Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyruscobb
I fear that demographics may severely affect vintage’s supply and demand equilibrium over the next 10 years and tank prices. We are potentially at the peak. Baby boomers are the reason.
Unfortunately, over the next 10 years, baby boomer deaths will significantly increase. Their heirs will liquidate collections and flood the market. This will increase the supply side. This is inevitable.
The question is whether the demand side will have enough buyers to support price levels. Right now, baby boomers are primarily supporting the demand side. They are retired and have nice disposable income levels. Baby boomers are buying legends, such as Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc., they grew up watching and legends, such as DiMaggio, Ruth, Williams, etc., their fathers grew up watching and telling them about.
So, will the next generation have this same love of vintage to support prices?
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My generation may have loved baseball cards (and baseball) during our '80s childhood almost as much as the boomers in the '50s. So, once we are retired with that disposable income factor, I'm hoping that enough of us are still interested in vintage, at least post-war anyway (in the same manner as many of the boomers here love their T 206s and Goudeys today).
But not long after I was a kid, the landscape changed, and football and basketball became the American pasttimes. So once my gen X is gone, I'm not sure if Mantle, Aaron, and Mays will still stay so prevalent