He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.