Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred
Here's a thought -
To continue a hobby there has to be new "hobbyists" that also want to collect these cards that are now becoming less and less accessible to the average person because of price escalation.
Fans of the game will just say NO to collecting cards because how much fun is there trying to collect stuff that you can't afford and can only have a few examples.
At some point the only people that will be buying expensive cards are investors that usually have a short attention span. Then when those investors get bored or see the next investment opportunity they'll be off to investing in graded Pez dispensers. Someone is going to be left holding the bag because the smart investors will have already bailed out in time to ensure they're not left holding the $5M Mantle. Sadly the collector/hobbyists that "invested" in the cards will be crying about how much they lost when the card bubble burst.
Now it's time for someone else to write a quick paragraph on how these investors retired early because they invested wisely in cardboard images and how these values will continue to rise and entice more people into buying cardboard instead of using it as a shelter to sleep in.
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Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.
One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.