Quote:
Originally Posted by packs
I think Albert Belle is going to get in. I've been thinking about it, and I don't know why the committee would choose him otherwise. Bonds and Clemens and Schilling will all get eyes on the vote. But there was really no reason to choose Albert Belle otherwise. He only lasted two official votes. That would be pretty unusual if they didn't intend to vote him in.
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Afraid you may be right. His numbers clearly show his offensive talent, and had he not suffered from early career ending injury/medical issues there is no telling what kind of final career offensive numbers he may have ended putting up. The blatant corked bat cheating is what turns it for me though. No telling how long he had been cheating like that before AND after he was caught.
And though I'm not a big, advanced metrics and statistics fan, his career WAR over a 12-year career is only 40.1. That ties him for 533rd on the all-time career WAR list. Oddly enough, current Indians player Jose Ramirez already has a higher career WAR (40.3) than Belle, and he's done that in two fewer seasons than Belle had for his career.
Meanwhile, Belle's contemporary Indians teammates, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, had total WAR numbers over just their first 12 seasons of playing MLB of 50.7 and 47.6, respectively, both significantly higher than Belle. Thome deservedly got elected to the HOF after hitting 612 home runs and putting up a 73.1 WAR for his career, putting him alone at 89th on the all-time career WAR list. Ramirez ended his career with 555 home runs, a .312 career batting average, 12 time all-star, 9 time silver slugger, two WS championships helping break Boston's Curse of the Bambino, AND a WS MVP, to go along with his 69.3 WAR putting him all alone at 108th on the all-time career WAR list. And despite Ramirez's last 6 seasons playing being mediocre at best, he still bested Belle soundly in career AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+.
The Contemporary Committee has other PED users on the potential list for HOF induction. And though still on the regular HOF ballot, Ramirez is coming up on his 7th year on it in 2023. And based on the 28.9% of votes he got in the 2022 HOF voting, I don't see him suddenly getting elected before his time on the regular HOF ballot runs out, even with Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa getting dropped off it in 2023. Based on just the numbers alone though, it would seem Ramirez is way more deserving than Belle of getting into the HOF. The idea of Belle possibly having a chance to go in before Ramirez seems ridiculous to me.
And as for Belle's name going on the Contemporary Committee's ballot, why not McGwire, or even Sosa, instead? In McGwire's first 12 seasons he put up a 42.9 WAR, higher than Belle. Belle had a higher career AVG, but McGwire bested him in career HRs, RBIs, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. McGwire was also ROY, a 12-time all-star, 3-time silver slugger, has a WS ring, and actually won a Gold Glove. Sosa, though lagging behind Belle in most all the stats where McGwire bested him, still broke the 600 career HR barrier with 609 total, outdoing both Belle and McGwire and putting him in elite, HOF worthy company.
Given what I think are superior statistics/numbers by others to Belle's, and then add in his known other off and on the field issues, I don't understand his even getting on this Contemporary Committee ballot when there seems to be better, more deserving, player options out there. His only real claim to fame is his 50/50 season, which is a somewhat obscure and esoteric MLB record at best. He's actually only tied for 6th all time, along with five other players, at 103 extra base hits in a season, way behind both Ruth and Gehrig who top the list at 119 and 117 extra base hits, respectively. Belle is just lucky in how the breakdown of his extra base hits worked out. Had just 3 of his doubles turned out to be HRs instead, he'd have ended up with a 49/53 season, which no one would really still remember and talk about today.