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Originally Posted by Snapolit1
Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.
The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.
Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.
I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.
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From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.