[benjulmag]

I suspect the great majority of these altered card are altered by methods that CAN be scientifically detected. Assuming this is the case, then it seems inevitable to me that it is just a matter of time before a TPG emerges that grades cards scientifically. By that I mean that besides the usual subjective assessment of aesthetic appearance, there will be a scientific component that uses certain objective scientific criteria (e.g., presence of foreign dyes, chemical differences between newly trimmed borders and borders that have been exposed to the environment for over 100 years) that will make the conclusion the card has been altered a scientific fact, as opposed to a mere opinion. Once we get to that stage, I simply don't see how a card that has been shown by that method to be altered can hold its value.

It wouldn't surprise me if someone is out there now working on just such a model. True it will take millions in startup capital to build such a startup, which capital will include the need to to buy slabbed high condition cards and expose them to be altered. And true it will take a market willingness to pay the hefty grading fees such a startup would need to charge in order to be profitable. But inasmuch as we are already well into 7-figure territory for desirable sports cards, what is spending an additional 4 or 5-figure cost to ensure the card is what it is represented to be? The economic impact of that to the purchaser would be the equivalent of the BP being raised by less than one point.

And here might be the kicker. If, as has been speculated, much of the recent price rise is being fueled by funds regarding sport cards as investment vehicles and marketing them as such, then I would think in time such funds will put themselves at risk of violating their fiduciary obligation to their clients if they do not require that their sport card acquisitions be vetted by such a high tech grading method.

As to the point that there will be insufficient demand for such a high-tech grading service since what creates the demand for sports cards is the number on the slab (as opposed to the "real" condition of the card), that may be the case now. But I do not see how that mentality will be able to sustain the market once such a new TPG enters the scene and enough currently slabbed cards are shown to be altered.