Quote:
Originally Posted by peanuts
I like your premise – two points I would make to narrow the math a bit more.
- Rare:Common ratio differs between the two. Alpha magic is 1100:15900 (1:14.45). Base Set boosters are 11/pk, with a 1:7 ratio. Right away, we're looking at double the relative supply of rares. Admittedly, I don't know what the ratios are on the starter decks/theme decks that were also sold, so that could affect the actual ratio.
- Market volume in relation to total supply. Pokemon is a hot market right now, so it's safe to assume that float is fairly high.
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Both good points. My math was just a rough estimate I used but I wouldn't be surprised if it holds up pretty well, eBay seems to be the great equalizer on most things collectible. And while Pokemon may be much hotter right now, Alpha Magic cards have been somewhat hot for a longer period of time so one could argue that more of them have made them into the market for sale than First Edition Pokemon, which right now appears to be coming out of people binders and collections at a fast pace. Also, I am surprised that no one (or maybe they have) has dug out some images of Wizards of the Coast print sheets sheets, and if they were printed like Magic cards were in their arrangement allocation. Being able to get an estimate based on how they were printed I think would help.