Quote:
Originally Posted by swarmee
I expect a plummet. There are a lot of sneakerheads (Collectors of basketball shoes) and bitcoin kids and gamblers who are getting in on baseball cards because they're following baseball card savants like Vegas Dave, Gary Vaynerchuck, and other people you've never heard of on Twitter. Most of them are buying up card segments, then telling their followers what is hot, and then seeing their cards skyrocket when those newbies blindly trust what they're being told.
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I think there is a lot of truth to this. I noticed prices creeping up over a year ago. I am primarily a vintage set builder and I mainly get cards through local card shows and from Greg Morris on eBay. My rule of thumb was I'd pay 30-40% of Beckett high book for cards in EX/NM condition. I used to pick up 10 to 15 cards at a crack, from GM, sticking to that rule. Last year, I was lucky if I could get 2 to 3 and often I would strike out completely. All the other factors mentioned above certainly contribute. But, it all seemed to start with Gary V.
One example really sticks out in my mind. I am three cards away from finishing 1970 Topps. One of those cards is #550, Frank Howard. Beckett shows this card has a $8 high book value. In one recent Greg Morris auction, that card went for nearly $49. I will grant it was NM, but it's centering was 60-40 at best. That is just nuts.
I am also 6 cards from finishing 1968 Topps, one of which is the Ryan rookie card. Right now the prices are outrageous. I have a BGS 4 1956 Mantle that I could probably trade straight up for one. But, I'm more content to wait for the bubble to pop.