Cycles, rather than linear growth
I think you'll see continued growth in T206's, because it is such a classic set, even though off-grade examples are far from rare. But this will be over time, and there will be some ups and downs along the way, rather than anything like linear, upward growth. Our hobby has clearly been growing--take a look at some of the auction catalogues from the bigger auction companies of today, versus the early 2000's. There is no comparison in the volume and diversity of the lots offered.
Collectible coins have risen in value in cycles, with the popularity of any given series gaining and waning over time. Generally, however, the down end of the cycle for a truly classic, collectible item leaves it higher than when the up cycle started, albeit lower than its peak. I recently reread portions of Paul Green and Kit Kiefer's 1994 "101 Ways to Make Money in the Trading Card Market RIGHT NOW!" mostly for laughs, as most of the time, these two hadn't a clue concerning lasting value (one of the short chapters was titled, "Sell black and whites," because black and white cards "just do not sell." Perhaps the recent buyers of the T210 Jackson at nearly $200,000, the ExMt and VgEx+ Ruth rookies at $100,000 and $75,000 should have been so advised before their purchases!). Anyway, the authors commented therein at that time that T206 commons in Vg, despite the figures given in price guides of about $12, actually changed hands at only $2 to $5. I haven't been a member of PSA for some time, so the info I have from that source is not the most up to date, but a relatively recent SMR pegged the value of such cards at $50 each.
The economy has dimished disposable income, which has hurt the more available classic cards (although we all know of rare and significant cards that have soared) in the short term, but I think you'll see definite long-term growth that will be worthwhile, if not spectacular for these. Just don't buy them today and think you'll be able to flip them for significant profits 2-3 years from now.
Just my $1.50's worth!
Best always,
Larry
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