Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
So what's dragging down his peak metrics, I see his WAR7 isn't even that impressive despite what certainly APPEAR to be quite a few massive years even in context? He seems to have walked a decent amount, so that doesn't seem to be the drag as it was for guys like Garvey etc.?
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One problem is his atrocious defense. Or at least WAR thinks it is pretty bad.
He led in runs once, homers once, slugging twice, OPS+ once (but OPS twice). RBI's 3 times but I think that has more to do with hitting where he did in that stacked Cleveland lineup than anything.
He crossed a 140 OPS+ 6 times. OPS and OPS+ are really his best statistic most favorable to him. The problem is tons of other players did too during that period. The 90's offense stats are so extreme at the top end that it really hurts players like Belle.
In 1993, Belle posts a 145 OPS+, .922. But 5 players in the AL crossed 1.000.
In 1994 he has a 194 OPS+, absolutely amazing. But Thomas posted a 212.
1995, again amazing but bested by two guys.
1996, again beat by 5 guys while his year looks video-game like.
1998, he leads in OPS and OPS+, but his horrible defense (at least by WAR's view) hurts and other similar offense seasons by better defensive players or playing valuable positions. WAR likes Jeter better, among a couple others, which looks kind of ridiculous to me. A-Rod probably deserved the MVP that year, but he finished 9th and Belle 8th.
I don't think Belle's WAR is that bad, he ranks above other similar players who played more than him (thinking of Juan Gonzalez first). His rate statistics are extremely good for a career, because he was done at 33, the first year he wasn't great. But my missing counting stat years and poor left field defense, his WAR ends up less impressive. Looking at things, I think it gets him pegged about right, relative to others on the whole (some specific years and comparisons, no. I'd take him over Jeter 10 times out of 10 in 1998). His best years pegs him at 5-7 something, really good all-star, but probably not he best player. Which I think is generally accurate.
He suffers in WAR7 additionally because it's WAR7 and not WAR5. Belle has 5 years over a 4.0 total. Good but not that good years at 3.4 (1999) and 2.5 (1991) are included in his WAR7. His top 5 are 7.1, 7.0, 5.7, 5.7, 4.7. Those 5 years are 30.2 war, an average of 6 a year and 75% of his total career value, even counting his negative defense. The smaller the sample size, the better Belle looks.
Personally, I think this is a good lower barrier for the Hall of Fame. Guys who were really, really, really good for a few years and guys who were pretty good and decent for a really, really, really long time. Sutton, Kaat, Belle and Oliva make for a pretty good low threshold for the low tier of the Hall. But you know what opinions are like...