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Old 10-28-2014, 09:08 PM
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itjclarke itjclarke is offline
I@n Cl@rke
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: San Francisco
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Default Advanced defensive metrics, dWAR way off IMO

After watching this World Series and having previously watched the Giants win 2x WS playing very clean D, I think defensive prowess is way way undervalued by today's stats. There was a lot of discussion in a couple previous threads, and apparently are a lot of defensive stats/metrics that made great defenders- the Mark Belangers, Keith Hernandezes, and even Ozzie Smith look less impressive, even marginalized since even the best defenders were not worth a huge number of saved runs (calculated how?)... whereas anyone who saw them play and knows the game, knows in their hearts how great they were/are.

I'm not exactly sure how those are all calculated, but the 1st two innings tonight are why I think those stats miss it. The Giants hit Ventura prettyy hard in their first two innings-- Panik smashed on in the gap, Morse pounded one in the corner, etc, but Cain chased them down no problem. These weren't spectacular diving catches, but are catches many guys don't make. Who knows what happens if there's a guy on 2nd, even 3rd with 1 out in those innings, as opposed to no on and 2 out. Conversley, Giants have a huge miscue, where Peavy yells at Belt to throw home, when only play was at first. At one point it was a hit, eventually I think changed to a FC. Regardless, this is not recored as an error, but that gaffe may well have led to 5-6 more runs in the innings. Ishikawa also has a little trouble getting to some balls quickly (love the guy regardless), which maybe Cain catches, or at least cuts off quicker. Stats cannot fully measure the value of turning an extra base hit into an out (especially mentally for the pitcher and frustrated batters), and cannot fully predict how badly a potential misplay can spiral out of control (see 7 run inning).

If I'm a GM, I want fast outfielders like these Royals, and I do not for a 2nd allow defensive metric to dissuade me. Great catches, quick innings inspire your own team and can rip the hearts out of offenses... and if I'm Boch, I start Perez in left again for the same reason.

Changing topic to game 7... no predictions on winners/losers, but am totally confident the Giants put this behind them and come ready. It's just what they do. Will be an exciting night for sure.
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