Quote:
Originally Posted by Dpeck100
On February 28th there was a thread started on this main page about the stock market decline and I was one of the loan bulls on the card market. I remain as bullish as ever.
People just don't understand how many new buyers have entered the market. The number of watchers on marque items have exploded and bid lists are as long as ever.
There has been a fundamental shift in the market and while cards that have gone up 700% in a few months will naturally correct there are other cards that have been in steady long term up trends and have broken out and keep making new highs.
You are not going to see every card go back to even close to where they were and some will just keep going much higher.
I collect wrestling and prices on legends have just exploded. Just when you think they can't go any higher they do. One of the more common sets is the 1985 Topps WWF set. A Hogan 9 has gone from roughly $50 to $300 with numerous sales in the past few months. Will it hold the peak? Maybe. Maybe not but it isn't going back to $50 under any circumstances.
If you look at just the fundamentals of the market and forget about what you think the cards should sell for, it is the strongest the market has ever been in the ten plus years I have been super active. Nothing goes cheap. Anything that anyone thinks should have some value goes at full price or higher. It is what it is.
Those predicting some massive collapse were the first ones last year to say the end was near. Only to be so wrong it is not even funny. Prices that were supposed to collapse for high grade cards did nothing but explode. How anyone can take their predictions seriously is beyond me.
The bottom line is people like cards and will always like cards and when you have a dramatic shift in the demand curve and there isn't an ability to have a dramatic shift in the supply curve you have exploding prices. Then once prices rise people want the stuff even more and you have the perfect storm.
I have always said that prices are predicated on bragging rights and once something is perceived to have value the interest increases and prices go even higher. This is exactly what is taking place.
Will a Jordan 1986 Fleer have a correction of some kind? Sure but it isn't going to get even close to retracting its recent gains and longer term is only going higher.
The bull market is only gaining steam and prices just keep going for so many different cards. Gary V as I stated has certainly helped the market and has brought in so many more eye balls through Twitter but he isn't the only thing driving it. People see rising prices and love hard assets and this game is far from over.
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I think you may have hit it on the head here man! Well stated. Thanks for the thoughts.